Category: Research Library

Gone Fishing

  • July 29th, 2019

Gone Fishing


Hunting and fishing are part of the culture of Alabama and they also have a sizeable impact on the economy. In 1996 hunters and fishermen in Alabama spent almost $1.45 billion on equipment and trip-related expenditures, compared to only $724 million in 1991. While the total number of persons hunting and fishing in Alabama increased from 1.27 million to 1.33 million, only 4.9 percent, their expenditures increased 91 percent. This can be partly attributed to a healthy economy in the second part of the decade, following several years that were not as robust. Trip-related hunting and fishing expenditures grew 30 percent, while equipment expenditures grew 90 percent. The largest change occurred in the purchases of special equipment such as campers and boats, which showed an increase of 215 percent between 1991 and 1996.

Fishing.  In 1996 fishermen in Alabama spent $835 million on their favorite pastime. Of this total, $363 million was for trip-related expenditures, $426 million for equipment, and $46 million for other items. This “other items” category includes magazine subscriptions, membership dues, land leasing expenses, licenses, stamps, tags, and permits.

Hunting.  In 1996 Alabama hunters spent $610 million. Of this total, trip-related expenditures accounted for $127 million. Trip-related expenditures include food, lodging, transportation, guide fees, land use fees, and equipment rental. Equipment expenditures, which include guns, telescopic sights, ammunition, binoculars, and hunting clothing, were $390 million. Expenditures for other items, such as magazines, books, membership dues, and land leasing expenses, totaled $94 million.

Out-of-state Hunters and Fishermen.  Hunting and fishing also draw a significant number of out-of-state participants. In 1996, 323,000 nonresident anglers enjoyed Alabama waters, accounting for 33 percent of all fishermen. These nonresidents spent 1.99 million days fishing in Alabama, or just over six days per angler. Of these out-of-state fishermen, 219,000 were freshwater anglers, with the remaining 104,000 being strictly saltwater, or both freshwater and saltwater. Also in 1996, 94,000 nonresident hunters spent 704,000 days hunting in Alabama, for an average of 7.5 days per hunter. Of these hunters, 80 percent were big-game hunters, in pursuit of deer or wild turkey. Twenty-eight percent hunted small game, such as squirrels, rabbits, or quail, and 24 percent hunted migratory birds, such as doves, ducks, or geese.

Resident Sportsmen.  In 1996 there were 661,000 Alabama resident anglers. They spent a total of 14.5 million days fishing, for an average of 22 days per angler. In addition, Alabamians spent only five percent of their time fishing outside the state, one of the lowest rates in the country. Alabama hunters spent 6.48 million days hunting in 1996. With 253,000 licensed resident hunters, this is an average of 25.6 days per hunter.

Wildlife Watching.  Wildlife watching is also popular in Alabama. People spent $278.9 million in Alabama in 1996 pursuing their hobby of observing, photographing, or feeding wildlife. They maintain natural areas of special plantings for wildlife and they visit public parks and woodland habitats, lakes and streamsides, brush-covered areas and open fields. Some have specially purchased clothing and equipment, such as off-road vehicles, trail bakes, tents, and backpacking equipment.

Birds attract the attention of the largest number of people. Shorebirds, waterfowl, songbirds, and birds of prey are most popular among bird watchers. Land mammals, such as deer, or other wildlife, such as butterflies, snakes, and turtles, are of interest to other wildlife-watching participants.

Twelve percent of the American adult population enjoys wildlife watching, in equal numbers of men and women. The age group with the most interest are 35-to-44-year-olds, closely followed by 45-to-54-year-olds. People of all income levels enjoy wildlife-watching hobbies, but participation rates among races vary greatly. White individuals are much more likely than African Americans to be wildlife watchers.

With people’s continuing interest in outdoor recreational activities, as well as a relatively strong economy, the high levels of expenditures in Alabama established in 1996 should continue. Alabama’s long seasons, abundant public access to hunting and fishing opportunities, and moderate weather mean that wildlife-associated recreation will continue to have a positive impact on the state’s economy.

Brett Nix
Graduate Research Assistant

Learning for Life – Learning for a Living

  • July 29th, 2019

Are College Degrees in Line with Occupational Projections?

Learning for Life – Learning for a Living


Colleges provide their students many kinds of insights and knowledge. Professors emphasize that what students learn in class, they learn for life. An alma mater generously nurtures her pupils with wisdom.

But in these times, is wisdom enough? A recent report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects the demand for certain occupations for the years 1996-2006. It would be in the interest of both students and society as a whole if Alabama’s supply of college graduates matched the demands of Alabama’s labor market. This article limits the comparison of supply and demand to three fields: 1) Computer & Information Sciences, 2) Health Professionals & Related Sciences, and 3) Psychology.

The Alabama Commission on Higher Education (ACHE) reports the following numbers of students graduated from a public or private four-year college in Alabama between 1991 and 1996.

Table 1: Undergraduates from Alabama Universities (“Supply”)
Avg. Number of Graduates per year (1991-96) Avg. Increase per year (linear trend 1991-96) Accumulated Supply 1997-2006
(if trend continues)
Computer & Information Sciences 482 +12 5,510
Health Professionals & Related Sciences 1,759 +178 31,190
Psychology 810 +45 11,655

Source: Alabama Commission on Higher Education and Center for Business and Economic Research.

Extrapolating past trends into the future gives us a ballpark figure of the expected number of students who will earn undergraduate degrees from Alabama’s colleges in the respective areas of study within the next 10 years. However, a degree with a certain major does not automatically dictate a certain profession. For example, the study of psychology is useful not only for psychologists, but also for marketing, advertising, or religious vocations. Computer science professions might be filled by engineers or business students. That kind of overlap complicates the relationship between labor supply and demand, but we are still able to draw some broad conclusions.

We used new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate Alabama’s occupational demand, even though BLS provides only nationwide numbers. We assumed that the demand for nurses, psychologists and computer experts is a function of the number of people living in a specific area. Since Alabama accounts for 1.62 percent of the U.S. population, we multiplied the BLS job projections by 1.62 percent. In addition to the new jobs that are supposed to be created, the state will need replacements for people retiring or changing jobs. The following table lists the projected demand in the labor market for our three occupational areas:

Table 2: Open Positions in Alabama within the Next 10 Years (“Demand”)
Replacements Needed 1997-2006
(40% of 1996 empl.)
New Jobs Created (1997-2006) Total Demand (sum of replacements and new jobs)
Computer & Information Sciences 11,949 20,866 32,815
Health Professionals & Related Sciences 40,445 31,300 71,745
Psychology 927 178 1,105

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research.

Our research assumes that short-term supply and demand patterns will not change dramatically-no cataclysmic natural disasters, economic depressions, or wars. If existing trends continue: * The near future supply of employees with profound computer skills will fall seriously short of demand. * Realizing that not all health occupations require a college degree, demand and supply for health occupations are fairly in line. * Even though several professions can profitably employ psychology majors, Alabama may be heading to a serious oversupply in that field. (See Table 3 for numbers.)

Table 3: Comparison of Future Labor Supply and Demand in Alabama
Estimated Supply 1997-2006 Projected Demand 1997-2006 Shortage or Surplus over 10-year Period
Computer & Information Sciences 5,510 32,815 27,305 (shortage)
Health Professionals & Related Sciences 31,190 71,745 40,555 (shortage)
Psychology 11,655 1,105 10,550 (surplus)

Source: The University of Alabama, Center for Business and Economic Research.

A comparison for a single state, such as the overview we have done, has many shortcomings, since students do not stop at a state’s border when they are looking for jobs. Nevertheless, the differentials between supply and demand ratios for some fields of study should give pause whether Alabama students are on the right track for occupations of the future.

Stephan Droxner
Graduate Research Assistant

The Alabama Economy: A Revised 1998 Forecast

  • July 29th, 2019

The Alabama Economy: A Revised 1998 Forecast

The current economic expansion that began in March of 1991 will be entering its 90th month in August, and is already the second longest peace-time expansion on record. (The longest is the December 1982 to June 1990 expansion.) The question is: How much longer can we realistically expect this expansion to continue? In 1998 Alabama’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than in the past several years.

Gross State Product Growth

Alabama’s GSP in 1998 was initially expected to increase at about 3.1 percent versus 3.2 percent for the United States. Strongest growth was expected in the construction sector and in the manufacture of both electrical and nonelectrical machinery and motor vehicles. However, the General Motors strike that has impacted the Dephi plants in the state, and the Japanese recession that has impacted the export sector have lowered expectations for manufacturing industries. Although real output of motor vehicles and related industries will rise, it will be down slightly from our initial forecast. We now expect a GSP growth rate of approximately 2.6 to 2.7 percent.

GSP Output Increases

Sector

1998 Output Increase

1997 Output Increase

Construction
Motor vehicles and related industries
Overall manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
Services

12.4 %
5.7 %
2.8 %
2.9 %
3.1 %

9.2 %
6.3 %
3.2 %
3.4 %
4.2 %

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

 

The start of construction on a $400 million Boeing plant near Decatur, together with ongoing highway projects, should help boost output of the state’s construction sector in 1998. Output of Alabama’s wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to grow in 1998, but less than in 1997. Services sector output will be a good bit below the 1997 increase.

Alabama’s Gross State Product (GSP) grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent from 1993 through 1997. During the same period, the national average annual growth rate was 3.0 percent for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Even though Alabama’s growth exceeded the national average during the past few years, the state’s 1998 growth will not match the recent past.

Employment Growth

The Alabama economy is expected to add about 28,500 net new nonagricultural jobs in 1998, down from the annual average of 37,738 added from 1993 to 1997. As in 1997, the fastest growing sectors are services, trade, and construction. While durable goodsproducing industries should add approximately 1,700 new jobs, nondurable goods industries will lose close to 2,200 jobs, resulting in a net decline in manufacturing employment. Alabama’s services sector should add the most new jobs in 1998, primarily in business and healthcare-related services. Construction of the Boeing plant, together with other industrial and commercial construction projects in the state’s metropolitan areas, is expected to create 10 percent of total job gains. Employment in wholesale and retail trade is expected to increase in 1998, but not as much as in 1997.

A major factor today in Alabama’s economy is slow growth in the civilian labor force. From 1990 to 1997, Alabama’s population increased by 6.9 percent, low compared to Florida (13.3 percent), Georgia (15.6 percent), North Carolina (12.0 percent), South Carolina (7.9 percent), and Tennessee (10.1 percent). Because relatively fewer people have been moving into Alabama than into our neighboring states, our labor force growth has been constrained. The unemployment rate has been below 3 percent in three of the state’s major metropolitan areas.

Income Growth

While Alabama’s GSP growth and employment growth over the 1993-97 period paralleled U.S. averages, income growth has not kept pace. After recording a growth rate of about 6 percent in 1997, total personal income in Alabama will increase 5.4 percent in 1998. Taking inflation into account, the real rate of growth will be 3.3 percent. By comparison, the U.S. growth rate in personal income for 1997 was 5.8 percent and for 1998 is expected to be 5.6 percent.

Net New Nonagricultural Jobs in Alabama

Employment Sector
Durable goods manufacturing
Nondurable goods manufacturing
Services
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Jobs Added in 1998
1,700
-2,200
11,450
6,100
5,600
Jobs Added in 1997
1,967
-4,383
20,492
3,425
7,892
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

A major explanation for this slower growth in personal income is rapid employment growth in services and trade sectors. Almost 82 percent of the approximately 34,560 new jobs created in the state in 1997 were in the trade and services sectors. These sectors have average wages that are below the manufacturing sector. Global competition has also added to the slower growth in personal income. There is pressure on domestic firms to control costs, including wage increases for their workers.

William D. Gunther
Ahmad Ijaz

 

What Does the Euro Mean for Alabama Business?

  • July 29th, 2019

What Does the Euro Mean for Alabama Business?


In 1999 Alabama businesses with a global reach will be faced with two unusual problems: year 2000 computer compliance issues, and the “euro,” the new European currency. Although businesses have more than a year to get their computers ready for 2000, the euro will become a fact of life in a few months. Starting January 1, 1999, the euro will be a fully effective currency among the 11 “in” countries of the European Union (EU).

The first 11 countries admitted to the European Monetary Union (EMU) with the euro as their common currency are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The United Kingdom, Sweden, and Denmark are also qualified to join the Union, but due to domestic political pressures they opted not to join in the first phase. Greece did not qualify under the Maastricht Treaty criteria. These four “out” EU countries will probably join by the year 2001. Euro coins and notes start circulating in 2002. As more countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, join the EU, the euro will become more and more important.

Even before the coins and notes begin circulating among residents and tourists, the euro will be a real currency. The currencies of all the “in” countries will be fully convertible to euro and with each other at a fixed exchange rate. Starting in January 1999, all firms conducting business in EMU countries will have to have a system in place capable of pricing, invoicing, and accepting payments in euros. The exchange value of the euro is expected to be approximately 1.10 against the U.S. dollar. However, the true value will not be known until the euro is actively used and traded.

The first 11 “in” countries constitute an economic area with a gross domestic product (GDP) close to that of the United States. Euroland, as EMU countries are generally referred to, will have a combined GDP of $6.3 trillion versus $8.1 trillion for the United States. Euroland’s population will be larger than that of the United States- 290.8 million versus 268.2 million for the United States. The economic clout of this Union is going to have a significant impact on global businesses.

In 1997 Alabama’s exports to EMU countries totaled $964 million, or a little over 14 percent of total state exports. When the remaining four EU countries are included, total exports increase to $1.4 billion, or about 21 percent of the total exports from Alabama.

Euroland’s share of world exports will be much larger than the United States’ share. This new factor, plus the strong initial demand for the euro, could keep its exchange rate value strong against the U.S. dollar. Having a strong euro could provide opportunities for Alabama-based companies to increase their market share by being more price competitive. A common European market with a single currency presents chances for Alabama businesses to increase their exports without the foreign exchange risks of trading with each individual country.

Although exchange rate risk will be eliminated against each individual country, it will continue to exist against the euro itself, however, the exchange rate volatility is expected to dampen. Exporting firms can concentrate more on the overall Euroland economy and less on the business and political cycles of each individual country. A single currency will offer Alabama businesses greater investment and borrowing opportunities due to removal of currency restrictions and more transparent financial markets.

However, new opportunities in Euroland also present new challenges. If the exchange value of the euro compared to the U.S. dollar is low (instead of high, as expected), euro-based firms could then undersell their U.S.-based competitors. During the transition period, from 1999 to 2002, the euro will be in effect at the wholesale level only. It will be introduced at retail in 2002. Businesses will have to determine what share of their Euroland trade is considered wholesale and what portion is retail. Also, with this new single currency, firms doing business in more than one of these 11 countries will have to keep their prices uniform. Price differentials based on exchange rates will not be possible within EMU countries and could affect a dollar-based firm’s profit margins. Despite these challenges, a single market of this size will present tremendous opportunities for Alabama businesses involved in international trade.

Ahmad Ijaz

**09/98

Alabama’s Tax Burden

  • July 29th, 2019

Alabama’s Tax Burden


State Tax Revenues

Tax collections per resident by the State of Alabama were among the lowest in the nation in Fiscal Year 1997. According to data recently released by the Census Bureau, state tax revenues totaled $5.48 billion, or $1,269.78 for each man, woman, or child in Alabama. This compares to an average of $1,660.36 for the United States as a whole. Alabama ranked 46th on state taxes paid per person, ahead of only New Hampshire, South Dakota, Texas, and Tennessee. State taxes were highest in Alaska and Hawaii, and among the contiguous states, in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Delaware.

Across the nation, an average of 33.7 percent of state tax revenues came from general sales taxes in FY 1997, with 32.7 percent from individual income taxes. The other primary state revenue sources were selective sales taxes on items, including alcoholic beverages, insurance premiums, motor fuels, public utilities, and tobacco, generating 15.5 percent of revenues nationwide.

Alabama’s tax structure differs substantially from that of the average state. Individual income taxes brought in 30.8 percent of state tax revenues in FY 1997. At $390.74 per capita, Alabama’s income tax burden ranked 38th, higher than five states that tax income (Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Tennessee) and seven states with no state income tax. General sales tax revenues to the state amounted to 27.4 percent of total tax revenues, for an average of $348.63 per person, higher only than Vermont and Virginia among states that tax general sales. Five states do not have a general sales tax.

The primary difference in Alabama’s state tax structure falls in the selective sales tax category, where Alabama generates 24.8 percent of its revenue compared to 15.5 percent for the average state. Public utilities sales taxes are especially high, with the average Alabamian paying $95.87 in FY 1997 compared to the average across all states of $32.22. Only residents of Hawaii, New Jersey, and West Virginia paid more. Sales taxes on alcoholic beverages brought in $27.09 per capita compared to an average of $13.77 nationwide, while taxes on tobacco products amounted to an average of $16.18 in Alabama compared to $27.89 for all states. Taxes on insurance premiums and motor fuels were slightly above average.

Total Tax Revenues

Of course, state tax revenues do not tell the whole story of the tax burden. Federal taxes are the largest share of the cost, while there are local tax revenues from sources such as property taxes and the local portion of the general sales tax. Recent data from the Tax Foundation provide an estimate of tax burdens across states. Total taxes in Alabama (federal, state, and local) for Fiscal Year 1998 averaged an estimated $7,468 per person, compared to the U.S. average of $9,881. Of this total, $5,322 was paid in federal taxes and $2,146 as state and local taxes. Total taxes took up 32.9 percent of the income of the average Alabama resident, compared to 35.4 percent across all states. At 9.5 percent of income in FY 1998, the state and local burden brought Alabama a 46th place ranking. Only residents of Alaska, New Hampshire, Tennessee, and Wyoming spent a smaller percentage of income in the form of state and local taxes. State and local taxes cost the average American 11.4 percent of their income in FY 1998.

However, Alabama’s federal tax burden was close to average, amounting to an estimated 23.5 percent of per capita income in FY 1998, compared to the national average of 24.0 percent. The state ranked 39th in federal tax burden in FY 1997. An estimated increase in federal taxes paid by the average Alabamian of 3.5 percent from 1997 to 1998, compared to a 3.1 percent increase for the United States as a whole, would drop the state’s ranking to 38th in FY 1998.

Carolyn Trent

**09/98

Good Education for Good Jobs

  • July 29th, 2019

Good Education for Good Jobs


Educational attainment is one of the most important influences on economic well-being. More education tends to reflect greater socioeconomic success for individuals and for the state. The good news is that recent estimates from the Census Bureau show Alabama’s educational level improving. In fact, there is a dramatic improvement in educational attainment by those groups who have historically been less educated. The findings are based on a survey conducted in 1997 and refer to the population 25 years old and over.

In 1990 one out of every three Alabama adults did not have as much as a high school education. By 1997 that average had dropped to about one out of five. Alabama’s overall educational level remains below the national average, but is catching up. Significant differences remain with regard to age and race, but the percentages of whites and blacks with a high school education attained a record level in 1997. Among whites in the state, 81 percent were high school graduates or more, different from the 67 percent recorded for blacks. The black/white educational attainment gap is narrowing as the proportion of black students obtaining a high school degree has increased considerably during the past decade.

Over the last 20 years high school completion among young adults has been higher than earlier periods of Alabama’s history. During the past decade the proportion of the young adult population with a bachelor’s degree has also increased, although more modestly. Younger people tend to be better educated than older Alabamians. The educational level of the total adult population will continue to rise for some time, as younger, more educated, age groups replace older, less educated ones.

There are also educational differences between men and women in the state, and some of the differences seem unexpected. Women in Alabama are just as likely as men to have a college degree. Nationally, more men than women have a bachelor’s degree or more. College-educated people are fewer in Alabama than average for the nation. We are narrowing the gap, but we have a long way to go. Nineteen percent of Alabama adults have a bachelor’s degree or more, compared to 24 percent nationwide.

The South has the lowest educational attainment level of any region of the country. Of the bottom tier of states by percent of high school graduates (Alabama, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky), only Rhode Island is not a Southern state. Educational attainment and economic well-being are closely linked. Average earnings increase at each progressively higher level of education. This relationship holds true not only for the entire population, but also across each subgroup of gender and race.

It is important for Alabama to continue to increase its educational levels because education yields returns to the state as well as to the individual. Research and development, innovative business practices, and technology advances are some of the offerings of a well-educated population. High employment levels in well-paying jobs are other advantages. Product design, market research, engineering, tooling, transportation, and advertising: these functions can employ more people-and at higher wages- than the factories that produce tangible goods. Most of these business services jobs require education beyond high school. How well Alabamians are educated will strongly influence both the state’s long-term prosperity and the well-being of its labor force.

Educational Attainment in the South, 1997
    (persons aged 25 years old and over)

Percent of the adult population who have:
             High School Diploma,         Bachelor's Degree,
                        or More                      or More

Alabama                  77.6                       19.3
Florida                  81.4                       21.7
Georgia                  78.8                       22.3
Mississippi              77.5                       20.9
North Carolina           78.4                       22.6
South Carolina           77.3                       19.2
Tennessee                76.1                       17.1
U.S. Average             82.1                       23.9



Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census, P20-505, Table 13.

Annette Jones Watters

**12/98

Alabama Shows Dramatic Improvement in Education Attainment; State Remains Below National Average But Is Catching Up

  • July 29th, 2019
Alabama Shows Dramatic Improvement in Education Attainment; State Remains Below National Average But Is Catching Up


Estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau show Alabama’s educational level improving, and dramatic improvement is shown in those groups who have historically been less educated, the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama reports.

The findings are based on a survey conducted in 1998 and refer to the population 25 years old and over.

“Educational attainment is one of the most important influences on economic well-being,” says Annette Jones Watters, assistant director of Center for Business and Economic Research and manager of the Alabama State Data Center in UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration.

“More education tends to reflect greater socioeconomic success for individuals and for the state.”

In 1990, one out of every three Alabama adults did not have as much as a high school education. By 1998 that average had dropped to about one out of five. Alabama’s overall educational level remains below the national average, but is catching up.

The census information showed that significant differences remain with regard to age and race, but the percentages of whites and blacks with a high school education attained a record level in 1998. Among whites in the state, 81 percent were high school graduates or more, compared with the 72 percent recorded for blacks. The black/white educational attainment gap is narrowing as the proportion of black students obtaining a high school degree has increased considerably during the past decade.

Over the last 20 years high school completion among young adults has been higher than during earlier periods of Alabama’s history, Watters said. “During the past decade the proportion of the young adult population with a bachelor’s degree has also increased, although more modestly. Younger people tend to be better educated than older Alabamians. The educational level of the total adult population will continue to rise for some time, as younger, more educated age groups replace older, less educated ones.”

College-educated people are fewer in Alabama than the national average, but the gap is closing. Twenty percent of Alabama adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 24 percent nationwide.

The South has the lowest educational attainment level of any region of the country. Of the bottom tier of states by percent of high school graduates (Alabama, Mississippi, New Mexico, Texas, South Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky), only New Mexico is not a Southern state.

Educational attainment and economic well-being are closely linked. Average earnings increase at each progressively higher level of education. For example, in 1997 the national average earnings for people who completed only high school was $22,895. For those with a bachelor’s degree, the average earnings rose to $40,478. This relationship holds true not only for the entire population, but also across each subgroup of gender and race.

“It is important for Alabama to continue to increase its educational levels because education brings returns to the state as well as to individuals,” Watters said. “Research and development, innovative business practices, and technology advances are the results of a well-educated population.”

High employment levels in well-paying jobs result from increased education levels, she added. “Functions such as product design, market research, engineering, tooling, transportation, and advertising can employ more people—and at higher wages—than the factories that produce tangible goods. Most of these business services jobs require education beyond high school. How well Alabamians are educated will strongly influence both the state’s long-term prosperity and the well-being of its labor force.”

**12/98

Alabama Shows Improvement in Black Education; Two Counties National Leaders in Percent of Black Citizens

  • July 29th, 2019

Alabama Shows Improvement in Black Education; Two Counties National Leaders in Percent of Black Citizens


Estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in advance of Black History Month show black Americans are improving in educational attainment, although blacks still lag behind whites, the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama reports.

“The educational attainment level of the black population in Alabama has been rising through the decade,” said Annette Jones Watters, assistant director of the Center for Business and Economic Research and manager of the Alabama State Data Center in UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration. “We continue to see that trend.”

In the state, 73 percent of black adults have at least a high school diploma compared to 81 percent of whites. Nationally, 88 percent of blacks ages 25 to 29 were high school graduates in 1998. The racial gap in education on the national level has narrowed to the point where there is no statistical difference in whites and blacks between the ages of 25 and 29, the Census Bureau reports.

The Census Bureau counts the U.S. population every 10 years. Between censuses, the Bureau produces estimates on population trends. The Bureau packaged some of the prior estimates in advance of Black History Month, celebrated annually throughout the month of February. Most of the estimates focus on national trends.

“A lot of what is estimated at the national level is not estimated at the state level,” Watters said.

Recent population estimates for the state of Alabama show two Alabama counties are national leaders in percentage of black residents. Macon County has the second highest percentage (86.4 percent) of blacks in the nation. Only Mississippi’s Jefferson County (87 percent) has a higher percent of its population made up of blacks.

Alabama’s Greene County ranks fifth in the nation for percent black population at 81 percent. Claibourne County, Miss., (82 percent) and Hancock County, Ga., (82 percent) rank third and fourth nationally.

Alabama’s Jefferson County has the highest total black population in the state, with 242,653 black residents. The county has had a 6.2 percent increase in black population this decade. Mobile, Montgomery, Madison and Tuscaloosa counties round out the top five Alabama counties in black population.

“People find Jefferson County an attractive place to live,” Watters said. “The county’s population is increasing and African Americans find it an easy place to find a good home.”

Dallas County, Ala., shows an increase in the percent black population (59.3 percent) although the total population has decreased in the county. The other nine counties with a majority black population are Macon (86.4 percent), Greene (81.0), Lowndes (75.7), Bullock (72.9), Sumter (71.8), Wilcox (69.6), Perry (66.3), Hale (60.7) and Marengo (52.4).

The University of Alabama’s business school, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1923. Its Center for Business and Economic Research was created in 1930, and since that time has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its broad base of socioeconomic information. This enables it to serve as a reservoir for business, economic and demographic data.

Annette Jones Watters
Assistant Director, Center for Business and Economic Research
and Manager, Alabama State Data Center

Alabama’s Hispanic Population Continues to Increase

  • July 29th, 2019

Alabama’s Hispanic Population Continues to Increase


Alabama was home to 39,304 persons of Hispanic origin as of July 1, 1997, according to estimates released by the Bureau of the Census. These estimates are the official estimates for the state, but they are almost certainly too low. The way the Census Bureau arrives at these estimates has its foundation in the 1990 census and relies on trends that were in effect before 1990. In places where there have been unusual changes in demographic patterns in the past decade, these estimates do not pick up those trends. Many counties in Alabama have had a significant influx of Hispanics during the 1990s, sometimes in support of the poultry industry or another specific industry in a county.

Estimating Demographic Characteristics. The Census Bureau is much better at estimating the demographic characteristics of the nation, or even the states, than counties. The data sources they use for county-level estimates may indicate the total number of people living in that county, but they do not indicate the characteristics of those people-whether they are black, white, Hispanic, etc. In order to make estimates by county by age, or race, or Hispanic origin, the Census Bureau uses a ratio method that assumes the ages, the racial distribution, and the ethnic origin of people in a county have not changed substantially since the last census. When there have been noticeable demographic changes, the estimates don’t pick up the new trends.

International Immigration. At the national level the Census Bureau can track international migration. They can account for how many legal immigrants have come into the country; they can estimate how many illegal immigrants have come in; and they can account for the people who legally emigrated out of the country. But, there is no way to know in which county of which state these people have settled. We will have to wait until the 2000 census for people in Alabama to report about themselves before we will really know about the changing Hispanic population in Alabama.

The 1997 estimate represents an increase of 14,675 over the 24,629 Hispanics counted in Alabama in the 1990 Census. Despite a 59.6 percent increase between 1990 and 1997, Hispanics make up less than one percent of the state’s residents-0.9 percent of an estimated 4,319,154 persons in 1997; up from 0.6 percent in 1990.

Counties with the largest numbers of persons of Hispanic origin in 1997 include Baldwin (2,060), Calhoun (1,925), Dale (1,806), Jefferson (3,999), Madison (5,038), Mobile (4,845), Montgomery (2,500), Shelby (1,136), and Tuscaloosa (1,482). Alabama has ten counties where Hispanics comprise one percent or more of the 1997 population: Autauga (1.1 percent), Baldwin (1.6 percent), Blount (1.2 percent), Calhoun (1.6 percent), Coffee (1.8 percent), Dale (3.7 percent), Madison (1.9 percent), Mobile (1.2 percent), Montgomery (1.1 percent), and Russell (1.0 percent).

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Alabama Per Capita Income Grows 4.2 Percent in 1997

  • July 29th, 2019

Alabama Per Capita Income Grows 4.2 Percent in 1997


Alabama’s per capita income rose a moderate 4.2 percent in 1997, below the U.S. average increase of 4.7 percent. Still, the 4.2 percent increase was more than double the 1.9 percent increase in prices paid by consumers during the year. State per capita income of $20,699 was 81.8 percent of the national average of $25,298. Alabama ranked 39th among the 50 states on per capita income in 1997.

In 1987 Alabama’s per capita income ranked 44th in the nation. Over the past ten years, per capita income in the state has grown at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent, compared to an average growth rate for the United States of 4.7 percent.

States with the strongest growth in per capita income in 1997 include Connecticut (6.3 percent), Texas (6.1 percent), Washington (5.8 percent), Kentucky (5.8 percent), and Massachusetts (5.6 percent). Connecticut, at $35,954, had the highest per capita income among the 50 states, while Mississippi’s $18,087 was the lowest.

Among the 12 states in BEA’s southeastern region, Alabama was sixth in 1997, with South Carolina and Kentucky close behind. Virginia’s per capita income of $26,172 was the highest in the region. Other states ranked in the top five in the Southeast include Florida ($24,795), Georgia ($23,893), North Carolina ($23,174), and Tennessee ($22,752).

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