Alabama Business

Established in 1930, each issue contains a free quarterly Alabama economic forecast update.

Economic Outlook Update:

Alabama Business | Fourth Quarter | December 2020

➢ Alabama’s economy declined by 29.6 percent in the second quarter of 2020, following a 3.2 percent drop in the first quarter. During the third quarter, the economy will most like expand by 20 to 25 percent and by about 3 percent for the fourth quarter, for the year, the state’s economy is estimated to drop by about 2.0 percent.

➢ The State gained 25,500 jobs in October over the previous month, bringing the total net loss of jobs to 51,500 from October 2019, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 6.7 percent in September to 5.8 percent in October. A year ago, the state’s unemployment rate was 2.7 percent.

➢ The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed workers, based on a household survey, declined from 153,338 in September to 130,329 in October. In October 2019, the number of unemployed people totaled 61,210.

➢ Total nonfarm employment is forecast to drop by about 2.5 percent in 2020, with most of the job losses in manufacturing; healthcare and social assistance; accommodation and food services and government entities. Some export oriented manufacturing industries will also continue to experience a net loss in jobs, particularly industries that also rely on inputs from abroad.

➢ Overall, the state’s economy is forecast to drop by approximately 2.0 percent in 2020, significantly below the 2.4 percent rate of growth seen in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2018.

➢ After increasing by 5.0 percent in fiscal year 2019-2020, state tax revenues will increase by 3.0 to 4.0 percent in FY2021.

Quarterly Report

First Quarter 2020

Economic Update May 2020

Second Quarter 2020

Third Quarter 2020

Fourth Quarter 2020