Established in 1930, each issue contains a free quarterly Alabama economic forecast update.
Economic Outlook Update:
➢ The State gained 46, 300 jobs from December 2018 to December 2019, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 3.8 percent to 2 .7 percent, bringing total nonfarm employment to
2,112,900. The change in jobs from January 2019 to January 2020 was 19,200.
➢ The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people, based on the household survey, declined from 83,509 in December 2018 to 61,458 in December 2019. During this period, the labor force increased from 2,204,278 to 2,206,198, an increase in the labor force generally tends to push the unemployment rate up. The number of unemployed people in January 2020 was 61,114.
➢ Total nonfarm employment is forecast to drop by about 2.0 percent in 2020, with most of the job losses in retailing, leisure and hospitality, and other services providing sectors that cater specifically to consumers. Some manufacturing industries will also experience a loss in jobs, particularly industries that are export-oriented and rely on inputs imported from abroad. However, the policy responses to the COVID-19 virus in the coming months can substantially alter the current forecast.
➢ Overall, the state’s economy is forecast to drop by approximately 3.8 percent in 2020, significantly below the 2.3 percent rate of growth seen in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2018. Alabama’s economy grew by 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter.
➢ After increasing by 5.9 percent in fiscal year 2018-2019, state tax revenues will increase by around 2.0 to 3.0 percent in FY2020, revised down from previous forecast for the year of 5.0 percent.