New Census Data Tracks State Population Increase

• July 29th, 2019

New Census Data Tracks State Population Increase

The state of Alabama has seen a 6.9 percent population increase since the 1990 Census, according to statistics released this week by the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC) at The University of Alabama.

The newly available 1997 figures show that Alabama is growing, but not as fast as the nation at 7.6 percent or the south at 10.2 percent, said Center Manager Annette Watters. The ASDC is a division of UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration that works closely with the U.S. Census Bureau. Watters is also chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based national State Data Center.

Which county posts a No. 1 ranking in regard to its population? Well, said Watters, that depends on how you read the numbers.

“Jefferson is Alabama’s largest county, with 658,664 people,” Watters said. “But Shelby County added the most people – 36,083 since 1990 – and had the highest growth rate – a 36.3 percent increase in population.

“Madison County added the second largest number of people, but Baldwin County had the second highest growth rate,” she continued. “New residents are clearly heading to Shelby, Madison and Baldwin counties.

“In general, you’ll find that counties in Alabama that are part of a metro area are growing faster than are non-metropolitan counties.”

Watters said Lee County is the state’s fifth fastest growing county and one of only two in the top 10 fastest growing counties that is not part of a metropolitan statistical area, adding, “After the 2000 Census, Lee County, which is near Columbus, Ga., is likely to be designated a metro area.”

Watters noted that most of the state’s growth came from just a few counties. For example, Jefferson County is home to 15 percent of the state’s entire population, and the Birmingham metro area considered as a whole accounts for 21 percent of the state’s population.

“Put another way, more than one out of every five Alabamians live in the Birmingham metro area,” Watters said. “Only 14 of Alabama’s 67 counties account for 75 percent of all the population growth in the state over the last seven years.”

Watters explained that population gains come from people moving or being born into an area, while losses come from people moving away or dying. “Most changes in general occur because of movers, not through natural increases or decreases,” she said. “People move primarily for job or educational reasons.”

And, she added, people don’t always live in the counties where they work. Good Alabama examples are Autauga and Elmore counties, home to many Montgomery County workers and part of the Montgomery metropolitan area. Both rank in the state’s top five in percentage increases during this decade; Elmore has grown by 22.5 percent (11,062 people) and Autauga by 20.7 percent (7,084 people).

In looking at the entire state, Watters said, 57 of the 67 counties have seen some population gain since 1990. All 10 of the counties recording population losses have shown continuing downward trends for some time.

“Calhoun County, on the other hand, is showing a turnaround in its trend,” noted the Center manager. “Earlier in the decade it had substantial population loss related to announcements about closing military facilities located there. But Calhoun County’s basic economic strength has reversed that population decline and the area now shows modest growth.

“As the decade progresses, the population should continue to grow.”

The Center for Business and Economic Research is a division of research and service of UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration. The Alabama State Data Center works closely with the U.S. Census Bureau to track demographic, economic and population statistics. Periodically, CBER publishes the Economic Abstract of Alabama, which provides voluminous data on many aspects of Alabama’s economy.

The Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1924. Its Manderson Graduate School of Business has received repeated positive recognition in the 1990s from such publications as Business Week, The Princeton Review and The Gourman Report.

Alabama's Resident Population                                        Rank
                                       Rank          Rank             by
                      1990       1997   by   Number by No. Percent  Growth
                    Census             Size  Change  Incr.  Change   Rate
                 _____________________ ____ _______ _____  ______    _____
Alabama          4,040,389  4,319,154       278,765          6.9%

Autauga County      34,222     41,306    29   7,084   13    20.7%      5
Baldwin County      98,280    128,842     7  30,562    3    31.1%      2
Barbour County      25,417     26,782    40   1,365   33     5.4%     27
Bibb County         16,576     18,588    50   2,012   27    12.1%      9
Blount County       39,248     45,081    27   5,833   16    14.9%      6
Bullock County      11,042     11,270    66     228   50     2.1%     45
Butler County       21,892     21,692    46   (200)   63    -0.9%     61
Calhoun County     116,032    117,092     8   1,060   38     0.9%     52
Chambers County     36,876     36,825    32    (51)   59    -0.1%     58
Cherokee County     19,543     21,590    47   2,047   26    10.5%     14

Chilton County      32,458     36,349    34   3,891   19    12.0%     11
Choctaw County      16,018     15,894    55   (124)   61    -0.8%     60
Clarke County       27,240     28,489    39   1,249   36     4.6%     31
Clay County         13,252     13,832    60     580   45     4.4%     35
Cleburne County     12,730     14,092    58   1,362   34    10.7%     13
Coffee County       40,240     41,980    28   1,740   31     4.3%     36
Colbert County      51,666     53,047    22   1,381   32     2.7%     43
Conecuh County      14,054     14,083    59      29   56     0.2%     56
Coosa County        11,063     11,554    65     491   46     4.4%     34
Covington County    36,478     37,362    31     884   44     2.4%     44

Crenshaw County     13,635     13,645    61      10   57     0.1%     57
Cullman County      67,613     74,241    16   6,628   14     9.8%     15
Dale County         49,633     49,107    25   (526)   65    -1.1%     63
Dallas County       48,130     47,133    26   (997)   66    -2.1%     65
DeKalb County       54,651     57,752    21   3,101   22     5.7%     25
Elmore County       49,210     60,272    20  11,062    6    22.5%      3
Escambia County     35,518     36,487    33     969   41     2.7%     42
Etowah County       99,840    104,313    10   4,473   18     4.5%     33
Fayette County      17,962     18,176    51     214   53     1.2%     50
Franklin County     27,814     29,613    37   1,799   30     6.5%     20

Geneva County       23,647     24,828    41   1,181   37     5.0%     29
Greene County       10,153      9,902    67   (251)   64    -2.5%     66
Hale County         15,498     16,390    53     892   43     5.8%     23
Henry County        15,374     15,636    57     262   49     1.7%     48
Houston County      81,331     85,163    12   3,832   21     4.7%     30
Jackson County      47,796     50,751    23   2,955   24     6.2%     21
Jefferson County   651,520    658,664     1   7,144   12     1.1%     51
Lamar County        15,715     15,759    56      44   54     0.3%     54
Lauderdale County   79,661     84,241    13   4,580   17     5.7%     24
Lawrence County     31,513     33,386    35   1,873   28     5.9%     22

Lee County          87,146     98,501    11  11,355    5    13.0%      8
Limestone County    54,135     60,700    19   6,565   15    12.1%     10
Lowndes County      12,658     12,881    63     223   51     1.8%     47
Macon County        24,928     23,314    45 (1,614)   67    -6.5%     67
Madison County     238,912    272,293     3  33,381    2    14.0%      7
Marengo County      23,084     23,503    44     419   47     1.8%     46
Marion County       29,830     30,813    36     983   40     3.3%     41
Marshall County     70,832     78,893    14   8,061   11    11.4%     12
Mobile County      378,643    398,276     2  19,633    4     5.2%     28
Monroe County       23,968     24,186    42     218   52     0.9%     53

Montgomery County  209,085    217,597     4   8,512    9     4.1%     37
Morgan County      100,043    108,304     9   8,261   10     8.3%     17
Perry County        12,759     12,642    64   (117)   60    -0.9%     62
Pickens County      20,699     20,964    48     265   48     1.3%     49
Pike County         27,595     28,604    38   1,009   39     3.7%     39
Randolph County     19,881     19,923    49      42   55     0.2%     55
Russell County      46,860     50,719    24   3,859   20     8.2%     18
Shelby County       99,363    135,446     6  36,083    1    36.3%      1
St. Clair County    49,811     60,838    18  11,027    7    22.1%      4
Sumter County       16,174     15,998    54   (176)   62    -1.1%     64

Talladega County    74,109     76,846    15   2,737   25     3.7%     38
Tallapoosa County   38,826     40,148    30   1,322   35     3.4%     40
Tuscaloosa County  150,522    160,760     5  10,238    8     6.8%     19
Walker County       67,670     70,733    17   3,063   23     4.5%     32
Washington County   16,694     17,613    52     919   42     5.5%     26
Wilcox County       13,568     13,537    62    (31)   58    -0.2%     59
Winston County      22,053     23,913    43   1,860   29     8.4%     16

Women Gaining Ground in Business, Education

• July 29th, 2019

Women Gaining Ground in Business, Education

Businesses owned by women now make up 34 percent of all Alabama firms, generating more than $7.6 billion in sales and $1 billion in payroll for the state.

That’s the word this week from the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC), as Women’s History Month draws to a close. Housed in The University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, the Center works in conjunction with the U.S. Census Bureau and serves as part of Alabama’s central reservoir for economic and demographic data, the Center for Business and Economic Research.

“In addition, Alabama’s women-owned business employed 24 percent of all employees in the state, or 79,700 people, in 1992,” said Annette Watters, Center manager and chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based national State Data Center. Watters explained that the ’92 numbers are the latest available figures in these areas.

On the national front, businesses owned by women comprise 33 percent of all domestic firms and 40 percent of all retail and service firms, Watters said. These businesses generated $1.6 trillion in revenues and employed 13.2 million people in 1992.

“Working women are also commanding higher salaries,” Watters noted. “The female-to-male earnings ratio reached a new high in 1996, with a 2.4 percent increase in real median earnings to $23,710.

“That increase brings women to about 74 percent of the median for men, $32,144.”

Women are also working their way into traditionally male-dominated fields. Over a 13-year period, from 1983 to 1996, the proportion of women lawyers increased from 15 to 30 percent, female physicians from 16 to 26 percent, and female economists from 38 to 54 percent.

“Record numbers of mothers are taking to the work force,” continued the Center manager. “In 1996, 70 percent of married women with children worked, compared to only 40 percent in 1970. Of the 3.7 million women who gave birth in 1994, 55 percent were in the labor force the following year.”

On the higher education front, as of 1994 women constituted 55 percent of people awarded bachelor’s degrees, 55 percent of those receiving master’s degrees and 39 percent of doctoral graduates. That indicates an increase from comparable 1971 statistics of 43, 40 and 14 percent, respectively.

“Women pursuing higher education also outnumber men at the state level,” Watters said. “Of students enrolled in public colleges and universities in the state, women make up 55.8 percent of undergraduate students and 59.1 percent of graduate students.

“Overall, women comprise nearly 56 percent of Alabama’s college students,” she said. “And, younger women are more likely than their predecessors or their male counterparts to be educated. Of the overall population, 26 percent of men have bachelor’s degrees, compared to only 21 percent of women.

“However, among 25- to 29-year-olds, 28 percent of women hold bachelor’s degrees, compared to 26 percent of men.”

Women currently outnumber men in Alabama 2.2 million to 2.1 million; in the overall U.S. population, as of 1997 there were 137.2 million women and 131.6 million men. There margins are larger for older Americans: 20.1 million to 14.1 million at ages 65 and over; 2.8 million to 1.1 million at ages 85 and over; and 50,000 to 11,000 among centenarians.

As Alabamians age, Watters said, the margins grow larger: 337,000 women to 220,000 men at ages 65 and over; and 43,780 women to 16,500 men at ages 85 and over.

“Those margins can be accounted for by looking at life expectancy by gender,” she explained. “In 1995, life expectancy for women was 79, compared to 73 years for mean. Projections for 2010 show life expectancy will be 81 years for women and 74 years for men.”

Gone Fishing

• July 29th, 2019

Gone Fishing

Hunting and fishing are part of the culture of Alabama and they also have a sizeable impact on the economy. In 1996 hunters and fishermen in Alabama spent almost $1.45 billion on equipment and trip-related expenditures, compared to only $724 million in 1991. While the total number of persons hunting and fishing in Alabama increased from 1.27 million to 1.33 million, only 4.9 percent, their expenditures increased 91 percent. This can be partly attributed to a healthy economy in the second part of the decade, following several years that were not as robust. Trip-related hunting and fishing expenditures grew 30 percent, while equipment expenditures grew 90 percent. The largest change occurred in the purchases of special equipment such as campers and boats, which showed an increase of 215 percent between 1991 and 1996.

Fishing.  In 1996 fishermen in Alabama spent $835 million on their favorite pastime. Of this total, $363 million was for trip-related expenditures, $426 million for equipment, and $46 million for other items. This “other items” category includes magazine subscriptions, membership dues, land leasing expenses, licenses, stamps, tags, and permits.

Hunting.  In 1996 Alabama hunters spent $610 million. Of this total, trip-related expenditures accounted for $127 million. Trip-related expenditures include food, lodging, transportation, guide fees, land use fees, and equipment rental. Equipment expenditures, which include guns, telescopic sights, ammunition, binoculars, and hunting clothing, were $390 million. Expenditures for other items, such as magazines, books, membership dues, and land leasing expenses, totaled $94 million.

Out-of-state Hunters and Fishermen.  Hunting and fishing also draw a significant number of out-of-state participants. In 1996, 323,000 nonresident anglers enjoyed Alabama waters, accounting for 33 percent of all fishermen. These nonresidents spent 1.99 million days fishing in Alabama, or just over six days per angler. Of these out-of-state fishermen, 219,000 were freshwater anglers, with the remaining 104,000 being strictly saltwater, or both freshwater and saltwater. Also in 1996, 94,000 nonresident hunters spent 704,000 days hunting in Alabama, for an average of 7.5 days per hunter. Of these hunters, 80 percent were big-game hunters, in pursuit of deer or wild turkey. Twenty-eight percent hunted small game, such as squirrels, rabbits, or quail, and 24 percent hunted migratory birds, such as doves, ducks, or geese.

Resident Sportsmen.  In 1996 there were 661,000 Alabama resident anglers. They spent a total of 14.5 million days fishing, for an average of 22 days per angler. In addition, Alabamians spent only five percent of their time fishing outside the state, one of the lowest rates in the country. Alabama hunters spent 6.48 million days hunting in 1996. With 253,000 licensed resident hunters, this is an average of 25.6 days per hunter.

Wildlife Watching.  Wildlife watching is also popular in Alabama. People spent $278.9 million in Alabama in 1996 pursuing their hobby of observing, photographing, or feeding wildlife. They maintain natural areas of special plantings for wildlife and they visit public parks and woodland habitats, lakes and streamsides, brush-covered areas and open fields. Some have specially purchased clothing and equipment, such as off-road vehicles, trail bakes, tents, and backpacking equipment.

Birds attract the attention of the largest number of people. Shorebirds, waterfowl, songbirds, and birds of prey are most popular among bird watchers. Land mammals, such as deer, or other wildlife, such as butterflies, snakes, and turtles, are of interest to other wildlife-watching participants.

Twelve percent of the American adult population enjoys wildlife watching, in equal numbers of men and women. The age group with the most interest are 35-to-44-year-olds, closely followed by 45-to-54-year-olds. People of all income levels enjoy wildlife-watching hobbies, but participation rates among races vary greatly. White individuals are much more likely than African Americans to be wildlife watchers.

With people’s continuing interest in outdoor recreational activities, as well as a relatively strong economy, the high levels of expenditures in Alabama established in 1996 should continue. Alabama’s long seasons, abundant public access to hunting and fishing opportunities, and moderate weather mean that wildlife-associated recreation will continue to have a positive impact on the state’s economy.

Brett Nix
Graduate Research Assistant

Learning for Life – Learning for a Living

• July 29th, 2019

Are College Degrees in Line with Occupational Projections?

Learning for Life – Learning for a Living

Colleges provide their students many kinds of insights and knowledge. Professors emphasize that what students learn in class, they learn for life. An alma mater generously nurtures her pupils with wisdom.

But in these times, is wisdom enough? A recent report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects the demand for certain occupations for the years 1996-2006. It would be in the interest of both students and society as a whole if Alabama’s supply of college graduates matched the demands of Alabama’s labor market. This article limits the comparison of supply and demand to three fields: 1) Computer & Information Sciences, 2) Health Professionals & Related Sciences, and 3) Psychology.

The Alabama Commission on Higher Education (ACHE) reports the following numbers of students graduated from a public or private four-year college in Alabama between 1991 and 1996.

Source: Alabama Commission on Higher Education and Center for Business and Economic Research.

Extrapolating past trends into the future gives us a ballpark figure of the expected number of students who will earn undergraduate degrees from Alabama’s colleges in the respective areas of study within the next 10 years. However, a degree with a certain major does not automatically dictate a certain profession. For example, the study of psychology is useful not only for psychologists, but also for marketing, advertising, or religious vocations. Computer science professions might be filled by engineers or business students. That kind of overlap complicates the relationship between labor supply and demand, but we are still able to draw some broad conclusions.

We used new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate Alabama’s occupational demand, even though BLS provides only nationwide numbers. We assumed that the demand for nurses, psychologists and computer experts is a function of the number of people living in a specific area. Since Alabama accounts for 1.62 percent of the U.S. population, we multiplied the BLS job projections by 1.62 percent. In addition to the new jobs that are supposed to be created, the state will need replacements for people retiring or changing jobs. The following table lists the projected demand in the labor market for our three occupational areas:

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research.

Our research assumes that short-term supply and demand patterns will not change dramatically-no cataclysmic natural disasters, economic depressions, or wars. If existing trends continue: * The near future supply of employees with profound computer skills will fall seriously short of demand. * Realizing that not all health occupations require a college degree, demand and supply for health occupations are fairly in line. * Even though several professions can profitably employ psychology majors, Alabama may be heading to a serious oversupply in that field. (See Table 3 for numbers.)

Source: The University of Alabama, Center for Business and Economic Research.

A comparison for a single state, such as the overview we have done, has many shortcomings, since students do not stop at a state’s border when they are looking for jobs. Nevertheless, the differentials between supply and demand ratios for some fields of study should give pause whether Alabama students are on the right track for occupations of the future.

Stephan Droxner
Graduate Research Assistant

The Alabama Economy: A Revised 1998 Forecast

• July 29th, 2019

The Alabama Economy: A Revised 1998 Forecast

The current economic expansion that began in March of 1991 will be entering its 90th month in August, and is already the second longest peace-time expansion on record. (The longest is the December 1982 to June 1990 expansion.) The question is: How much longer can we realistically expect this expansion to continue? In 1998 Alabama’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than in the past several years.

Gross State Product Growth

Alabama’s GSP in 1998 was initially expected to increase at about 3.1 percent versus 3.2 percent for the United States. Strongest growth was expected in the construction sector and in the manufacture of both electrical and nonelectrical machinery and motor vehicles. However, the General Motors strike that has impacted the Dephi plants in the state, and the Japanese recession that has impacted the export sector have lowered expectations for manufacturing industries. Although real output of motor vehicles and related industries will rise, it will be down slightly from our initial forecast. We now expect a GSP growth rate of approximately 2.6 to 2.7 percent.

GSP Output Increases

The start of construction on a $400 million Boeing plant near Decatur, together with ongoing highway projects, should help boost output of the state’s construction sector in 1998. Output of Alabama’s wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to grow in 1998, but less than in 1997. Services sector output will be a good bit below the 1997 increase.

Alabama’s Gross State Product (GSP) grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent from 1993 through 1997. During the same period, the national average annual growth rate was 3.0 percent for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Even though Alabama’s growth exceeded the national average during the past few years, the state’s 1998 growth will not match the recent past.

Employment Growth

The Alabama economy is expected to add about 28,500 net new nonagricultural jobs in 1998, down from the annual average of 37,738 added from 1993 to 1997. As in 1997, the fastest growing sectors are services, trade, and construction. While durable goodsproducing industries should add approximately 1,700 new jobs, nondurable goods industries will lose close to 2,200 jobs, resulting in a net decline in manufacturing employment. Alabama’s services sector should add the most new jobs in 1998, primarily in business and healthcare-related services. Construction of the Boeing plant, together with other industrial and commercial construction projects in the state’s metropolitan areas, is expected to create 10 percent of total job gains. Employment in wholesale and retail trade is expected to increase in 1998, but not as much as in 1997.

A major factor today in Alabama’s economy is slow growth in the civilian labor force. From 1990 to 1997, Alabama’s population increased by 6.9 percent, low compared to Florida (13.3 percent), Georgia (15.6 percent), North Carolina (12.0 percent), South Carolina (7.9 percent), and Tennessee (10.1 percent). Because relatively fewer people have been moving into Alabama than into our neighboring states, our labor force growth has been constrained. The unemployment rate has been below 3 percent in three of the state’s major metropolitan areas.

Income Growth

While Alabama’s GSP growth and employment growth over the 1993-97 period paralleled U.S. averages, income growth has not kept pace. After recording a growth rate of about 6 percent in 1997, total personal income in Alabama will increase 5.4 percent in 1998. Taking inflation into account, the real rate of growth will be 3.3 percent. By comparison, the U.S. growth rate in personal income for 1997 was 5.8 percent and for 1998 is expected to be 5.6 percent.

Net New Nonagricultural Jobs in Alabama

A major explanation for this slower growth in personal income is rapid employment growth in services and trade sectors. Almost 82 percent of the approximately 34,560 new jobs created in the state in 1997 were in the trade and services sectors. These sectors have average wages that are below the manufacturing sector. Global competition has also added to the slower growth in personal income. There is pressure on domestic firms to control costs, including wage increases for their workers.

William D. Gunther
Ahmad Ijaz

What Does the Euro Mean for Alabama Business?

• July 29th, 2019

What Does the Euro Mean for Alabama Business?

In 1999 Alabama businesses with a global reach will be faced with two unusual problems: year 2000 computer compliance issues, and the “euro,” the new European currency. Although businesses have more than a year to get their computers ready for 2000, the euro will become a fact of life in a few months. Starting January 1, 1999, the euro will be a fully effective currency among the 11 “in” countries of the European Union (EU).

The first 11 countries admitted to the European Monetary Union (EMU) with the euro as their common currency are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The United Kingdom, Sweden, and Denmark are also qualified to join the Union, but due to domestic political pressures they opted not to join in the first phase. Greece did not qualify under the Maastricht Treaty criteria. These four “out” EU countries will probably join by the year 2001. Euro coins and notes start circulating in 2002. As more countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, join the EU, the euro will become more and more important.

Even before the coins and notes begin circulating among residents and tourists, the euro will be a real currency. The currencies of all the “in” countries will be fully convertible to euro and with each other at a fixed exchange rate. Starting in January 1999, all firms conducting business in EMU countries will have to have a system in place capable of pricing, invoicing, and accepting payments in euros. The exchange value of the euro is expected to be approximately 1.10 against the U.S. dollar. However, the true value will not be known until the euro is actively used and traded.

The first 11 “in” countries constitute an economic area with a gross domestic product (GDP) close to that of the United States. Euroland, as EMU countries are generally referred to, will have a combined GDP of $6.3 trillion versus $8.1 trillion for the United States. Euroland’s population will be larger than that of the United States- 290.8 million versus 268.2 million for the United States. The economic clout of this Union is going to have a significant impact on global businesses.

In 1997 Alabama’s exports to EMU countries totaled $964 million, or a little over 14 percent of total state exports. When the remaining four EU countries are included, total exports increase to $1.4 billion, or about 21 percent of the total exports from Alabama.

Euroland’s share of world exports will be much larger than the United States’ share. This new factor, plus the strong initial demand for the euro, could keep its exchange rate value strong against the U.S. dollar. Having a strong euro could provide opportunities for Alabama-based companies to increase their market share by being more price competitive. A common European market with a single currency presents chances for Alabama businesses to increase their exports without the foreign exchange risks of trading with each individual country.

Although exchange rate risk will be eliminated against each individual country, it will continue to exist against the euro itself, however, the exchange rate volatility is expected to dampen. Exporting firms can concentrate more on the overall Euroland economy and less on the business and political cycles of each individual country. A single currency will offer Alabama businesses greater investment and borrowing opportunities due to removal of currency restrictions and more transparent financial markets.

However, new opportunities in Euroland also present new challenges. If the exchange value of the euro compared to the U.S. dollar is low (instead of high, as expected), euro-based firms could then undersell their U.S.-based competitors. During the transition period, from 1999 to 2002, the euro will be in effect at the wholesale level only. It will be introduced at retail in 2002. Businesses will have to determine what share of their Euroland trade is considered wholesale and what portion is retail. Also, with this new single currency, firms doing business in more than one of these 11 countries will have to keep their prices uniform. Price differentials based on exchange rates will not be possible within EMU countries and could affect a dollar-based firm’s profit margins. Despite these challenges, a single market of this size will present tremendous opportunities for Alabama businesses involved in international trade.

Ahmad Ijaz

**09/98

Alabama’s Tax Burden

• July 29th, 2019

Alabama’s Tax Burden

State Tax Revenues

Tax collections per resident by the State of Alabama were among the lowest in the nation in Fiscal Year 1997. According to data recently released by the Census Bureau, state tax revenues totaled $5.48 billion, or $1,269.78 for each man, woman, or child in Alabama. This compares to an average of $1,660.36 for the United States as a whole. Alabama ranked 46th on state taxes paid per person, ahead of only New Hampshire, South Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee. State taxes were highest in Alaska and Hawaii, and among the contiguous states, in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Delaware.

Across the nation, an average of 33.7 percent of state tax revenues came from general sales taxes in FY 1997, with 32.7 percent from individual income taxes. The other primary state revenue sources were selective sales taxes on items, including alcoholic beverages, insurance premiums, motor fuels, public utilities, and tobacco, generating 15.5 percent of revenues nationwide.

Alabama’s tax structure differs substantially from that of the average state. Individual income taxes brought in 30.8 percent of state tax revenues in FY 1997. At $390.74 per capita, Alabama’s income tax burden ranked 38th, higher than five states that tax income (Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Tennessee) and seven states with no state income tax. General sales tax revenues to the state amounted to 27.4 percent of total tax revenues, for an average of $348.63 per person, higher only than Vermont and Virginia among states that tax general sales. Five states do not have a general sales tax.

The primary difference in Alabama’s state tax structure falls in the selective sales tax category, where Alabama generates 24.8 percent of its revenue compared to 15.5 percent for the average state. Public utilities sales taxes are especially high, with the average Alabamian paying $95.87 in FY 1997 compared to the average across all states of $32.22. Only residents of Hawaii, New Jersey, and West Virginia paid more. Sales taxes on alcoholic beverages brought in $27.09 per capita compared to an average of $13.77 nationwide, while taxes on tobacco products amounted to an average of $16.18 in Alabama compared to $27.89 for all states. Taxes on insurance premiums and motor fuels were slightly above average.

Total Tax Revenues

Of course, state tax revenues do not tell the whole story of the tax burden. Federal taxes are the largest share of the cost, while there are local tax revenues from sources such as property taxes and the local portion of the general sales tax. Recent data from the Tax Foundation provide an estimate of tax burdens across states. Total taxes in Alabama (federal, state, and local) for Fiscal Year 1998 averaged an estimated $7,468 per person, compared to the U.S. average of $9,881. Of this total, $5,322 was paid in federal taxes and $2,146 as state and local taxes. Total taxes took up 32.9 percent of the income of the average Alabama resident, compared to 35.4 percent across all states. At 9.5 percent of income in FY 1998, the state and local burden brought Alabama a 46th place ranking. Only residents of Alaska, New Hampshire, Tennessee, and Wyoming spent a smaller percentage of income in the form of state and local taxes. State and local taxes cost the average American 11.4 percent of their income in FY 1998.

However, Alabama’s federal tax burden was close to average, amounting to an estimated 23.5 percent of per capita income in FY 1998, compared to the national average of 24.0 percent. The state ranked 39th in federal tax burden in FY 1997. An estimated increase in federal taxes paid by the average Alabamian of 3.5 percent from 1997 to 1998, compared to a 3.1 percent increase for the United States as a whole, would drop the state’s ranking to 38th in FY 1998.

Carolyn Trent

**09/98

Good Education for Good Jobs

• July 29th, 2019

Good Education for Good Jobs

Educational attainment is one of the most important influences on economic well-being. More education tends to reflect greater socioeconomic success for individuals and for the state. The good news is that recent estimates from the Census Bureau show Alabama’s educational level improving. In fact, there is a dramatic improvement in educational attainment by those groups who have historically been less educated. The findings are based on a survey conducted in 1997 and refer to the population 25 years old and over.

In 1990 one out of every three Alabama adults did not have as much as a high school education. By 1997 that average had dropped to about one out of five. Alabama’s overall educational level remains below the national average, but is catching up. Significant differences remain with regard to age and race, but the percentages of whites and blacks with a high school education attained a record level in 1997. Among whites in the state, 81 percent were high school graduates or more, different from the 67 percent recorded for blacks. The black/white educational attainment gap is narrowing as the proportion of black students obtaining a high school degree has increased considerably during the past decade.

Over the last 20 years high school completion among young adults has been higher than earlier periods of Alabama’s history. During the past decade the proportion of the young adult population with a bachelor’s degree has also increased, although more modestly. Younger people tend to be better educated than older Alabamians. The educational level of the total adult population will continue to rise for some time, as younger, more educated, age groups replace older, less educated ones.

There are also educational differences between men and women in the state, and some of the differences seem unexpected. Women in Alabama are just as likely as men to have a college degree. Nationally, more men than women have a bachelor’s degree or more. College-educated people are fewer in Alabama than average for the nation. We are narrowing the gap, but we have a long way to go. Nineteen percent of Alabama adults have a bachelor’s degree or more, compared to 24 percent nationwide.

The South has the lowest educational attainment level of any region of the country. Of the bottom tier of states by percent of high school graduates (Alabama, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky), only Rhode Island is not a Southern state. Educational attainment and economic well-being are closely linked. Average earnings increase at each progressively higher level of education. This relationship holds true not only for the entire population, but also across each subgroup of gender and race.

It is important for Alabama to continue to increase its educational levels because education yields returns to the state as well as to the individual. Research and development, innovative business practices, and technology advances are some of the offerings of a well-educated population. High employment levels in well-paying jobs are other advantages. Product design, market research, engineering, tooling, transportation, and advertising: these functions can employ more people-and at higher wages- than the factories that produce tangible goods. Most of these business services jobs require education beyond high school. How well Alabamians are educated will strongly influence both the state’s long-term prosperity and the well-being of its labor force.

Educational Attainment in the South, 1997
    (persons aged 25 years old and over)

Percent of the adult population who have:
             High School Diploma,         Bachelor's Degree,
                        or More                      or More

Alabama                  77.6                       19.3
Florida                  81.4                       21.7
Georgia                  78.8                       22.3
Mississippi              77.5                       20.9
North Carolina           78.4                       22.6
South Carolina           77.3                       19.2
Tennessee                76.1                       17.1
U.S. Average             82.1                       23.9



Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census, P20-505, Table 13.

Annette Jones Watters

**12/98

Alabama Shows Dramatic Improvement in Education Attainment; State Remains Below National Average But Is Catching Up

• July 29th, 2019

Alabama Shows Improvement in Black Education; Two Counties National Leaders in Percent of Black Citizens

• July 29th, 2019

Alabama Shows Improvement in Black Education; Two Counties National Leaders in Percent of Black Citizens

Estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in advance of Black History Month show black Americans are improving in educational attainment, although blacks still lag behind whites, the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama reports.

“The educational attainment level of the black population in Alabama has been rising through the decade,” said Annette Jones Watters, assistant director of the Center for Business and Economic Research and manager of the Alabama State Data Center in UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration. “We continue to see that trend.”

In the state, 73 percent of black adults have at least a high school diploma compared to 81 percent of whites. Nationally, 88 percent of blacks ages 25 to 29 were high school graduates in 1998. The racial gap in education on the national level has narrowed to the point where there is no statistical difference in whites and blacks between the ages of 25 and 29, the Census Bureau reports.

The Census Bureau counts the U.S. population every 10 years. Between censuses, the Bureau produces estimates on population trends. The Bureau packaged some of the prior estimates in advance of Black History Month, celebrated annually throughout the month of February. Most of the estimates focus on national trends.

“A lot of what is estimated at the national level is not estimated at the state level,” Watters said.

Recent population estimates for the state of Alabama show two Alabama counties are national leaders in percentage of black residents. Macon County has the second highest percentage (86.4 percent) of blacks in the nation. Only Mississippi’s Jefferson County (87 percent) has a higher percent of its population made up of blacks.

Alabama’s Greene County ranks fifth in the nation for percent black population at 81 percent. Claibourne County, Miss., (82 percent) and Hancock County, Ga., (82 percent) rank third and fourth nationally.

Alabama’s Jefferson County has the highest total black population in the state, with 242,653 black residents. The county has had a 6.2 percent increase in black population this decade. Mobile, Montgomery, Madison and Tuscaloosa counties round out the top five Alabama counties in black population.

“People find Jefferson County an attractive place to live,” Watters said. “The county’s population is increasing and African Americans find it an easy place to find a good home.”

Dallas County, Ala., shows an increase in the percent black population (59.3 percent) although the total population has decreased in the county. The other nine counties with a majority black population are Macon (86.4 percent), Greene (81.0), Lowndes (75.7), Bullock (72.9), Sumter (71.8), Wilcox (69.6), Perry (66.3), Hale (60.7) and Marengo (52.4).

The University of Alabama’s business school, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1923. Its Center for Business and Economic Research was created in 1930, and since that time has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its broad base of socioeconomic information. This enables it to serve as a reservoir for business, economic and demographic data.

Annette Jones Watters
Assistant Director, Center for Business and Economic Research
and Manager, Alabama State Data Center