Established in 1930, each issue contains a free quarterly Alabama economic forecast update.
Economic Outlook Update:
➢ Alabama’s economy grew by 34.6 percent in the third quarter 2020, following a 3.2 percent drop in the first quarter and a 29.6 drop in the second. Fourth quarter growth is expected to be around 3.5 to 4.0 percent. For the year, the state’s economy is estimated to drop by about 3.0 percent.
➢ The State gained 6,200 jobs in December over the previous month, bringing the total net loss of jobs to 34,200 from December 2019 to December 2020, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 3.6 percent in December 2019 to 6.7 percent in December 2020.
➢ The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed workers, based on a household survey, rose from 61,530 in December 2019 to 87,534 in December 2020. However, the state has made a significant improvement in reducing the number of unemployed during the second half of 2020.
➢ Total nonfarm employment is forecast to drop by about 1.6 percent in 2020, with most of the job losses in manufacturing; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services providing sectors that cater specifically to consumers and business related expenditures. Some manufacturing industries will also continue to experience a net loss in jobs, particularly industries that are export-oriented and rely on inputs from abroad. Overall nonfarm employment will rise 1.5 percent in 2021.
➢ Overall, the state’s economy is forecast to grow by 3.1 percent in 2021.
➢ After increasing by 5.0 percent in fiscal year 2019-2020, state tax revenues will increase by 3.8 percent in FY2021.
First Quarter 2021