Alabama’s Population Shows Moderate Gain in 1997

• July 29th, 2019

Alabama’s Population Shows Moderate Gain in 1997

Alabama added 31,976 new residents between July 1, 1996 and July 1, 1997, according to estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Alabama’s 1997 population of 4,319,154 was 0.7 percent higher than the 1996 total of 4,287,178. An estimated 13,212 more people moved into the state than moved out during the year. From the 1990 census through July 1, 1997, the state’s population increase totaled 278,765, a 6.9 percent gain that ranks the state twenty-third in population growth for the 1990s. The 1997 round of population estimates resulted in upward revisions of all of Alabama’s annual estimates since the 1990 census.

Overall, the nation’s population rose 0.9 percent from 1996 to 1997 to total 267,636,061. Led by Nevada’s population gain of 4.8 percent and Arizona’s 2.7 percent increase, the West was the fastest growing region in the country with an average gain of 1.6 percent. California showed the largest numerical increase of any state with 410,000 new residents, representing a 1.3 percent increase. At 1.3 percent, the South ranked second in overall regional growth. Georgia led the South with a population increase of 2.1 percent. Texas posted a 1.8 percent increase, while Florida and North Carolina each gained 1.6 percent. Population growth in the nation’s Midwest region averaged 0.5 percent, while the Northeast saw just a 0.2 percent gain. Pennsylvania’s population was down 20,000, the largest numerical loss of any state.

Census Bureau Definitions for Population Estimates

• July 29th, 2019

Census Bureau Definitions for Population Estimates

Population estimates incorporate revisions of estimates from previous years and the results of special censuses and test censuses conducted by the Census Bureau.

Births – Births are the number of live births occurring to residents of an area during the period as reported from the Census Bureau’s Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) and the National Center for Health Statistics.

Census Regions and Divisions – Statistics for states are totaled for the four census regions and nine census divisions in the top lines of each table.

The Northeast region includes the New England division: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont; and the Middle Atlantic division: New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.

The Midwest region includes the East North Central division: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin; and the West North Central division: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

The South region includes the South Atlantic division: Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia; the East South Central division: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee; and the West South Central division: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas.

The West region includes the Mountain division: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming; and the Pacific division: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington.

Deaths – Deaths are the number of deaths occurring within the resident population of an area during the period as reported by the Census Bureau’s Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) and the National Center for Health Statistics.

Demographic Components of Change – The demographic components of population change consist of natural change and net migration. Natural change is defined as births minus deaths. Net migration is the difference between all forms of migration into and out of an area.

Natural Change – Natural change is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths.

Net Domestic Migration – Net domestic migration (“NDM”) is the difference between domestic in-migration to an area and domestic out-migration from it during the period. Domestic in-migration and out-migration consist of moves where both the origins and destinations are within the United States (excluding Puerto Rico).

Net Federal Movement – Net federal movement is the difference between the movement of federal employees (both military and civilian) and their dependents into and out of the United States (excluding Puerto Rico) during the period.

Net International Migration – Net international migration (“NIM”) is the difference between migration to an area from outside the United States (immigration) and migration from the area to outside the United States (emigration) during the period. For the purposes of these population estimates, the geographic extent of the United States is defined as excluding Puerto Rico. More specifically, net international migration consists of
1) legal immigration to the United States as reported by the Immigration and Naturalization Service,
2) an estimate of net undocumented immigration from abroad,
3) an estimate of emigration from the United States, and
4) net movement between Puerto Rico and the (balance of) the United States.

Net Movement from Abroad – Net movement from abroad is the sum of net international migration and net federal movement during the period.

Population (Census) – The April 1, 1990 census population is a count of the number of persons residing in an area (resident population) as reported in the 1990 Census of Population, or as subsequently revised. Revisions to an area’s 1990 census population count may occur as the result of
1) post-1990 census corrections of political boundaries, geographic misallocations, or documented under-enumerations or over-enumerations, and
2) geographic boundary updates made subsequent to the 1990 census, which include annexations, new incorporations, mergers, etc. The closing date for these two forms of revisions was December, 1996.

Population Change – Population change (“Pop chg”) is the difference between the population of an area at the beginning and end of a period. It is expressed numerically (“Numerical”) and as a percentage (“Percent” or “%”) of the beginning population.

Population (Estimate) – The estimated population is the computed number of persons living in an area (resident population) as of July 1. The estimated population is calculated from a demographic components of change model that incorporates information on natural change (births and deaths) and net migration (net domestic migration and net movement from abroad) that has occurred in the area since the reference date of the 1990 census. Additional information on the methodology used to produce these population estimates is contained in Current Population Reports P25-1127 and at the Census Bureau’s Internet site with URL of http://www.census.gov/population/www/methodep.html.

Resident Population – These population estimates are for the resident population. The resident population of a state includes all residents (both civilian and Armed Forces) living in the state. The geographic universe for the resident population is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. It excludes Puerto Rico and outlying areas under United States jurisdiction. The resident population excludes U.S. citizens residing abroad.

Residual – The subnational estimates are constrained to sum to an independently derived estimate of the national population. The residual is the difference between an area’s population as estimated by the subnational population estimation procedure before and after imposing this constraint. The residual is not a demographic component of population change; rather, it is a statistical artifact of the procedures employed in producing the estimates.

Source: Population Estimates Program, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233, January 9, 1998.

**01/98

The Alabama Economy: 1998

• July 29th, 2019

The Alabama Economy: 1998

Some Background

From 1993 to 1996, Alabama created approximately 150,000 nonagricultural jobs. This translates to 37,460 net new jobs a year, for an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. By comparison, employment at the national level for the same period increased by 1.5 percent annually. Beginning in 1996, however, Alabama’s employment growth dropped well below the average for the period. That slower growth continued in 1997 when the state’s employment increased by 1.1 percent, while the national average was over 2.0 percent. There are two primary reasons for 1997’s slow job creation.

First, job losses offset job gains. That is, job growth is reported as “net.” More than 13,000 apparel jobs lost during 1995-1997 offset the jobs gained in other sectors. In 1997 alone, durable goods industries in Alabama created over 1,300 new jobs, but nondurable goods industries, primarily apparel, lost about 3,300 jobs. Apparel jobs in Alabama continue to be at risk. The recent events that weakened some Asian currencies argue that clothing can be constructed more economically overseas than in Alabama.

Second, the positive news of low unemployment rates simply means that the labor pool is now smaller than it used to be. It is difficult to expand existing operations or recruit new industries without new workers, well-educated or not. Stories abound of firms wishing to expand but unable to do so because of a lack of workers. Alabama has a low natural population growth rate and a low immigration rate. The labor shortages are not going away soon.

The Outlook for 1998

Given the above constraints, Alabama is expected to add about 17,100 net new nonagricultural jobs in 1998. These jobs will occur primarily in the services, trade, and construction sectors. While durable goods-producing industries should add about 800 net new jobs, nondurable goods industries are expected to lose about 3,100 jobs, resulting in a net decline in manufacturing employment.

Alabama’s services sector should add about 8,400 new jobs in 1998, primarily in business and health services. The Boeing plant in Morgan County, together with other industrial and commercial construction projects in the state’s metropolitan areas, will create about 4,000 new jobs in 1998. Employment in wholesale and retail trade will increase by 5,700 in 1998, slightly below the 6,550 new jobs added in 1997.

Almost all the net job growth will occur in the state’s 22 metropolitan counties. The 45 non-metropolitan counties will show slow or negative job growth in 1998.

Ahmad Ijaz and
William D. Gunther

Disabilities in Alabama on the Rise

• July 29th, 2019

Disabilities in Alabama on the Rise

More than one in 10 Alabamians between the ages of 16 and 64 have some kind of disability, according to census figures released this week by the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC).

“If current trends continue, Alabamians 65 and over will make up 16 percent of the state’s total population by the year 2015, compared to about 13 percent currently,” said Annette Watters, ASDC manager. The Center is a division of The University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration that works closely with the U.S. Census Bureau.

“With the population aging and the likelihood of having a disability increasing with age, the growth of the number of people with disabilities can be expected to accelerate in the coming decades,” explained Watters, also chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based National State Data Center.

“In 1990, about 132,346 of an estimated 499,902 people age 65 and over reported some level of disability in this state,” said Watters. “That number is estimated to reach 208,025 in 2015.”

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, a person is considered to have a disability if he or she has difficulty performing certain functions, such as seeing, hearing, talking, walking, climbing stairs and/or lifting and carrying. Other disabilities include difficulty performing activities of daily living or difficulty performing certain social roles, for example doing schoolwork for children or working at a job and around the house for adults.

“People with disabilities are more likely to live in poverty, less likely to have an advanced education, less likely to be employed, less likely to be married and more likely to live alone than the average for all people in the state,” Watters said, adding, “The main likelihood of having a disability is advanced age, but there are also pronounced differences by race.”

In Alabama, 11 percent of the white population between the ages of 16 and 64 has a disability, compared to 18 percent of the black population. After age 65, the disability difference between the races becomes even greater; one-quarter of whites, compared to one-third of blacks over 65, have what the Census Bureau terms “a mobility limitation and/or a self-care limitation.”

However, the difference between the sexes is not as significant: 13 percent of all working age men in Alabama and 12 percent of women in the same group have a disability.

Watters pointed out that not all people with disabilities receive public assistance.

“People may be surprised to learn that more than three-quarters of Americans aged 22 to 64 with disabilities do not receive public assistance,” she said. However, she said, about half the beneficiaries of such programs had a disability. In 1990, 15 percent of Alabama’s adult, non-senior population lived in poverty, compared to 29 percent of disabled non-senior adults.

Working continues to be a problem for people with disabilities, said the Center director. The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 attempted to increase the employment rate of people with disabilities by making it illegal to discriminate against individuals who happen to have a disability.

Of the civilian non-institutional population between the ages of 21 and 64 in Alabama who have a work disability or mobility limitation, 27 percent were employed in 1990, compared to a national average of 35 percent. About 4 percent of Alabama’s total work force under the age of 65 is disabled.

Only 52 percent of Alabamians between the ages of 25 and 64 with disabilities have a high school diploma, compared to 74 percent of all state residents in that age group. And only 7 percent of disabled persons are college graduates, compared to 18 percent of the population statewide.

Of disabled Alabamians between the ages of 16 and 64, some 54 percent are married, compared to 60 percent of all Alabamians in that age range. Twelve percent of disabled adults under the age of 65 live alone, compared to 8 percent of all adults.

Watters noted that most of the state data comes from the 1990 census, which relied on people answering questions honestly. “The questions are somewhat subjective, and involve self-assessment,” Watters said. Census Bureau analysts note that the federal government is still in the early stages of determining how best to monitor statistically the status of people with disabilities.

The Alabama State Data Center is part of the UA Center for Business and Economic Research. Created in 1930, CBER since that time has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its broad base of socioeconomic information, thereby enabling it to serve as Alabama’s central reservoir for business, economic and demographic data. To help track the level of economic activity in Alabama, CBER developed an econometric model of the state. Since 1980, output from that model has been published in the annual Alabama Economic Outlook series.

The UA Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1924. The College was the only business school in the state listed in the latest edition of the prestigious Princeton Review, which cited the high quality and moderate cost of the school’s flagship MBA program.

Alabama, Exports, and Prosperity

• July 29th, 2019

Alabama, Exports, and Prosperity

Of all the goods produced in Alabama, not many have been exported over the decades. Now that is about to change. Consider, for example, the “Mercedes-Effect.” Starting this spring, the Mercedes M-Class will be offered in markets other than the United States. If Mercedes-Benz achieves its goal to sell in excess of 30,000 units abroad, Alabama’s export share will jump by roughly 25 percent. As a result, Alabama will advance into the circle of the top exporting states in the Southeast.

This article illustrates the links between export numbers, Alabama’s economy, and people’s lives. Initially, we need to clarify the use of the term “export share” in this article. Here, the export share of a state is the value of exported manufactured goods as a portion of the total value of manufactured goods in a certain period. Services, such as tourism, or commodities like wheat or cotton, although a significant part of some states’ exports, are not considered in this analysis. (They either are not recorded on a state by state basis or would exceed the scope of this article.)

To understand the relationship between exports and prosperity, it is helpful to ask which industries contribute the most to exports and what percentage of each industry’s total production is exported. The paper, chemical, machinery, electronics, and vehicle industries are more export-oriented than the food, textile, apparel, and lumber industries. At the same time the high-export industries pay significantly higher wages than the less export-oriented. For example, firms in the vehicle industry pay their production people about twice as much as apparel companies.

In general, a higher export share goes along with a higher income level. It is the people employed in these industries who benefit foremost from higher exports and, consequently, higher wages. But, indirectly, shop and restaurant owners, car dealers, and insurance salesmen also benefit from increased levels of disposable personal income. In the long run, almost everybody reaps some benefits from rising exports.

Another benefit is that reasonably high export shares reduce dependency on the domestic state of the economy. To a certain extent, recessions in the United States could be buffered by sound international demand for products made in Alabama.

Finally, high export shares are a sign of progressiveness and global competitiveness. Alabama’s reputation and attractiveness certainly will not skyrocket solely because of an increasing export share, but high export visibility does no harm either.

Stephan Droxner
Graduate Research Assistant

New Census Data Tracks State Population Increase

• July 29th, 2019

New Census Data Tracks State Population Increase

The state of Alabama has seen a 6.9 percent population increase since the 1990 Census, according to statistics released this week by the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC) at The University of Alabama.

The newly available 1997 figures show that Alabama is growing, but not as fast as the nation at 7.6 percent or the south at 10.2 percent, said Center Manager Annette Watters. The ASDC is a division of UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration that works closely with the U.S. Census Bureau. Watters is also chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based national State Data Center.

Which county posts a No. 1 ranking in regard to its population? Well, said Watters, that depends on how you read the numbers.

“Jefferson is Alabama’s largest county, with 658,664 people,” Watters said. “But Shelby County added the most people – 36,083 since 1990 – and had the highest growth rate – a 36.3 percent increase in population.

“Madison County added the second largest number of people, but Baldwin County had the second highest growth rate,” she continued. “New residents are clearly heading to Shelby, Madison and Baldwin counties.

“In general, you’ll find that counties in Alabama that are part of a metro area are growing faster than are non-metropolitan counties.”

Watters said Lee County is the state’s fifth fastest growing county and one of only two in the top 10 fastest growing counties that is not part of a metropolitan statistical area, adding, “After the 2000 Census, Lee County, which is near Columbus, Ga., is likely to be designated a metro area.”

Watters noted that most of the state’s growth came from just a few counties. For example, Jefferson County is home to 15 percent of the state’s entire population, and the Birmingham metro area considered as a whole accounts for 21 percent of the state’s population.

“Put another way, more than one out of every five Alabamians live in the Birmingham metro area,” Watters said. “Only 14 of Alabama’s 67 counties account for 75 percent of all the population growth in the state over the last seven years.”

Watters explained that population gains come from people moving or being born into an area, while losses come from people moving away or dying. “Most changes in general occur because of movers, not through natural increases or decreases,” she said. “People move primarily for job or educational reasons.”

And, she added, people don’t always live in the counties where they work. Good Alabama examples are Autauga and Elmore counties, home to many Montgomery County workers and part of the Montgomery metropolitan area. Both rank in the state’s top five in percentage increases during this decade; Elmore has grown by 22.5 percent (11,062 people) and Autauga by 20.7 percent (7,084 people).

In looking at the entire state, Watters said, 57 of the 67 counties have seen some population gain since 1990. All 10 of the counties recording population losses have shown continuing downward trends for some time.

“Calhoun County, on the other hand, is showing a turnaround in its trend,” noted the Center manager. “Earlier in the decade it had substantial population loss related to announcements about closing military facilities located there. But Calhoun County’s basic economic strength has reversed that population decline and the area now shows modest growth.

“As the decade progresses, the population should continue to grow.”

The Center for Business and Economic Research is a division of research and service of UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration. The Alabama State Data Center works closely with the U.S. Census Bureau to track demographic, economic and population statistics. Periodically, CBER publishes the Economic Abstract of Alabama, which provides voluminous data on many aspects of Alabama’s economy.

The Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1924. Its Manderson Graduate School of Business has received repeated positive recognition in the 1990s from such publications as Business Week, The Princeton Review and The Gourman Report.

Alabama's Resident Population                                        Rank
                                       Rank          Rank             by
                      1990       1997   by   Number by No. Percent  Growth
                    Census             Size  Change  Incr.  Change   Rate
                 _____________________ ____ _______ _____  ______    _____
Alabama          4,040,389  4,319,154       278,765          6.9%

Autauga County      34,222     41,306    29   7,084   13    20.7%      5
Baldwin County      98,280    128,842     7  30,562    3    31.1%      2
Barbour County      25,417     26,782    40   1,365   33     5.4%     27
Bibb County         16,576     18,588    50   2,012   27    12.1%      9
Blount County       39,248     45,081    27   5,833   16    14.9%      6
Bullock County      11,042     11,270    66     228   50     2.1%     45
Butler County       21,892     21,692    46   (200)   63    -0.9%     61
Calhoun County     116,032    117,092     8   1,060   38     0.9%     52
Chambers County     36,876     36,825    32    (51)   59    -0.1%     58
Cherokee County     19,543     21,590    47   2,047   26    10.5%     14

Chilton County      32,458     36,349    34   3,891   19    12.0%     11
Choctaw County      16,018     15,894    55   (124)   61    -0.8%     60
Clarke County       27,240     28,489    39   1,249   36     4.6%     31
Clay County         13,252     13,832    60     580   45     4.4%     35
Cleburne County     12,730     14,092    58   1,362   34    10.7%     13
Coffee County       40,240     41,980    28   1,740   31     4.3%     36
Colbert County      51,666     53,047    22   1,381   32     2.7%     43
Conecuh County      14,054     14,083    59      29   56     0.2%     56
Coosa County        11,063     11,554    65     491   46     4.4%     34
Covington County    36,478     37,362    31     884   44     2.4%     44

Crenshaw County     13,635     13,645    61      10   57     0.1%     57
Cullman County      67,613     74,241    16   6,628   14     9.8%     15
Dale County         49,633     49,107    25   (526)   65    -1.1%     63
Dallas County       48,130     47,133    26   (997)   66    -2.1%     65
DeKalb County       54,651     57,752    21   3,101   22     5.7%     25
Elmore County       49,210     60,272    20  11,062    6    22.5%      3
Escambia County     35,518     36,487    33     969   41     2.7%     42
Etowah County       99,840    104,313    10   4,473   18     4.5%     33
Fayette County      17,962     18,176    51     214   53     1.2%     50
Franklin County     27,814     29,613    37   1,799   30     6.5%     20

Geneva County       23,647     24,828    41   1,181   37     5.0%     29
Greene County       10,153      9,902    67   (251)   64    -2.5%     66
Hale County         15,498     16,390    53     892   43     5.8%     23
Henry County        15,374     15,636    57     262   49     1.7%     48
Houston County      81,331     85,163    12   3,832   21     4.7%     30
Jackson County      47,796     50,751    23   2,955   24     6.2%     21
Jefferson County   651,520    658,664     1   7,144   12     1.1%     51
Lamar County        15,715     15,759    56      44   54     0.3%     54
Lauderdale County   79,661     84,241    13   4,580   17     5.7%     24
Lawrence County     31,513     33,386    35   1,873   28     5.9%     22

Lee County          87,146     98,501    11  11,355    5    13.0%      8
Limestone County    54,135     60,700    19   6,565   15    12.1%     10
Lowndes County      12,658     12,881    63     223   51     1.8%     47
Macon County        24,928     23,314    45 (1,614)   67    -6.5%     67
Madison County     238,912    272,293     3  33,381    2    14.0%      7
Marengo County      23,084     23,503    44     419   47     1.8%     46
Marion County       29,830     30,813    36     983   40     3.3%     41
Marshall County     70,832     78,893    14   8,061   11    11.4%     12
Mobile County      378,643    398,276     2  19,633    4     5.2%     28
Monroe County       23,968     24,186    42     218   52     0.9%     53

Montgomery County  209,085    217,597     4   8,512    9     4.1%     37
Morgan County      100,043    108,304     9   8,261   10     8.3%     17
Perry County        12,759     12,642    64   (117)   60    -0.9%     62
Pickens County      20,699     20,964    48     265   48     1.3%     49
Pike County         27,595     28,604    38   1,009   39     3.7%     39
Randolph County     19,881     19,923    49      42   55     0.2%     55
Russell County      46,860     50,719    24   3,859   20     8.2%     18
Shelby County       99,363    135,446     6  36,083    1    36.3%      1
St. Clair County    49,811     60,838    18  11,027    7    22.1%      4
Sumter County       16,174     15,998    54   (176)   62    -1.1%     64

Talladega County    74,109     76,846    15   2,737   25     3.7%     38
Tallapoosa County   38,826     40,148    30   1,322   35     3.4%     40
Tuscaloosa County  150,522    160,760     5  10,238    8     6.8%     19
Walker County       67,670     70,733    17   3,063   23     4.5%     32
Washington County   16,694     17,613    52     919   42     5.5%     26
Wilcox County       13,568     13,537    62    (31)   58    -0.2%     59
Winston County      22,053     23,913    43   1,860   29     8.4%     16

Women Gaining Ground in Business, Education

• July 29th, 2019

Women Gaining Ground in Business, Education

Businesses owned by women now make up 34 percent of all Alabama firms, generating more than $7.6 billion in sales and $1 billion in payroll for the state.

That’s the word this week from the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC), as Women’s History Month draws to a close. Housed in The University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, the Center works in conjunction with the U.S. Census Bureau and serves as part of Alabama’s central reservoir for economic and demographic data, the Center for Business and Economic Research.

“In addition, Alabama’s women-owned business employed 24 percent of all employees in the state, or 79,700 people, in 1992,” said Annette Watters, Center manager and chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based national State Data Center. Watters explained that the ’92 numbers are the latest available figures in these areas.

On the national front, businesses owned by women comprise 33 percent of all domestic firms and 40 percent of all retail and service firms, Watters said. These businesses generated $1.6 trillion in revenues and employed 13.2 million people in 1992.

“Working women are also commanding higher salaries,” Watters noted. “The female-to-male earnings ratio reached a new high in 1996, with a 2.4 percent increase in real median earnings to $23,710.

“That increase brings women to about 74 percent of the median for men, $32,144.”

Women are also working their way into traditionally male-dominated fields. Over a 13-year period, from 1983 to 1996, the proportion of women lawyers increased from 15 to 30 percent, female physicians from 16 to 26 percent, and female economists from 38 to 54 percent.

“Record numbers of mothers are taking to the work force,” continued the Center manager. “In 1996, 70 percent of married women with children worked, compared to only 40 percent in 1970. Of the 3.7 million women who gave birth in 1994, 55 percent were in the labor force the following year.”

On the higher education front, as of 1994 women constituted 55 percent of people awarded bachelor’s degrees, 55 percent of those receiving master’s degrees and 39 percent of doctoral graduates. That indicates an increase from comparable 1971 statistics of 43, 40 and 14 percent, respectively.

“Women pursuing higher education also outnumber men at the state level,” Watters said. “Of students enrolled in public colleges and universities in the state, women make up 55.8 percent of undergraduate students and 59.1 percent of graduate students.

“Overall, women comprise nearly 56 percent of Alabama’s college students,” she said. “And, younger women are more likely than their predecessors or their male counterparts to be educated. Of the overall population, 26 percent of men have bachelor’s degrees, compared to only 21 percent of women.

“However, among 25- to 29-year-olds, 28 percent of women hold bachelor’s degrees, compared to 26 percent of men.”

Women currently outnumber men in Alabama 2.2 million to 2.1 million; in the overall U.S. population, as of 1997 there were 137.2 million women and 131.6 million men. There margins are larger for older Americans: 20.1 million to 14.1 million at ages 65 and over; 2.8 million to 1.1 million at ages 85 and over; and 50,000 to 11,000 among centenarians.

As Alabamians age, Watters said, the margins grow larger: 337,000 women to 220,000 men at ages 65 and over; and 43,780 women to 16,500 men at ages 85 and over.

“Those margins can be accounted for by looking at life expectancy by gender,” she explained. “In 1995, life expectancy for women was 79, compared to 73 years for mean. Projections for 2010 show life expectancy will be 81 years for women and 74 years for men.”

Gone Fishing

• July 29th, 2019

Gone Fishing

Hunting and fishing are part of the culture of Alabama and they also have a sizeable impact on the economy. In 1996 hunters and fishermen in Alabama spent almost $1.45 billion on equipment and trip-related expenditures, compared to only $724 million in 1991. While the total number of persons hunting and fishing in Alabama increased from 1.27 million to 1.33 million, only 4.9 percent, their expenditures increased 91 percent. This can be partly attributed to a healthy economy in the second part of the decade, following several years that were not as robust. Trip-related hunting and fishing expenditures grew 30 percent, while equipment expenditures grew 90 percent. The largest change occurred in the purchases of special equipment such as campers and boats, which showed an increase of 215 percent between 1991 and 1996.

Fishing.  In 1996 fishermen in Alabama spent $835 million on their favorite pastime. Of this total, $363 million was for trip-related expenditures, $426 million for equipment, and $46 million for other items. This “other items” category includes magazine subscriptions, membership dues, land leasing expenses, licenses, stamps, tags, and permits.

Hunting.  In 1996 Alabama hunters spent $610 million. Of this total, trip-related expenditures accounted for $127 million. Trip-related expenditures include food, lodging, transportation, guide fees, land use fees, and equipment rental. Equipment expenditures, which include guns, telescopic sights, ammunition, binoculars, and hunting clothing, were $390 million. Expenditures for other items, such as magazines, books, membership dues, and land leasing expenses, totaled $94 million.

Out-of-state Hunters and Fishermen.  Hunting and fishing also draw a significant number of out-of-state participants. In 1996, 323,000 nonresident anglers enjoyed Alabama waters, accounting for 33 percent of all fishermen. These nonresidents spent 1.99 million days fishing in Alabama, or just over six days per angler. Of these out-of-state fishermen, 219,000 were freshwater anglers, with the remaining 104,000 being strictly saltwater, or both freshwater and saltwater. Also in 1996, 94,000 nonresident hunters spent 704,000 days hunting in Alabama, for an average of 7.5 days per hunter. Of these hunters, 80 percent were big-game hunters, in pursuit of deer or wild turkey. Twenty-eight percent hunted small game, such as squirrels, rabbits, or quail, and 24 percent hunted migratory birds, such as doves, ducks, or geese.

Resident Sportsmen.  In 1996 there were 661,000 Alabama resident anglers. They spent a total of 14.5 million days fishing, for an average of 22 days per angler. In addition, Alabamians spent only five percent of their time fishing outside the state, one of the lowest rates in the country. Alabama hunters spent 6.48 million days hunting in 1996. With 253,000 licensed resident hunters, this is an average of 25.6 days per hunter.

Wildlife Watching.  Wildlife watching is also popular in Alabama. People spent $278.9 million in Alabama in 1996 pursuing their hobby of observing, photographing, or feeding wildlife. They maintain natural areas of special plantings for wildlife and they visit public parks and woodland habitats, lakes and streamsides, brush-covered areas and open fields. Some have specially purchased clothing and equipment, such as off-road vehicles, trail bakes, tents, and backpacking equipment.

Birds attract the attention of the largest number of people. Shorebirds, waterfowl, songbirds, and birds of prey are most popular among bird watchers. Land mammals, such as deer, or other wildlife, such as butterflies, snakes, and turtles, are of interest to other wildlife-watching participants.

Twelve percent of the American adult population enjoys wildlife watching, in equal numbers of men and women. The age group with the most interest are 35-to-44-year-olds, closely followed by 45-to-54-year-olds. People of all income levels enjoy wildlife-watching hobbies, but participation rates among races vary greatly. White individuals are much more likely than African Americans to be wildlife watchers.

With people’s continuing interest in outdoor recreational activities, as well as a relatively strong economy, the high levels of expenditures in Alabama established in 1996 should continue. Alabama’s long seasons, abundant public access to hunting and fishing opportunities, and moderate weather mean that wildlife-associated recreation will continue to have a positive impact on the state’s economy.

Brett Nix
Graduate Research Assistant

Learning for Life – Learning for a Living

• July 29th, 2019

Are College Degrees in Line with Occupational Projections?

Learning for Life – Learning for a Living

Colleges provide their students many kinds of insights and knowledge. Professors emphasize that what students learn in class, they learn for life. An alma mater generously nurtures her pupils with wisdom.

But in these times, is wisdom enough? A recent report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects the demand for certain occupations for the years 1996-2006. It would be in the interest of both students and society as a whole if Alabama’s supply of college graduates matched the demands of Alabama’s labor market. This article limits the comparison of supply and demand to three fields: 1) Computer & Information Sciences, 2) Health Professionals & Related Sciences, and 3) Psychology.

The Alabama Commission on Higher Education (ACHE) reports the following numbers of students graduated from a public or private four-year college in Alabama between 1991 and 1996.

Source: Alabama Commission on Higher Education and Center for Business and Economic Research.

Extrapolating past trends into the future gives us a ballpark figure of the expected number of students who will earn undergraduate degrees from Alabama’s colleges in the respective areas of study within the next 10 years. However, a degree with a certain major does not automatically dictate a certain profession. For example, the study of psychology is useful not only for psychologists, but also for marketing, advertising, or religious vocations. Computer science professions might be filled by engineers or business students. That kind of overlap complicates the relationship between labor supply and demand, but we are still able to draw some broad conclusions.

We used new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate Alabama’s occupational demand, even though BLS provides only nationwide numbers. We assumed that the demand for nurses, psychologists and computer experts is a function of the number of people living in a specific area. Since Alabama accounts for 1.62 percent of the U.S. population, we multiplied the BLS job projections by 1.62 percent. In addition to the new jobs that are supposed to be created, the state will need replacements for people retiring or changing jobs. The following table lists the projected demand in the labor market for our three occupational areas:

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research.

Our research assumes that short-term supply and demand patterns will not change dramatically-no cataclysmic natural disasters, economic depressions, or wars. If existing trends continue: * The near future supply of employees with profound computer skills will fall seriously short of demand. * Realizing that not all health occupations require a college degree, demand and supply for health occupations are fairly in line. * Even though several professions can profitably employ psychology majors, Alabama may be heading to a serious oversupply in that field. (See Table 3 for numbers.)

Source: The University of Alabama, Center for Business and Economic Research.

A comparison for a single state, such as the overview we have done, has many shortcomings, since students do not stop at a state’s border when they are looking for jobs. Nevertheless, the differentials between supply and demand ratios for some fields of study should give pause whether Alabama students are on the right track for occupations of the future.

Stephan Droxner
Graduate Research Assistant

The Alabama Economy: A Revised 1998 Forecast

• July 29th, 2019

The Alabama Economy: A Revised 1998 Forecast

The current economic expansion that began in March of 1991 will be entering its 90th month in August, and is already the second longest peace-time expansion on record. (The longest is the December 1982 to June 1990 expansion.) The question is: How much longer can we realistically expect this expansion to continue? In 1998 Alabama’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than in the past several years.

Gross State Product Growth

Alabama’s GSP in 1998 was initially expected to increase at about 3.1 percent versus 3.2 percent for the United States. Strongest growth was expected in the construction sector and in the manufacture of both electrical and nonelectrical machinery and motor vehicles. However, the General Motors strike that has impacted the Dephi plants in the state, and the Japanese recession that has impacted the export sector have lowered expectations for manufacturing industries. Although real output of motor vehicles and related industries will rise, it will be down slightly from our initial forecast. We now expect a GSP growth rate of approximately 2.6 to 2.7 percent.

GSP Output Increases

The start of construction on a $400 million Boeing plant near Decatur, together with ongoing highway projects, should help boost output of the state’s construction sector in 1998. Output of Alabama’s wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to grow in 1998, but less than in 1997. Services sector output will be a good bit below the 1997 increase.

Alabama’s Gross State Product (GSP) grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent from 1993 through 1997. During the same period, the national average annual growth rate was 3.0 percent for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Even though Alabama’s growth exceeded the national average during the past few years, the state’s 1998 growth will not match the recent past.

Employment Growth

The Alabama economy is expected to add about 28,500 net new nonagricultural jobs in 1998, down from the annual average of 37,738 added from 1993 to 1997. As in 1997, the fastest growing sectors are services, trade, and construction. While durable goodsproducing industries should add approximately 1,700 new jobs, nondurable goods industries will lose close to 2,200 jobs, resulting in a net decline in manufacturing employment. Alabama’s services sector should add the most new jobs in 1998, primarily in business and healthcare-related services. Construction of the Boeing plant, together with other industrial and commercial construction projects in the state’s metropolitan areas, is expected to create 10 percent of total job gains. Employment in wholesale and retail trade is expected to increase in 1998, but not as much as in 1997.

A major factor today in Alabama’s economy is slow growth in the civilian labor force. From 1990 to 1997, Alabama’s population increased by 6.9 percent, low compared to Florida (13.3 percent), Georgia (15.6 percent), North Carolina (12.0 percent), South Carolina (7.9 percent), and Tennessee (10.1 percent). Because relatively fewer people have been moving into Alabama than into our neighboring states, our labor force growth has been constrained. The unemployment rate has been below 3 percent in three of the state’s major metropolitan areas.

Income Growth

While Alabama’s GSP growth and employment growth over the 1993-97 period paralleled U.S. averages, income growth has not kept pace. After recording a growth rate of about 6 percent in 1997, total personal income in Alabama will increase 5.4 percent in 1998. Taking inflation into account, the real rate of growth will be 3.3 percent. By comparison, the U.S. growth rate in personal income for 1997 was 5.8 percent and for 1998 is expected to be 5.6 percent.

Net New Nonagricultural Jobs in Alabama

A major explanation for this slower growth in personal income is rapid employment growth in services and trade sectors. Almost 82 percent of the approximately 34,560 new jobs created in the state in 1997 were in the trade and services sectors. These sectors have average wages that are below the manufacturing sector. Global competition has also added to the slower growth in personal income. There is pressure on domestic firms to control costs, including wage increases for their workers.

William D. Gunther
Ahmad Ijaz