Free Fall 2021 Data Conference

• August 31st, 2021

The Alabama State Data Center (ASDC), housed in the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) hosted a second Census data conference this fall on Thursday, October 7 from noon to 4:00 p.m. The virtual conference included presentations on how to access the latest 2020 decennial Census results from Data.Census.gov, the innovative Census Pulse Survey, the Count Question Resolution (CQR) program, and the economic products available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Click on the red titles below to view the slide deck from each presentation.

Alabama State Data Center Fall 2021 Conference
Thursday, October 7, 2021: 12:00 – 4:00 p.m.

Welcome and Introductions | Susannah Robichaux, ASDC Lead / Socioeconomic Analyst, The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research; and Barb Lafleur, Acting Assistant Branch Chief and State Data Center Liaison, Data Users Branch, U.S. Census Bureau.

Data.Census.Gov | KaNin Reese, Partnership Specialist, Branch Chief, Dissemination Outreach Branch, Center for Enterprise Dissemination, U.S. Census Bureau. This presentation includes step-by-step demos for data.census.gov including topics like getting started using the single search bar or advanced search, comparing data across time and geographies, finding business data (searching by industry), and microdata access (MDAT).

Pulse Survey | Kathryn Bonney, Economic Management Division; Colin Shevlin, Economic Indicators Division; and Jason Fields, Social Economic & Housing Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau. An overview of the two Pulse surveys: the Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS), which measures the effect of changing business conditions during the Coronavirus pandemic on U.S. small businesses, and the Household Pulse Survey (HPS), which was designed to understand the impact of COVID-19 on American families relating to employment, food security, housing, health, and educational disruption.

Count Question Resolution | Matthew Frates, Chief of the Count Question Resolution Branch, Decennial Census Management Division, U.S. Census Bureau. The 2020 Census Count Question Resolution (CQR) program provides a mechanism for governmental units to request a review of their official 2020 Census results and to help ensure that housing and population counts are correctly allocated to 2020 census tabulation blocks. This presentation is not yet available, so the link leads to the official Census CQR page.

An Overview of Key Economic Data for Alabama (including COVID data)| Andrew W. Hait, Economist, International Trade Management Division, U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census Bureau is the federal government’s largest statistical agency and conducts more than 130 censuses and surveys each year. This presentation covers some of the types of data available from the economic surveys, how to access them, and some pre-made searches to help you find Alabama statistics.

Top Issue Facing Alabama: Education and Workforce Training

• August 31st, 2021

Education and workforce training is the top issue facing Alabama’s economy, according to business leaders who participated in the 2020 Alabama Business Confidence Index (ABCI) Panelist Poll.

Alabama business leaders have voted education and workforce training as the state’s primary issues for the last five years. In the 2020 survey, 74.5 percent of panelists reported concerns about the state of the education and workforce training system, and 18 percent of those panelists provided specific comments, which included concerns about the lack of funding for education, the shortage of qualified workers, and a desire for more short-term training opportunities for all fields. Panelists ranked economic and business development as a close second at 70.4 percent, and 20.0 percent shared worries about the uncertainty related to COVID-19 and the importance of diversifying the state economy.

Panelists were also able to select the top issues facing their own companies. Though almost half of the business leaders were concerned about workforce issues, 63.9 percent selected the “economy in general” as their number one concern. Among those who selected the economy as one of their top concern, 14.5 percent shared more details about their selection, with many naming the uncertainty due to COVID-19 and 2020 election as their main concerns.

Each quarter, business leaders respond to the ABCI survey and receive reports that summarize the business sentiment for the state and its five largest metro areas. Business leaders use these quarterly reports as a general indicator of local and regional economic outlook (80.6 percent), as background information for their own forecasts (43.9 percent), and to compare their personal projections to their fellow peers in business (35.7 percent). In addition, 28.6 percent of business leaders who responded to the poll use ABCI reports for economic development, decision-making, or short-term planning, and 24.5 percent share the results from ABCI with others.

About the ABCI Panelist Poll
The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) in The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business conducts an annual survey of Alabama business leaders to determine the top issues facing the state and their respective companies. The ABCI panel is open to business executives across the state, and was conducted throughout November 2020.

Registration and current and historical results are available on the ABCI page of CBER’s website. Newsletters with results are provided for Alabama and for the Birmingham-Hoover, Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, and Tuscaloosa metro areas. Panelists can take the Q4 2021 survey from September 1-15, 2021. For questions, please contact socioeconomic analyst, Susannah Robichaux at scrobichaux@cba.ua.edu.

State’s Economic Recovery Booming Just Before COVID-19 Resurgence

• August 10th, 2021

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – Two snapshots of the state’s economy earlier this summer show recovery from the pandemic recession of 2020 exceeding expectations, with business leaders confident things were getting even better, according to research from The University of Alabama.

It’s unknown whether the rise of the Delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 will dampen the economy, but, if it does, nothing short of another lockdown could stunt the recovery, said Ahmad Ijaz, executive director of the UA Center for Business and Economic Research.

“We will most likely see 5.0 to 5.5 percent growth for this year, and perhaps next year too, on the condition that we don’t shut down the economy again,” Ijaz said. “Another shut down will most likely have a much more devastating impact on the economy.”

CBER released its quarterly economic forecast, Alabama Business, today which showed the state’s economy grew 6.8% in the first quarter of 2021, which followed a strong half of 2020 after plummeting economic activity the first half of last year.

The forecasted 5.5% economic growth for 2021 will make up the 2.7% drop in economic activity in 2020.

The state’s economy has continued to beat growth forecasts as business sectors come back at different speeds because of supply constraints and loose monetary policy fueled business and consumer spending, Ijaz said.

“At the start of the year, everybody was predicting that the economy would get back to its normal course after a huge jump in growth in third and fourth quarters of 2020, but as the year went along the economic growth just kept on accelerating,” he said.

The state gained 13,200 jobs in June over the previous three months. From June 2020 to June 2021, the state gained 89,200 jobs with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate this June of 3.3 percent, down from the 7.7 percent unemployment rate in June 2020, according to the study.

Also, CBER released its latest quarterly survey of local business leaders. Taken in the first half of June, it showed historical confidence about the direction of Alabama’s economy. The Alabama Business Confidence Index was 67, up nearly three points from the spring survey.

It’s the most confidence business leaders have had in forecasting economic growth since the third quarter of 2004, according to CBER data. Plus, this is the third consecutive quarter all the industry-level ABCIs have been positive, indicating sustained expectations for economic expansion across all industries in Alabama.

An index over 50 indicates a positive forecast compared to the previous quarter, and the higher the number, the more confident the forecast. The statewide and national forecasts, along with industry-specific components like sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures comprise the six indexes that combine to make the ABCI total.

For those participating in the survey, more than three-fourths forecasted a better economic outlook for Alabama in the third quarter of the year, and 70 percent expected sales to increase compared to the second quarter of 2021.

“Alabama business leaders were feeling really good in June,” said Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER. “Many businesses throughout the state experienced some contraction and uncertainty due to COVID, and these latest ABCI results tell us that folks were really anticipating a recovery and feeling confident in their forecasts for growth. Now, some of that is up in the air due to the Delta variant making such a strong showing.”

The breakdown of all the industry forecasts by sector can be seen in the statewide ABCI report on CBER’s website.

In addition to the statewide ABCI report, CBER also collects ABCI data to write individual reports for Alabama’s five major metro areas. These metro reports offer insight into the forecasts for each specific region.

Original Source: https://news.ua.edu/2021/08/states-economic-recovery-booming-just-before-covid-19-resurgence/

The University of Alabama, part of The University of Alabama System, is the state’s flagship university. UA shapes a better world through its teaching, research and service. With a global reputation for excellence, UA provides an inclusive, forward-thinking environment and nearly 200 degree programs on a beautiful, student-centered campus. A leader in cutting-edge research, UA advances discovery, creative inquiry and knowledge through more than 30 research centers. As the state’s largest higher education institution, UA drives economic growth in Alabama and beyond.

CBER Hosts Annual Census Data Conference

• May 17th, 2021

The Alabama State Data Center (ASDC), housed in the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) hosted it’s annual Census Data Conference on Thursday, May 20, 2021 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. The virtual conference featured speakers from the U.S. Census Bureau who present on a variety of topics including a review of the 2020 census and data release dates, how to access data using data.census.gov, upcoming geography surveys, and making the most of the Census Bureau’s economy and business data. Click on the red titles below to view the slide deck from each presentation.

Alabama State Data Center 2021 Data Conference
Thursday, May 20, 2021: 9:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.

Welcome and Introductions | Susannah Robichaux, ASDC Lead / Socioeconomic Analyst, The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research

Introduction of Speakers and Overview Interactive Chat Q/A Discussion | Carletta Singleton, Partnership Specialist, Atlanta Regional Census Center, U.S. Census Bureau. Review topics, speakers, and instructions for virtual chat question/answer (Q/A) discussion.

2020 Census Recap & U. S. Census Thank You Campaign | Marilyn Stephens, Partnership Coordinator, Atlanta Regional Census Center, U.S. Census Bureau. This presentation gave a brief overview of the 2020 Census field operations, the Thank You Campaign, and a highlighted timeline for data release.

Overview of New Changes to Census Data Website | KaNin Reese, Chief of the Dissemination Outreach Branch, U.S. Census Bureau Headquarters. This presentation focused on innovative changes to the data.census.gov website, data tools, and content making data easy to discover, access, and analyze. Learn about the changes to the census data site to navigate and maximize your use of Census Data!

2020 Census Geography Updates for Alabama | William Curry, Geographer, U.S. Census Bureau, Atlanta Regional Office. This presentation on 2020 Census Geography highlighted LUCA, BAS and provided data users updates on changes in census geography in Alabama for census tracts, census blocks, census designated places federal and state tribal areas.

Economic and Business Surveys, Economy Census Data Profile | Andrew W. Hait, Survey Statistician / Economist, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D C.: This session provided a brief overview of data for Alabama from key Census business programs, including the Economic Census, County Business Patterns, and the Annual Business Survey. The presentation gave tips to data users for incorporating these data with the American Community Survey (ACS) data to better understand the Alabama economy, and how to use key tools such as Census Business Builder and demonstration on the COVID-19 Hub.

State Business Leaders Expecting Economic Growth

• April 9th, 2021

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – In the latest quarterly survey by researchers at The University of Alabama, business leaders in the state are feeling more encouraged about the economy than they have since the global pandemic began.

The UA Center for Business and Economic Research’s most recent Alabama Business Confidence Index shows that local business leaders have strong expectations for economic growth in the second quarter of 2021. The statewide business confidence index was 64.3, up more than eight points from the survey of the first quarter of 2021.

It’s one of the highest indexes ever and the most confident business leaders have been in the economy since the second quarter of 2019. It continues a steady recovery of confidence since the early days of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, when the ABCI decreased to 50.5 and business leaders were uncertain of what the coming quarter would hold for the economy.

An index over 50 indicates a positive forecast compared to the previous quarter, and the higher the number, the more confident the forecast. The statewide and national forecasts, along with industry-specific components like sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures comprise the six indexes that combine to make the ABCI total.

“This outlook suggests that business leaders in Alabama are ‘shaking off the pandemic,’” said Susannah Robichaux, a socioeconomic analyst for the center. “When there is a higher ABCI, it signals that business leaders are feeling optimistic about the coming quarter, which is absolutely informing their own decisions about their businesses.”

Business leaders expect to see an increase in sales, profits, hiring and expenditures in the second quarter, according to the survey.

Firms of all sizes reported especially strong confidence in growth compared to last quarter, though small firms with fewer than 20 employees had the most confidence.

In a telling sign from the survey, business leaders feel strongly they will increase hiring in the second quarter compared to the first. Only 6.5% of respondents expected to decrease hiring, and the healthcare and social assistance industry is the only one of nine industry categories that expects to possibly decrease in hiring, hinting at expectations of a possible contraction after a year of industry expansion.

Overall, business leaders are more confident in the state economy than the national outlook, but confidence in both increased from the first quarter of 2021.

The breakdown of all the industry forecasts by sector can be seen in the statewide ABCI report on CBER’s website.

In addition to the statewide ABCI report, CBER also collects ABCI data to write individual reports for Alabama’s five major metro areas. These metro reports offer insight into the forecasts for each specific region.

Examining County Unemployment during COVID-19

• September 1st, 2020

Authored by: Nyesha C. Black, Ph.D.

Alabama’s unemployment rate increased by nearly 300% from March to April of this year after stay-at-home orders were implemented to thwart the spread of COVID-19. While this gives us a broad-stroke view of what transpired this spring, it is worth noting that the economic shock of the pandemic affected counties differently. The dramatic variance in unemployment from Q1 to Q2 can be clearly observed in the data visualization below. The graph shows each county’s unemployment rates for January through June as color-coded dots. The unemployment rate peaked in April, among all counties, so those data points were used to sort the counties from lowest peak unemployment rate to the highest.

Even before the pandemic, the unemployment rate varied greatly across the state. For example, the average unemployment rate during Q1 ranged from 2.3% in Shelby County to 9.0% in Wilcox County. However, by Q2, the spread was much more significant. The average unemployment rate ranged from 6.4% in Clay County to 20.2% in Lowndes County. It seems as though the differences in the counties unemployment rates were exacerbated by COVID-19. Several counties in the Black Belt already had higher unemployment rates in Q1 and experienced much higher rates in Q2 than counties with lower unemployment rates in Q1. In April, six counties, all in the Black Belt, had unemployment rates higher than 20%.

In June, unemployment rates rebounded, but the rates were still markedly higher, across all counties, compared to the end of the first quarter. By June, no county had returned to the unemployment rates in Q1, but some counties made better progress than others. For example, Clay County had unemployment rates that were the most comparable to March, but the unemployment rate for the county was still 40% higher in June. In comparison, Montgomery County unemployment rate rebounded the least among all the 67 counties, and had rates that were more than twice as high in June compared to March.

Last Push for Alabama’s 2020 Census

• August 31st, 2020

As the lead for the Census partnership with the State of Alabama, CBER’s Alabama State Data Center is working to ensure that Alabama Counts! With high stakes on the line, including 2 congressional seats, billions of federal dollars of funding, and the importance of accurate data that will inform planning and decisions for the next 10 years, it is critical that Alabama work hard to get everyone counted before the September 30th deadline.

Alabama currently only has a 61.7% self response rate, but there’s still time to make sure your community participates in the Census. Folks can still self-respond from any computer or smart device at https://2020census.gov/ or can fill out their Census using the official 2020 response line at 884-330-2020.

Below are some links to resources for Alabama’s 2020 Census. Click the headline to read more about them.

Census Bowl has 32 counties compete for $65,000!
As the 2020 Census comes to an end on September 30th, the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs and Alabama Counts! are launching one final effort to boost self-response rates: the Alabama Census Bowl. Thirty-two counties will compete in a March Madness-style bracket to see who can have the greatest increase in their self-response rates each week. The top 8 counties will receive grants for their local public school systems ranging from $20,000 to $64,000. Get involved in your community or follow along here.

In-person Census Follow-Up Response has Begun
Please let your communities know that Census workers have begun going door-to-door to count the households that have not yet responded to the 2020 Census. Census workers have been trained to follow proper health and safety guidelines, and will carry a valid ID badge with their photograph, so you can be confirm their ID. Read more about what to expect here, and share widely!

2020 Census Toolkit – Free Resources
Check out these free 2020 Census promotional materials that include hype videos with Alabama celebrities, informational posters, door hangers, graphics for social media posts, yard signs, and more! There is also specialized material tailored to different community groups and entities, so there’s something for everyone.

Thousands of Alabama Addresses Added in 2020 Count Review

• March 31st, 2020

Staff from the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) recently participated in the Census Bureau’s Count Review Event.  The Count Review Event is a nation-wide effort coordinated by the Census Bureau to improve the quality of their Master Address File, which is the list of addresses the Census Bureau will work from while conducting the 2020 Census.  This effort contributed to enhancing the accuracy and completeness of the 2020 Census.  CBER staff members involved in the Count Review Event included Viktoria Riiman, Shannon Murphy, Susannah Robichaux, Stephanie Normanyo, and Kilungu Nzaku.

To prepare for the Count Review Event, CBER staff put out a call to city- and county-level stakeholders throughout Alabama in an effort to gather up-to-date lists of group quarter and housing unit addresses.  The help these stakeholders offered was absolutely essential during the Count Review Event, as they provided the lists of addresses that were checked against the Census Bureau’s Master Address File.  If the addresses were not already included in the Census Bureau’s Master Address File, they were flagged for possible inclusion during the 2020 Census counts of each state’s total population, housing units, and group quarters.

The 2020 Count Review Event was held during a four-week period earlier this year, from January 13 to February 6.  The first half of the Count Review Event focused on group quarters, which include non-federal correctional facilities, nursing facilities, college/university on-campus housing, military barracks, workers’ group living quarters, and job corps facilities.  Thanks to the hard work of CBER staff, 200 group quarter addresses were added to the Census Bureau’s Master Address File for Alabama to include people who otherwise would not have been counted during the 2020 Census.  The second half of the Count Review Event focused on residential housing units.  During this phase of the event, CBER was able to add 21,470 housing units that were new to the Census Bureau’s Master Address File and matched to the United States Postal Service’s address files.  These housing unit addresses are being sent to the next step of reconciliation for possible addition to the Census Bureau’s workload in counting people who live in residential homes.

The 2020 Census is very important to the future of Alabama and CBER staff are doing their part by making sure the Census Bureau’s Master Address File is as accurate and complete as possible.  Remember—Alabama Counts!

COVID-19 and the Economy

• March 31st, 2020

In the midst of the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, CBER’s experts are here to offer some insight. Sam Addy, Associate Dean for Economic Development Outreach & Senior Research Economist, and Ahmad Ijaz, CBER’s Executive Director & Director of Economic Forecasting weigh in with what we can expect in our local and national economies in the coming months.

People are at the core of the economy, playing roles on both the demand side as consumers and the supply side as workers, innovators, investors, entrepreneurs, proprietors, providers, etc. As such, the health of people and their educational attainment are key to development. People’s health is crucial because healthy people can learn and contribute, but sickness makes people unable to contribute regardless of how educated and skilled or talented they may be. By presenting a danger to people’s health, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has the potential to cause substantial harm to every local, regional, national, and the global economy.

The proper response to this danger is to use resources to address survival first, recovery next, and development later. It is important to note that pandemics occur within economies and so are not separate from them. As such, the nature of the response determines the resulting state of the economy; a good response will result in a better economy than an abysmal response would. Survival and recovery require significant resources, but are necessary to ensure that when the pandemic is controlled, the essential human capital, physical and natural/environmental capital, and public and private institutions will still be available to enable a renewed focus on development. Fortunately, the United States has the resources (human, financial, institutions, and infrastructure) to work this Survival-Recovery-Development strategy even if controlling the pandemic takes 18 months as some medical experts have predicted. In addition, even if the nation’s wealth falls considerably in the process of confronting the pandemic, the nation will still be very affluent afterward.

United States

COVID-19 will cause all sectors of the economy to experience negative effects during this time, but firms in certain sectors (e.g., health-related, logistics, communications and technology, repurposed manufacturing) could fare better than others. While the direction of effects is clearly that there will be contraction from earlier expectations and forecasts, the magnitude is unknown at this time since the direct health effects are themselves unknown. It will depend greatly on (i) governmental policies and actions that are adopted and implemented at all levels (federal, state, and local) and (ii) how people behave; specifically, how seriously they take and respond to directives and policies. From a resource perspective, the composition, design, and size of the response packages that Congress and the Federal Reserve put in place will be of utmost importance. Response to the pandemic must include a medical component to people and health-related institutions for survival as well as assistance to people, government, businesses and other institutions (both nonprofit and for profit) for survival and economic recovery.

The financial accounts of the United States (FAUS) show that household net worth rose to $113.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019. This is net of $53.9 trillion in domestic nonfinancial debt outstanding ($16.0 trillion household debt, $16.0 trillion nonfinancial business debt, and $21.9 trillion government debt). In 2018, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was $20.6 trillion and total employment was about 200.7 million (154.4 million wage and salary employment and 46.4 million proprietors). Personal income was $17.8 trillion, of which wages and salaries totaled $8.9 trillion. State and local governments had total revenue of $3.9 trillion in 2017 with $710 billion coming from federal coffers. COVID-19 will cause severe declines in GDP, personal income, employment, wages and salaries, government revenues, and other relevant economic indicators. The above-mentioned data suggest that survival and recovery for the nation during this pandemic will require injection of about $1 trillion a month, which the FAUS data suggest that the nation can afford.

Alabama

Alabama accounts for 1.1 percent of U.S. GDP and 1.5 percent of the population, which defines a potential range regarding COVID-19 impacts on the state economy relative to national impacts. For example, a $1 trillion national impact could mean an $11 billion to $15 billion impact on Alabama. However, several factors can make the range larger or smaller. These include the nature of the impacts, the behavioral component of the response, and differences in demographics and economic structure. Second quarter Alabama GDP will most likely decline by about 3-4 percent, with employment falling much faster. Any recovery in the third quarter will be quite weak due to supply-side constraints facing Alabama manufacturers and weak consumer demand and business spending. Optimistically, the state economy will be back on a normal path of recovery by the fourth quarter.

Portions of the economy at risk of significant declines include travel and travel-related businesses, food services and eating places, tourism and leisure, support services, auto dealers, gas stations, education, manufacturing firms that rely on exports and/or overseas suppliers for their inputs, and other businesses that depend on consumer and business spending. These firms together employ nearly 1.2 million workers (or about 58 percent) of the total nonfarm employment in the state and their multiplier effects on the rest of the state’s economy could make it difficult for the economy to recover in the third quarter. Furloughs and layoffs will be common. The expected significant declines in economic activity will adversely affect income, sales, lodging, gas, and other tax revenues for both state and local government entities.

Business investment spending has been mostly weak for the last couple of years. COVID-19 effects and the large drop in oil prices will most likely push business spending into much deeper negative territory. Weaker economic growth in the rest of the world will also hurt Alabama’s exports; in 2019, Alabama exports to China, the state’s third largest trading partner, totaled $2.2 billion, about 11 percent of the state’s total exports. The global economy is most likely already in recession. Overall, the length of the downturn and the subsequent recovery will depend on how strong the policy responses (both monetary and fiscal) are and how these policies help businesses, state and local governments, and households weather the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CBER Reviews Alabama Addresses for 2020 Census

• March 3rd, 2020

The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) is working with the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure a complete count for the 2020 Census by reviewing Alabama’s address files. Local governments and planning agencies responded to our call for data, and CBER was able to verify, clean, and update addresses throughout the state. These addresses were submitted to the Census Bureau, where they will be added to the Census Master Address File and used to enumerate the 2020 Census.

At CBER we know that good data is essential for quality analyses and impactful results. This is why CBER is taking its role in the 2020 Census Count Review seriously. A recent study by George Washington University shows that in FY2016 Alabama was allocated over $13 billion in federal funding to support programs throughout the state. This funding is based on data collected in the decennial census, and an undercount in 2020 could mean underfunding for essential federal programs throughout Alabama like Medicaid; SNAP; Highway Planning and Construction; and Pell Grants, to name a few. 

Alabama’s address files for the 2020 Census are looking great, thanks to cooperation from local governments and planning agencies throughout the state. Now, it is up to you to participate and encourage others to do the same. Invitations to participate in the 2020 Census will arrive in the mail March 12-20 with instructions for responding online, so stay on the lookout for this exciting and important way to make sure that Alabama Counts!