Category: Research Library

African American-Owned Business in Alabama  Generate $1 Billion in Revenues

  • August 7th, 2019

African American-Owned Business in Alabama
Generate $1 Billion in Revenues


African American-owned businesses in Alabama generated an estimated $1 billion in revenues in 1997, according to figures released today (Thursday, March 22) by the U.S. Commerce Department’s Census Bureau.”Businesses owned by African Americans made up 6.7 percent of the 285,206 non-farm businesses in the state,” said Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama. “African American-owned businesses totaled 19,077 and employed 13,232 people. The state ranked 9th nationally in the percentage of African American-owned firms,” she said. Watters said the majority of African American-owned firms – 88 percent, or 16,811 – were firms with no paid employees, which compares to the national average of 89 percent.

Watters also said that about one percent of all employees in Alabama work for an African American-owned business. “That means there were 13,232 people employed in Alabama by black-owned firms in 1997,” she said. “The annual payroll for black-owned businesses in Alabama in 1997 was $232 million.”

Half of the state’s African American-owned firms are in the service industry and account for 46 percent of gross receipts of African American-owned businesses. Retail trade firms, on the other hand, account for 13 percent of total African American-owned Alabama firms but 16 percent of the gross receipts.

The largest number of black-owned firms – 5,045 – was in the Birmingham Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), followed by Mobile (2,770), Montgomery (2,064), Huntsville (1,709) and Tuscaloosa (882).

“Thirty-six of Alabama’s 67 counties had 100 or more black-owned firms in 1997,” Watters said. “Of Alabama’s metropolitan areas, only the Auburn-Opelika MSA had fewer than 100 black-owned firms, the smallest number for which the Department of Commerce would make separate tabulations.”

The Alabama State Data Center is part of the UA Center for Business and Economic Research, which was created in 1930 to promote economic development in the state while expanding and refining its base of socioeconomic information.

Both centers are part of The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, which was founded in 1919, and which first began offering graduate education in 1923.

Alabama’s Population at the Dawn of the 21st Century: The Product of a Century of Change

  • August 7th, 2019

Alabama’s Population at the Dawn of the 21st Century:
The Product of a Century of Change

With a population of 4,447,100 on April 1, 2000, Alabama had added 406,513 residents in the 10 years since the 1990 census.  The state’s population more than doubled during the 100 years between 1900, when 1,828,697 Alabamians were counted, and 2000.  While the most recent census ranked Alabama 23rd among the 50 states, it was the 18th most populous state 100 years ago.  At that time, Florida tallied only 528,542 residents and California counted just 1,485,053.  Alabama’s population growth was most rapid in the first half of the century, increasing 67.4 percent between 1900 and 1950, compared to 45.2 percent from 1950 to 2000.

Alabama’s transition from a predominantly rural, agrarian state in 1900 into a largely urban one, dependent on nonagricultural jobs, has defined the patterns of change seen across the 20th century.   In 1900 just 216,714 Alabamians lived in urban areas and more than seven out of eight residents were in rural settings.  Urban areas were defined in 1900 as incorporated places of 2,500 or more, plus areas classified as urban under special rules relating to population size and density.  After a slight definitional change in 1950, Alabama’s urban population reached 43.8 percent of the total.  By 1990 over 60 percent of the state’s residents lived in urban areas.  Although urban/rural numbers for 2000 have not been released, the share of Alabama’s urban population is expected to have continued to increaseVisit the table of Population of Alabama Counties, 1900-2000

The state’s urbanization has been driven by its economic transformation.  In 1910 there were 669,033 Alabamians aged 10 and over “gainfully employed” in agriculture.  Another 574 worked in forestry and fishing.  By mid-century just 248,121 of the state’s workers aged 14 and over worked in agriculture, forestry, and fishing.  By 1998 the number of workers 16 and over in agriculture, forestry, and fishing had dwindled to 64,980.  (Notice the differences in the lower limit of the workforce:  age 16 in 1998, but age 14 in 1950, and age 10 in 1910.)  At the same time, employment in manufacturing climbed from 107,854 in 1910 to 213,500 in 1950 and 384,525 in 1990, before falling to 363,392 in 2000.  Trade employment rose from 42,743 in 1910 to 118,700 in 1950 and 453,800 in 2000.  And employment in services climbed from 33,657 in 1910 (not counting 76,054 domestic and personal service workers aged 10 and over) to 52,100 in 1950 and 467,383 in 2000.  Both the economic shift to the service producing sectors and the continuing decline in certain manufacturing industries favor the state’s urban areas.  In particular, textiles and apparel jobs, which were frequently located in rural Alabama, are disappearing.

While much of the state’s land area remains rural, many rural economies have withered as people have left in search of economic opportunity.  Several of today’s urban counties, including Jefferson, Montgomery, Mobile, Madison, and Tuscaloosa, have ranked in the state’s ten most populous from 1900 through 2000.  However, two of Alabama’s ten most populous counties in 1900, Henry and Lowndes, have remained predominantly rural.  Those counties have also witnessed the exodus of over half of their residents during the century.  Other counties, all predominantly rural, that also saw their populations reduced to less than half the 1900 number by 2000 include Bullock, Greene, Perry, Sumter, and Wilcox.  Thirty of Alabama’s 67 counties more than doubled in population during the 20th century.  Only two, Covington and Marion, are not either in or adjacent to a metropolitan area county.  Just two metro area counties, Lawrence and Russell, did not double in population during the last 100 years.

Looking back across the 20th century, seven Alabama counties grew in every decade.  They were Baldwin, Madison, Marshall, Mobile, Morgan, Shelby, and Tuscaloosa.  Another nine counties missed just one decade of growth.  And no counties saw their population drop in every decade.  During the last decade, twelve counties experienced losses ranging from a 0.6 percent decline in Choctaw to 8.5 percent in Sumter.

In 2000 Alabama remains a state of few large cities and many small cities and towns.  Identifying the state’s 67 counties by the size of the largest city or town in 2000 reveals just eleven counties with cities of 25,000 or more residents.  All these counties saw overall population gains across the 20th century.  Of the 20 counties with a largest city or town with 10,000 to 25,000 people, 18 saw population increases for 1900 to 2000.  And 11 of 13 counties with the largest city housing 5,000 to 10,000 experienced population growth during the century.  The largest city or town in 23 of Alabama’s counties had fewer than 5,000 residents in 2000.  Just nine of these counties gained population across the 100 years.  However, trends may be changing as nine counties in the small city category that failed to post an overall gain between 1900 and 2000 showed a population increase during the decade of the 1990s.

The racial composition of Alabama’s population has changed throughout the 20th century.  Although population growth and change has been affected by the age structure and fertility characteristics of white, black, and other residents, interstate migration has been the major factor.  Historically, population losses due to out-migration or relatively weak net migration gains have accounted for Alabama’s below average population growth rate.  In only two of the last 10 decades have more people moved into Alabama than moved out.  From 1970 to 1980, the state added 115,014 residents due to migration (both international and from other states).  The influx during the 1970s was entirely of white residents, however, as nonwhites continued to leave the state.  Only in the decade of the 1990s did both groups show substantial increases from net migration.  Alabama gained a total of 210,267 more residents than it lost due to migration between 1990 and 2000.  This includes a gain of approximately 89,306 white residents and 120,961 nonwhite residents, assuming all Alabamians who marked more than one race on the 2000 census are included in nonwhite.

Alabama Net Migration, 1900-2000

       
Years Total White Nonwhite
       
1900-1910 -52,362 -28,275 -24,087
1910-1920 -149,272 -64,898 -84,374
1920-1930 -212,231 -113,433 -98,798
1930-1940 -184,614 -112,372 -72,242
1940-1950 -301,376 -115,348 -186,028
1950-1960 -368,151 -144,130 -224,021
1960-1970 -229,681 -2,033 -227,648
1970-1980 115,014 150,236 -35,222
1980-1990 -89,120 -17,046 -72,074
1990-2000 210,267 89,306 120,961
       
Note:  The category of nonwhite migrants for 1990-2000 includes
individuals who marked more than one race on the
Census 2000 form.
Source:  Estimates by Center for Business and Economic Research,
The University of Alabama based on census and vital
statistics data.

At the beginning of the 20th century, 54.7 percent of Alabama’s residents were white.  This share steadily increased to 73.6 percent in 1970 and peaked at 73.8 percent in 1980.  From 1990 to 2000, however, the aging of Alabama’s white population relative to its nonwhite residents, coupled with a larger net in-migration of nonwhites, resulted in much stronger growth in the nonwhite population.  In 2000 Alabama was 71.1 percent white and 26.0 percent black.  Members of other racial groups have never had substantial numbers in Alabama.  From fewer than 250 in 1900 and just over 2,500 in 1950, residents who identified themselves as neither white nor black increased to 84,183 in 2000.  This is less than two percent of the population.  Another 44,179 Alabamians selected two or more races on the 2000 census.

As Alabama begins to move through the 21st century, economic development will strongly influence the location of population growth while migration will help determine racial and ethnic trends.  Gains throughout the 1900s have been concentrated in the state’s urban and adjoining suburban counties, and in rural counties that either are becoming an extension of suburbia or have developed their own economic strengths and identities.  In Alabama, as in much of the nation, population declines in mostly rural high-minority counties reflect their economic disadvantage.  Changing the population trends of the 20th century in the 21st century will depend on improving economic opportunity and quality of life in distressed areas of the state.

Carolyn Trent

NEW CENSUS NUMBERS PAINT COMPLICATED AND CHANGING PICTURE OF STATE’S FAMILIES

  • August 7th, 2019

NEW CENSUS NUMBERS PAINT COMPLICATED AND
CHANGING PICTURE OF STATE’S FAMILIES


The latest release of data by the U.S. Census Bureau paints a complicated and changing picture of the Alabama family. For the first time, families with two parents and one or more children under 18 – usually considered the ‘traditional’ family – make up less than a quarter of all households in Alabama. This is a decline since 1990 when more than 26 percent of all Alabama households were made up of children and their married parents.

“This statistic does not mean that Alabamians have renounced marriage and family, ” said Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research. “Many married couples in Alabama are families that no longer have children living at home. Other families in the state are made up of single parents raising children alone,” Ms. Watters said. She pointed out that 22.5 percent of households are married couples with children, another 8.1 percent are single mothers raising their children alone, and 1.7 percent of households are headed by fathers raising children alone. Altogether, nearly one-third of Alabama households have children living in them.

Ms. Watters said the proportion of family households in Alabama has decreased over the last decade and the proportion of nonfamily households has increased.

“Nonfamily households are made up of people living by themselves or people living with someone to whom they are not related,” she said. “People living together in nonfamilies could be roommates or unmarried partners.” The number of unmarried couples in Alabama has more than doubled since 1990 to 58,537 in 2000, according to the Census 2000.

Ms. Watters said the new numbers related to the complicated make up of Alabama families and other living arrangements have important implications for policy makers. “If about two-thirds of all households in Alabama do not contain children, it can be harder to generate support for public education and other child-centered issues,” she said.

The data also shows the percentage of one-person households rose significantly during the 1990s—from just less than 24 percent of all households in Alabama to just over 26 percent. Although the number of senior citizens is increasing, it is not the older people who are swelling the ranks of single-person households. In fact, the percentage of one-person households headed by a person over 65 dropped slightly between 1990 and 2000.

“The image of ever-increasing numbers of elderly people living alone is not entirely accurate,” Ms. Watters said. “Most singles living by themselves are younger.

People are marrying later. A vibrant economy has allowed young people to leave their parents’ houses and live on their own. And high divorce rates leave some people living alone, at least for a time.” She said the trend toward smaller households began at least two decades ago and continues. In 1990 the average number of persons per household in Alabama was 2.62. In 2000 it was 2.49.

But, Ms. Watters said, “percentages don’t tell the whole story. The percentage of households headed by women went down, as did the percentage of households with children under the age of 18 headed by women. But because the total population grew, the number of female-headed households with children actually increased during the 1990s, from 132,896 single-mom families in 1990 to 141,057 in 2000.”

Frequently a two-parent family has two sources of income, according to Ms. Watters. “Sometimes single mothers encounter conflicts in providing both a steady income and high-quality child care,” she said. “In fact, unmarried motherhood is one of the strongest predictors of poverty. While it is gratifying to see the percentage of single-mother families declining in the state, it is also important for the state’s economy, as well as for the families, for the absolute numbers to decline as well.”

Following national trends, the aging of the baby boom generation helped push Alabama’s median age up from 33.0 in 1990 to 35.8 in 2000. Population in the 45 to 54 year old group jumped over 43 percent as the oldest baby boomers approached 55 in 2000. This changing age structure strongly influences the composition of Alabama’s households and families, Ms. Watters said.

 

 

HAS THE SLUGGISH ECONOMY REACHED THE HOUSING MARKET?

  • August 7th, 2019
HAS THE SLUGGISH ECONOMY REACHED THE HOUSING MARKET?

The Alabama housing market took a hit in April, according to statistics released by the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center at The University of Alabama.

Total homes sold declined 6.76 percent from March’s 3,202 to 2,987. Montgomery had the biggest decline in number of homes sold with a loss of 40 sales (304 homes sold in April from 344 in March), while Phenix City saw the largest percentage decline with a 40.8 percent loss (42 homes sold in April from 71 in March).

Average selling price slipped 8.17 percent to $107,797 from $117,383. Total homes listed inched up 2.5 percent to 27,005 from 26,334. For all intents and purposes, average days on market held steady with a loss of only one day to 154 from 155.

“April’s decline was expected,” said Dr. Leonard Zumpano, director of the Center. “Eroding employment figures and consumer confidence together with rising mortgage rates were expected to ripple through the housing sector and will probably continue to do so in the short term.

“It is important to keep in mind, however, that when compared to April 2000, April 2001’s housing numbers are notably resilient. Total homes sold are actually up 6.79 percent from 2,797, while average selling price is down 6.84 percent from $115,707. Year to date, 2001 total homes sold is up 3.37 percent to 10,635 from 10,288 in 2000, while average selling price is up 2.72 percent to $115,789 from $112,722.”

The national housing market slowed as well. According to the National Association of Realtors®, April sales of existing single-family homes slipped 4.2 percent to 5.2 million from 5.43 million. Average selling price was up only 1 percent to $181,300 from $179,500.

April’s sales activity was still 4.4 percent above last year’s pace of 4.98 million, while average selling price is up 4.6 percent from $173,300 in April last year.

Zumpano noted the Commerce Department in April changed the method it uses to calculate new home sales.

“The new system no longer takes into account new homes under construction before permits were issued. This method caused a larger than normal discrepancy between National Association of Realtors’® numbers and the Commerce Department’s. For consistency, The Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center has used NAR’s housing numbers for comparison and analysis of the Alabama housing market with the national housing market.

“While the numbers do point to a slowing housing market, the state and national figures still look healthy when compared to last year,” Zumpano said. “It is also important to keep in mind that March set the second-highest home sales pace on record, so a decline from March could be expected in nearly any market conditions, especially with rising unemployment and eroding consumer confidence.

“Total non-farm employment shed 223,000 jobs in April, while the consumer confidence index dropped to 109.2 from 116.9. On a good note, the Consumer Conference Board reported on May 29 that the Consumer Confidence Index snapped back to 115.5 in May, which could signal that consumers are not ready to reign in their spending just yet. There is still a significant amount of strength remaining in the market, but if unemployment continues to rise, consumer confidence could falter, and further declines could be seen.”

The University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, is home to the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center. The Center works with the Alabama Association of REALTORS, the Alabama Real Estate Commission and the research division of the National Association of REALTORS to compile a state housing affordability index each quarter.

  • August 7th, 2019

State’s Hispanics Probably Undercounted in Census


The recently released 2000 Census figures showed that 75,830 people in Alabama marked on their census forms that they are Hispanic. But that number is widely regarded as being too low, according to Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama.Watters said there could be several reasons for the low figure. “Some Hispanics may have neither filled out a census form nor have been located by census enumerators who attempted to follow up uncounted people,” she said. “Another reason for the low count might be confusion about terminology.”

According to Watters, the Office of Management and Budget directed the Census Bureau to list Hispanic as an ethnic group, not a race, reasoning that Hispanics may be of any race. “Despite the federal government’s official position, many Hispanics think of themselves as Hispanic by race,” Watters said, pointing out that recent data released for Alabama tends to confirm that people might have had trouble with that question on the census form.

For example, Watters said, nearly 49 percent of Alabama Hispanics listed their race as white. About 8 percent thought of themselves as Black or African American Hispanics. A few hundred listed themselves as American Indian, Asian, or Pacific Islander Hispanics. But a large number, 35 percent, chose “None of the Above.”

“They were sure they are Hispanic, but they didn’t identify with any of the race choices, perhaps because they think Hispanic is their race,” Watters said.

An additional 5,000 of Alabama’s Hispanic population, or about 7 percent, marked that they are two or more races. Overall in Alabama, less than 1 percent of the population marked two or more races.

“The suspicion is that the Hispanics who marked two or more races were considering Hispanic to be one of the two (or more) racial groups to which they belong,” Watters said. “Even though the federal government doesn’t recognize Hispanic as a race, that doesn’t change people’s perceptions of themselves. And the data we get from the census come from the way people marked their forms.”

Census information about any county in Alabama can be obtained at http://cber.cba.ua.edu.

The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1923. Its Center for Business and Economic Research was created in 1930, and since that time has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its base of socioeconomic information.

State Shows Increase in Overall Housing Units, Second Homes, and Black Homeowners

  • August 7th, 2019

State Shows Increase in Overall Housing Units, Second Homes,
and Black Homeowners


During the last decade, Alabama’s population increased 10.1 percent, but the number of housing units in the state increased 17.1 percent, according to numbers recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau.And according to Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center housed at The University of Alabama, a state economy that was stronger in the 1990s than it was in the 1980s might be the root cause why the growth in housing outstripped the growth in population.

According to Watters, the number of houses held for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use increased 32 percent during the 1990s, or 11,457 more housing units of that category in 2000 than in 1990.

“In fact, 2.4 percent of all the housing units in Alabama are second homes of some kind,” Watters said. “These seasonal or recreational housing units could be a condo at the beach, a cabin on the lake, a mobile home in the country as a hunting or fishing retreat, or any other variety of permanent housing a person or family might use occasionally during the year.”

Areas of Alabama with a tourism industry show a bigger percent of this category of housing than other areas of the state, Watters said. “For example, 16 percent of all the housing units in Baldwin County are for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use rather than for permanent, fulltime residents.”

“Baldwin County is a fast-growing part of the state, but not all its growth is tourism related. Most of the housing growth there during the last decade was in owner-occupied homes. Baldwin County’s growth can be attributed to more than one reason. An apt analogy for Baldwin County is that a rising tide floats many boats,” she said.

An improving economy also made a difference in the mix of homeowners versus renters in Alabama over the last decade, Watters said. “Owner-occupied housing increased by 18.5 percent, versus a 7.6 percent increase in renter-occupied housing. There were 293,332 more owner-occupied houses in Alabama in 2000 than in 1990,” she said.

According to Watters, African-American home ownership increased at a faster rate than white home ownership. “Blacks in the state had some catching up to do because home ownership has never been as prevalent among African-Americans as among whites. Home ownership by blacks increased much faster than for Alabama’s white population.”

“Even though Alabama’s black households were increasingly likely to be owners rather than renters, in 2000 there was still a large percentage of the black population who were renters. Forty-three percent of the state’s black households were renting and 57 percent were buying their homes. By contrast, 22 percent of white households were renting and 78 percent were homeowners.”

The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1923. Its Center for Business and Economic Research was created in 1930, and since that time has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its base of socioeconomic information.

Alabama’s Income: Past and Present

  • August 7th, 2019

Alabama’s Income: Past and Present


Total Personal Growth Slow in 2000Alabama’s total personal income grew just 4.0 percent between 1999 and 2000, the weakest gain of all 50 states. While this outpaced the year’s 2.4 percent rise in consumer prices, it fell far below the U.S. increase of 7.3 percent. Only seven states had income gains of less than 5 percent from 1999 to 2000. Fast-growing states, like Colorado and California, saw strong increases in net earnings, particularly from manufacturing and services. By contrast, Alabama’s earnings growth was weak in all major industries during 2000. Farm and mining earnings declined, while earnings in manufacturing rose just 1.1 percent. Service-producing industries fared better, although overall sector earnings gains of 5.4 percent were well below the U.S. average of 8.9 percent. Alabama’s income growth improved in the fourth quarter of 2000, when acceleration in personal income growth ranked among the top six states.

Per Capita Income Loses Ground

Per capita personal income (PCPI) reached $23,471 in Alabama for 2000, 79.1 percent of the U.S. average of $29,676. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates this widely used measure of economic well-being as earnings; dividends, interest, and rent; and transfer payments per resident. During the 1990s, Alabama per capita income rose 48.2 percent, while U.S. per capita income increased 51.5 percent. Below average gains dropped Alabama’s per capita income ranking from 42nd in 1990 to 44th in 2000. Yet Alabama has come a long way in the 50 years since 1950 when per capita income of $909 was 60.2 percent of the U.S. average and ranked 48th. Still there is cause for concern that after steadily closing the gap in the decades of the 1950s through the 1980s, Alabama has fallen behind in the 1990s.

 

Wide Disparities Remain Among Counties

In 1999, the latest year for which county per capita income is available, Alabama’s estimated per capita income of $22,972 amounted to 80.5 percent of the U.S. average. Per capita income in Alabama’s 67 counties varied widely, however, as seen in Figure 1. Residents of only two counties, Jefferson and Shelby, had incomes exceeding the U.S. average of $28,546. Another seven counties—Baldwin, Coffee, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Morgan, and Tuscaloosa—fell below the national but above the state average. In 41 counties, per capita income was below the state but above 65 percent of the U.S. average. Income in Alabama’s 17 poorest counties fell below 65 percent of U.S. per capita income in 1999.

There is a wide disparity among Alabama’s richest and poorest counties. Per capita income averaged $15,420 in Alabama’s six poorest counties in 1999, just 57.1 percent of the $27,002 average for the six wealthiest. The gap between the bottom six and the top six narrowed considerably in the ten years from 1969 to 1979, with the ratio rising from 46.3 percent to 60.1 percent. However, a sizeable difference between rich and poor remains and has widened since 1979, with the 1999 ratio at 57.1 percent.

Over the last 31 years, Alabama’s poor counties have generally stayed poor and the rich have stayed rich. Only 11 of the state’s 67 counties have cracked the top six in per capita income during this time, as shown in Table 1. Four counties—Jefferson, Madison, Montgomery, and Morgan—have been there every year; Shelby joined in 1971. Baldwin, which was in the group for a few years in the late 1970s, displaced Houston in the top six in 1996. Many of Alabama’s poorest counties have also been in the cellar for most of the last 31 years. Greene and Perry have always been there; Lowndes, Sumter, and Wilcox have been there well over 20 years, including 1999; and Hale, which spent 27 years in the bottom six, now ranks seventh from the bottom. Macon, also in the bottom six in 1999, has been in the group for about half of the last 31 years, as has Bullock, which was just above, at 60th, in 1999.

Long-term Income Growth Varies

Some Alabama counties have been much more successful than others in fostering and attracting well-paying jobs that can improve the economic status of their residents. Most Alabama counties saw their per capita income rankings change between 1969 and 1999, with about half going up and half down (see Table 2). Several counties, including Calhoun and Dale, saw income rankings decline as a result of outside factors—in these cases, a reduced military presence. Others lacked the resources to compete as economies evolved in the wake of burgeoning technology.

In general, counties in metropolitan areas fared better than their nonmetro counterparts. Alabama’s 22 MSA counties averaged per capita incomes of $24,482 in 1999, or 106.6 percent of the Alabama average of $22,972. Residents of the state’s 45 nonmetro counties had, on average, just 79.3 percent of the income of metro area residents. This gap has narrowed slightly since 1969 when nonmetro income was 74.0 percent of the metro average.

Income Inequality Increasing

Income inequality among Alabama’s families grew over the last two decades. Using data from the Census Bureau’s March Current Population Surveys, the Public Policy Institute studied income changes for population quintiles in each state during the late 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. In 46 states, including Alabama, the income gap between the richest and poorest 20 percent of families widened. From the late 1970s to the late 1990s, Alabama’s wealthiest families saw the largest increases in real income (38 percent, or $33,000), while Alabama’s poorest families experienced the smallest gains (17 percent, or $1,610). (See Figure 2.) In contrast, however, the poorest fifth of families in 18 states faced real income declines. The income gap between Alabama’s richest and poorest ranked 11th worst among the 50 states, while the discrepancy between the richest and middle fifths ranked 24th. In the late 1990s, Alabama’s poorest families held 5 percent of the state’s income (Figure 3), while the wealthiest families held 45 percent.

Economic Prosperity Not Equally Shared

Across Alabama, economic prosperity has not been shared equally between Alabama counties and among residents of each county. Interrelated factors, including long-standing poverty, low education levels, and lack of economic opportunity, are depressing income growth in Alabama. Wage inequality among the highest paid and middle- to low-wage workers has increased. Globalization, declining manufacturing jobs, expanding low-wage service and trade jobs, and weakening of labor market institutions have contributed to the erosion of wages for workers without technical or college training.

Only by helping her poorest citizens become educated, productive participants in the state’s economy, by developing tax policies that help mitigate the effects of increased income inequality, and by attracting and nurturing higher wage jobs can Alabama pull itself out of the income cellar.

Carolyn Trent
(with assistance from
Randall Minor)

 

Diversity in Alabama

  • August 7th, 2019

Diversity in Alabama


Since we began getting results of Census 2000, newspapers and television have been telling us about the growing racial diversity in Alabama. Alabama’s black population is growing faster than the white population; the Hispanic population is the fastest growing ethnic group in the state. A careful examination of the flood of Census information tells us a more detailed story about how our state is changing.African American. Alabama’s racial patterns have distinctly regional dimensions. African Americans make up 26 percent of the total population, but the state’s black population is distributed very unevenly. A broad swath of the northern portion of Alabama is heavily white, as it has been since the founding of the state. This is an area where much of the terrain never lent itself to large numbers of big plantations in the agricultural economy of the early 1800s. Slavery was not as pervasive in that part of the state, and into the 21st century the concentration of African Americans is not as heavy in the north as in the south where the plantation experience was more common.

Of the 67 counties in Alabama, there are 10, all in the Black Belt region, having a black majority. Conversely, there are 13 counties, all in the northern half of the state, where less than 10 percent of the population is African American.

Asian. Nationally, 0.9 percent of the American population is Asian. In Alabama 0.7 percent is Asian, accounting for 31,346 people. The Asian presence is small and highly concentrated in a few counties, largely in the metro areas. Jefferson, Madison, and Mobile Counties each have more than 5,000 Asians. Montgomery, Lee, Tuscaloosa, and Shelby have 2,200 or fewer each, and other counties’ numbers drop off sharply from there. Several counties have fewer than 10 Asian persons living there.

Hispanic. No county in Alabama comes close to approximating the U.S. Hispanic population share. Nationally, 12.5 percent of the American population is Hispanic. Counties in Alabama that have seen an influx of Hispanics in the last decade now have 5 to 7 percent Hispanic population. Some counties have experienced very little Hispanic immigration at all. Just 28 Alabama counties account for 81 percent of the state’s Hispanic population. Several counties have fewer than 100 Hispanic people. The largest concentration of Hispanics, 10,284, is in Jefferson County, accounting for 1.6 percent of Jefferson County’s total. Other Deep South metro areas—Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point, Atlanta— experienced 300 to 600 percent increases in Hispanic population during the 1990s and have Hispanic populations tens of thousands greater than Birmingham’s.

The diffusion of minorities across Alabama is less rapid and far less pervasive than recent press accounts imply. While residents in Alabama counties with no Hispanic presence a decade ago have been talking about the recent difference, broadly speaking, Alabama is still an ethnic frontier for immigrant minorities. We can expect ethnic pioneers to continue trekking into Alabama during the current decade; Census 2010 should have a new and different story to tell.

Annette Jones Watters

 

Education, Job Training Remedies for State’s High Child Poverty Ranking

  • August 7th, 2019

Education, Job Training Remedies for State’s High Child Poverty Ranking


Revised estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau rank Alabama 7th in the nation for the number of children living in poverty.

The figures were released today (August 31, 2001) by the U.S. Census Bureau and analyzed by The University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research’s Alabama State Data Center.

An estimated 15.7 percent of the state lived in poverty in 1998, the year for which figures were most recently released. That amounts to 681,788 people. The national poverty rate is 12.7 percent of the population.

Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center, which is housed at UA, said the poverty situation was grimmer for the state’s youngest citizens. Twenty-three percent, or more than one out of every five children in the state, are living below the poverty line.

“The statistics for babies and small children is the worst news of all,” Watters said. “There are more than a quarter of a million children under 18 living in poverty in this state. Of those, 81,804 are babies and pre-schoolers below the age of five. More than a quarter of all the children under the age of five in this state live in poverty.”

Watters said the high number of children in poverty has great social and financial implications for the state. She cites greater health care costs and higher mortality rates among poor families as examples.

“Poverty among children is an obstacle to the economic development of a state,” Watters explained. “The economic development of an area is retarded when a lot of the local resources are used to take care of high numbers of people living in poverty.”

She said education and job training are the remedies to the state’s poverty problem. “Poverty is closely related to low educational attainment,” she explained. “Good jobs go to people with skills, and poorly educated people don’t qualify for those good jobs. Low-skill people don’t have the ability to pull themselves out of poverty.”

The bit of good news from the recent report is that Alabama’s poverty rate has been decreasing. In 1996, 17.1 percent of Alabamians lived in poverty. By 1998, that rate had decreased to 15.7 percent. The bad news is that most states’ poverty rate was decreasing faster than Alabama’s. Where the state ranked number 10 in poverty status in 1996, it ranked number 8 in 1998 for poverty among people of all ages and number 7 for poverty among children.

States ahead of Alabama with the highest child poverty include Washington, D.C., ranked number one, followed by New Mexico, Louisiana, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas.

Chart accompanied.

Housing Markets Continue to Confound

  • August 7th, 2019


Housing Markets Continue to Confound


The housing markets in both Alabama and the U.S. continue to confound analysts, offering mixed signals as far as the future course of the economy is concerned, according to Dr. Leonard Zumpano, director of the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center at The University of Alabama.

“This is certainly true at the state level,” Zumpano said. “Total existing homes sold in August stepped up 3.3 percent to 3,523 units from 3,408 sold in July. On the other hand, average selling price declined 3.8 percent to $115,473 from $119,864, while average days on the market lengthened slightly from 138 days in July to 144 days in August.”

Zumpano said the number of existing homes sold increased in 11 of the 20 reporting areas and declined in eight. The increase in the number of homes sold coupled with a decline in number of homes listed for sale caused supply to fall to 7.9 months from 8.2 months in July, Zumpano said. All of the year-to-date numbers for 2001, except average selling price are behind last year’s pace, he added.

“Gadsden set a couple of records in August with an all-time high 73 homes sold and an all-time high average selling price of $114,194,” Zumpano said. “Gadsden also saw the second largest percentage increase in number of homes sold with a jump of 30 percent, right behind Morgan County’s 36 percent increase to 145 units from 107. There were a couple of significant jumps in average selling price as well. Gadsden reported a 20 percent increase to $114,194 from $95,563 and Lake Martin saw a 17 percent jump to $209,618.”

Zumpano said Mobile saw the highest number of homes on the market since the Center began recording the statistic in May of 2000. “This may be coincidental, but it corresponds with the passage of a tax law requiring homeowners to live in their homes 128 days instead of the previous 30 days to qualify for a tax break from the county,” Zumpano said.

According to Zumpano, the mixed numbers suggest a market in search of direction. “The fear is that this direction may be down in the coming months,” he said. He noted that according to the Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, unemployment crept up 0.1 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted 4.7 percent.

While still below the national average of 4.9 percent, the rate is rising. Most of the jobs lost were in residential construction. However, employment problems are still largely confined to the more rural locations, as unemployment rates still remain low in most of the state’s metro areas.

As far as the new home market in Alabama is concerned, according to Zumpano, F.W. Dodge reports that contracts for future residential construction fell 6 percent statewide in August 2001 compared to the same time last year.

“Within Alabama, however, there was a great deal more variation in residential construction contracts than the statewide numbers suggest,” Zumpano said. According to figures released by the Center, contracts for future construction rose by 35 percent in the Tuscaloosa metro area and by 22 percent in Huntsville.

The value of future construction contracts also increased in the Decatur, Dothan, Florence, and the Gadsden metro areas, although the increase was limited to single digits in these locations. The value of future construction contracts fell by 34 percent in the Mobile metro area, which is made up of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Sizeable declines in future residential construction were also reported for the Montgomery and Birmingham metro areas, with both locations down 14 percent from the same time last year.

At the national level, the National Association of REALTORS® reports that sales of existing single-family homes set a record in August with a 5.8 percent increase over the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.5 million units. Median sales price jumped 8 percent to $154,700.

New homes sales for the U.S. also increased in August, but the increase was modest at 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 898,000. “Consumers are taking advantage of very attractive interest rates and are continuing to buy homes, but at a slower rate than last year,” Zumpano said. The July sales numbers released by the U.S. Census were revised down from 950,000 to 893,000 units.

Zumpano said the bad news comes from housing starts and construction permits, both indicators of future housing activity. “The Commerce Department reported that housing starts in the U.S. sank 6.9 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million units from 1.64 million. This represents the largest drop since March of 2000 and left housing starts at their lowest levels in ten months,” he said.

Construction spending fell 0.1 percent in July after holding steady for six months. Zumpano said construction spending is a leading economic indicator, meaning that changes in construction spending will often precede similar changes in the overall economy. On the bright side, he noted the decline in construction spending was entirely in remodeling and other small categories with new, residential construction actually increasing around 0.5 percent.

The U.S. employment situation eroded again in August with an overall loss of 113,000 non-farm payroll jobs, Zumpano pointed out.

Manufacturing continues to be the hardest hit with the loss of 141,000 jobs in August. Consumer confidence, the only data included in this report that was collected after the September 11 attack, plunged 14.4 percent to 97.6, almost exactly the same decline experienced at the beginning of Desert Storm, according to Zumpano.

On a somewhat more positive note, he said second quarter GDP numbers came in higher than most economists expected, indicating that, at least through the second quarter, the economy had not slipped into recession.

Most of this data was collected before the events of September 11, Zumpano said, adding, “It is a little more difficult to say what will happen now or in the near term. Given the decline in housing starts, the continuing erosion of employment in the manufacturing sector, falling consumer confidence, and the uncertainty in the marketplace; the economy will continue to slow and maybe even post negative growth for the remainder of the year.

“We remain optimistic for the longer-term housing picture, however, and believe that after some short-term market dislocations, the economy will rebound next year. Both the Federal Reserve Board and the federal government are pursuing highly stimulating policies that may spark yet another refinancing boom as well as help bolster lagging consumer spending and the economy as we approach year-end.

EDITORS NOTE: The in-state housing statistics reported here refer only to existing home sales and are obtained from data provided by local area associations of REALTORS®. Consequently, these numbers do not include new home sales, or for-sale-by-owner transactions, and hence, are reflective of basic housing market trends and not indicative of all the monthly housing market transactions that take place within the state.