Established in 1930, each issue contains a free quarterly Alabama economic forecast update.
Economic Outlook Update:
➢ The State gained 42,300 jobs in June, following a gain of 42,500 in May, resulting in a total job loss of 119,500 from year ago levels. In May, total job losses were 161,500 from year ago levels, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate drop from 9.6 percent in May to 7.5 percent in June. State’s unemployment rate was 2.9 percent in June 2019.
➢ The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed workers, based on the household survey, declined from 216,043 in May to 165,770 in June. A year ago, in May 2019, the number of unemployed people totaled 65,389.
➢ Total nonfarm employment is forecast to drop by about 2.3 percent in 2020, with most of the job losses in retailing, leisure and hospitality, and other services providing sectors that cater specifically to consumers and business travelers. Some manufacturing industries also continue to experience a loss in jobs, particularly industries that are export-oriented and rely on inputs imported from abroad. However, the policy responses to the COVID-19 virus in the coming months can substantially alter the current forecast.
➢ Overall, the state’s economy is forecast to drop by approximately 5.0 percent in 2020, significantly below the 2.3 percent rate of growth seen in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2018. Alabama’s economy grew by 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter 2019.
➢ After increasing by 5.9 percent in fiscal year 2018-2019, state tax revenues will increase by around 1.0 to 1.5 percent in FY2020, depending on how rapidly the pandemic can be brought under control.