ASDC Network Answers 865 Data Requests in 2024

• May 12th, 2025

The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research is the lead Alabama State Data Center (ASDC) organization, but the network also includes some amazing affiliates with a wide range of expertise. Each year, we compile a report detailing all of the work being done throughout the state on behalf of the network. This year, twelve affiliates responded, and the numbers are really impressive!

In 2024, the Alabama State Data Center network filled 865 data requests. Of those, 845 were filled free of charge. The chart below shows who the data requests came from broken down into seven main categories. Over a third of 2024’s data requests to the ASDC came from government agencies, but many businesses and private citizens also reached out to affiliates to help access or understand data.

The ASDC was formed in 1978 as a partnership between the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of Alabama. Throughout the years, the technology has changed, but the mission has remained the same: to make data available locally to the public through a network of state agencies, universities, libraries, and regional and local governments and to foster two-way communications with the bureau on data usability and user needs.

One of the most important jobs of an ASDC affiliate is to help people in Alabama access and understand data, so we’ll answer questions, help you find and access data, or connect you with Census Bureau experts for free. Whether you are trying to describe your community so you can better serve them or apply for grants, or if you are interested in learning more about genealogy to understand your own history, or if you want to learn more about the businesses in your community before you embark on your own venture, the Alabama State Data Center can help!

In-Migration Continues to Drive Growth in Alabama’s Counties

• March 13th, 2025

From 2023 to 2024, 41 of Alabama’s 67 counties experienced population growth according to new estimates released on March 13, 2025 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program.

Population can grow in two ways: through a natural increase, which is when births outnumber deaths in an area, or through positive net migration, which is when more people move into an area than out of it.

Overall, the state’s population grew by 40,026 people from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024. During that period, Alabama experienced a natural decrease: deaths outnumbered births in the state by 1,732. However, that was significantly offset by positive net migration: 41,791 more people moved into Alabama than out of it. Just over 62 percent (26,028) of those people moved to Alabama from somewhere else in the US, while the remaining 38 percent (15,763) moved from somewhere internationally.[1]

Population Growth by County from 2023 to 2024

Breaking it down into smaller geographies, the population in 34 of Alabama’s 67 counties grew by more than 100 people from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024; 20 counties either gained or lost fewer than 100 people; and 14 counties saw population decreases of more than 100 people in from 2023 to 2024.

Six counties had significantly more in-migration than the rest of the counties, with a net migration higher than 1,400 people: Madison, Baldwin, Limestone, Shelby, Tuscaloosa, and St. Clair. Those six counties also had the highest total population growth by raw numbers (see Table 1).

Madison County and Baldwin County had the highest population growth by raw numbers, with their respective populations increasing by 9,464 and 7,501 people over the year. Madison County had 793 more births than deaths, adding to their population growth, but Baldwin County actually had a negative natural change, with 150 more deaths than births from July 1, 2023 to July, 1 2024.

Table 1: Six High-Growth Counties and Alabama Population
Components of Change from 2023 to 2024

View detailed table here that includes all 67 counties as well as detailed breakdowns of the components of change.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

Population Growth by MSA from 2023 to 2024

Much of the state’s growth from 2023 to 2024 occurred in counties that are part of Alabama’s twelve metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The Census Bureau defines the general concept of a metropolitan as that of an urban core area of 50,000 inhabitants or more, together with adjacent counties that have a high degree of economic and social integration with that core.

All of Alabama’s twelve MSAs experienced some population growth from 2023 to 2024, though the scale of that growth ranged from just a few people to several thousands (see Table 2). The Huntsville MSA, which includes Madison and Limestone counties, had the highest population growth, while the Birmingham and Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSAs also saw significant growth of over 6,000 people.

All of the MSAs had positive net migration while only half experienced natural growth. Birmingham had the third highest net migration of the MSAs and was notably the only one to have higher international net migration (3,751) than domestic (2,205).

Table 2: Alabama MSA Population Components of Change from 2023 to 2024

View detailed table here that includes detailed breakdowns of the components of change for the MSAs as well as Alabama’s 12 micropolitan statistical areas.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

All of the latest population estimates for Alabama as well as its counties, MSAs, cities, and towns can be found in easy-to-use spreadsheets on CBER’s Alabama Demographics page. These data are provided as a free service from the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research as part of their role as the lead agency for the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC) and for the Federal State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE). If you have any questions about this or other local data, please feel free to reach out to CBER’s socioeconomic team: Dr. Nyesha Black (ncblack@ua.edu) or Susannah Robichaux (scrobichaux@ua.edu).

[1] Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both U.S.-born and non-U.S.-born populations. Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the non-U.S. born, (b) the net migration of U.S. born to and from the United States, (c) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.

2023 Population Estimates for Alabama Cities and Towns

• May 22nd, 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau released updated population estimates last week for Alabama’s 462 incorporated cities and towns. The new data estimates the population on July 1, 2023 using birth, death, and migration statistics, and revises the estimates for 2022, 2021, and 2020. These new estimates, along with other useful data, can be found on the Alabama Demographics page on the website of the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama.

Click here to view the interactive map with the 2023 population data for cities and towns:Data Source:  2023 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau Map made by Dr. Komla Khoumi

Population Growth

From 2022 to 2023, 259 cities and towns in Alabama experienced some population growth, gaining at least one person. Fifty-one of those places grew by more than 100 people, and six increased their population by more than 1,000 people. Table 1 below has the cities and towns in Alabama with the highest population growth.

Alabama’s Largest Cities

Population trends in the state’s fifteen largest cities varied: six large cities grew by more than 500 people, with the most growth in Huntsville (3,534), Athens (2,262), and Auburn (1,648).  Five of the state’s largest cities grew by less than 400 people, with some population levels only growing modestly. Four of the largest cities lost more than 100 people, with the largest decreases in the cities of Montgomery (-1,657) and Mobile (-695). Table 2 shows the population changes from 2022 to 2023 for Alabama’s largest cities.

Huntsville continued to experience significant growth, adding almost 10 people per day from 2022 to 2023 to reach a population of over 225,000. Huntsville has been Alabama’s most populous city since 2020 and, as of 2023, has almost 30,000 more people than the state’s next largest cities, Birmingham and Montgomery.

Fast Growing Populations

Fast-growing places are those with a high growth rate in population from 2022 to 2023. Of the fifteen fastest growing cities and towns in Alabama, four were in Baldwin County: Silverhill, Foley, Loxley, and Fairhope. Two other counties also had more than one city rank on as some of the fastest growing places: Triana and Owens Cross Roads are in Madison County, and Odenville and Margaret are in St. Clair County.

Population Loss

Some cities in Alabama lost population from 2022 to 2023, according to the latest estimates. Fifteen cities’ populations decreased by more than 100 people from 2022 to 2023. Eight of those cities were in Jefferson County, which you can see marked by an asterisk in Table 4.

Analysis and text by Susannah Robichaux, Socioeconomic Analyst and lead for the Alabama State Data Center. Interactive map by Dr. Komla Khoumi, Assistant Research Professional.

Mildly Confident Expansionary Forecast for Q2 2024

• April 16th, 2024

Reports for the Q2 2024 Alabama Business Confidence Index Now Available

The Alabama Business Confidence Index (ABCI) grew by 4.8 points to reach a mildly confident expansionary index of 54.1 in the Q2 2024 survey. All six component indexes saw increases from their Q1 2024 levels, though the magnitude varied from fairly low increase (2.2 points) to a large leap (9.6 points). Business leaders are forecasting second quarter growth with mild to strong confidence for all of the industry component indexes and the Alabama economy. The only negative index for the quarter is the US outlook, which has been contractionary since Q1 2022.

View the ABCI homepage for more details on the specific components of the statewide ABCI forecast which are also broken down by industry and firm size; or view individual metro reports for Birmingham-Hoover, Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, and Huntsville. Historical reports are available for download from the ABCI archive.

Free 2023 ASDC Fall Data Conference

• October 10th, 2023

The Alabama State Data Center (ASDC), housed in the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) hosted its annual Census data conference on Thursday, November 9, 2022 from 9:00am to 12:30pm CST. The free virtual conference included presentations on the latest updates from the Census Bureau’s 2020 urban-rural classification system; the Population Estimates Program; the Economic Census; and the recently published 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics file.

Click on the red, bold titles below to view the slides for the presentations. For recordings of the webinars, reach out to Susannah Robichaux, CBER socioeconomic analyst and lead for the ASDC, at scrobichaux@ua.edu.

Alabama State Data Center Fall 2023 Conference
Thursday, November 9, 2022: 9:00am – 12:30pm

Welcome and Introductions | Susannah Robichaux, ASDC Lead / Socioeconomic Analyst, The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research; and Devon Reed, Liaison to the State Data Centers and Census Information Centers, Data Users Branch, U.S. Census Bureau.

Population Estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau| Kevin Barragan-Smith, Demographer/Statistician Coordination, Dissemination, and Outreach Branch, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. This presentation was an overview of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP), which produces population and housing estimates for the United States, its states, counties, cities, and towns. It included some background information about how the estimates are made, what estimates are available, and a detailed walkthrough of how to access estimates. It also gave an introduction to the Population Estimates Challenge Program, which allows governmental units to submit requests to revisit that year’s estimate if they suspect there has been a technical error or incorrect input data. Lastly, it covered the national population projections released by the PEP. As a reminder, CBER produces county population projections that are available on our Alabama Demographics page.

2020 Census Data Products and Disclosure Avoidance | Matthew Spense, Senior Advisor for Special Population Statistics and Disclosure Avoidance, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. This webinar was an overview of 2020 data collection, data protection (differential privacy), and the data products released including the Apportionment file, Redistricting data; and the Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC).

Economic Census Updates | Adam P. Grundy, Supervisor, Data User and Trade Outreach Branch, Economic Management Division, U.S. Census Bureau. The Economic Census provides the most comprehensive measure of the U.S. economy, producing industry statistics at the national, state, and local levels. Its data products provide the foundation for other key measures of economic performance. This information is used by businesses, policy makers, local governments, communities, individuals, students, and researchers for economic development, business decisions, strategic planning, and data reports. This presentation will be an overview of the program and the available data products. It also had a detailed walkthrough of how to use the Census Business Builder 5.3.

2020 Urban/Rural & Geography Updates | Byron White, Geographer, Address and Spatial Analysis Branch, Geography Division, U.S. Census Bureau. This presentation offered an overview of the Census Bureau’s urban area criteria; the key changes for the 2020 Census Urban Areas; key 2020 Census Urban Area trends; and what is next for urban areas.

Q2 2023 Business Confidence Remains Negative

• April 18th, 2023

Business leaders throughout Alabama still have an overall mildly negative forecast for Q2 2023, according to the latest Alabama Business Confidence Index (ABCI) survey. This is the fourth consecutive quarter that the index has been negative, though it is slightly less negative than last quarter’s ABCI. Business confidence has been declining since Q4 2021, but interestingly, the highest and lowest component indexes have been consistent these last seven quarters: hiring has been the highest index and is the only index to remain positive the entire time, and the US outlook has been the lowest index, consistently registering more than 10 points below the other indexes.

On the ABCI website, you can view the detailed ABCI metro reports for Birmingham-Hoover, Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, and Tuscaloosa; the full statewide report that includes an overview for Alabama and the ABCI broken down by industry and firm size; and access historical data. Read on for an overview.

CBER’s forecasters are anticipating very mild growth in 2023, with a 0.5-percent increase in Alabama GDP for 2023. Though positive, it is a slower rate of GDP growth than seen in 2021 (5.1 percent) and 2022 (1.6 percent). Alabama employment growth is expected to plateau in 2023, only growing by about 0.3 percent. Total tax receipts are forecast to grow by 5.3 percent in FY2023. While this is more growth than predicted for GDP and employment, it is still a notable decrease from last year’s 15.2-percent.

The forecasts from the metro areas ranged from moderately negative to mildly positive in the Q2 2023 survey. Business leaders in Huntsville had the highest ABCI at 52.0, making them the only metro with a positive outlook for the quarter. Mobile was not far behind, though, with a neutral ABCI of 49.6. Tuscaloosa had mild confidence in their negative forecast (45.7), which was tempered by mildly positive forecasts for industry sales and hiring. Montgomery and Birmingham–Hoover had the lowest ABCIs for the quarter at 43.8 and 43.0, respectively, with all of their component indexes registering at or below the neutral 50.

The industry index, which only includes panelists’ forecasts for their own industry sales, profits, hiring, and capital expenditures, ranged from mildly negative to moderately positive in the Q2 2023 survey. In Q2 2023, panelists in professional, scientific, and technical services and construction are continuing to forecast growth with mild confidence, but they are also joined by “All Other Services” and manufacturing, whose indexes grew significantly from Q1 2023 to reach moderately high levels of confidence in their positive outlook.

Though it remained negative, the index for retail trade had the highest increase from last quarter growing 9.4 points from its very negative Q1 2023 index to reach a moderately negative 43.8. Expectations for hiring in retail are positive, but business leaders in the industry are forecasting decreased capital spending with very strong confidence in Q2 2023. The outlook from business leaders in finance, insurance, and real estate was the lowest industry index for the quarter at a moderately negative 42.6. This was the only industry category to have negative forecasts for all of the component indexes.

Though the ABCIs by firm size all remained below 50, there were varied levels of confidence in the forecasts for the component indexes. Midsize firms, those with 20 to 99 employees, had the highest Q2 2023 ABCI which increased 6.8 points to reach an almost neutral 49.5 for the quarter. This comes after three quarters of the midsize ABCI being the lowest industry firm ABCI. Small firms, those with up to 19 employees, had a mildly negative ABCI of 48.8 for the quarter. Large firms had the lowest ABCI of the three groupings at a mildly negative 46.7, which is only 0.1 points above the Q1 2023 large firm ABCI, indicating a continuation of last quarter’s forecasts.

This makes 86 consecutive quarters that the Center for Business and Economic Research in UA’s Culverhouse College of Business has measured sentiment about the economy and industry prospects in the state. If you are a business leader in the state, be sure to do your part by registering to be an ABCI panelist and contributing to this unique forecasting tool in the Q3 2023 survey from June 1-17.

You can view past and current reports by clicking on the buttons above or following this link: https://cber.culverhouse.ua.edu/alabama-business-confidence-index/.

Negative Business Confidence in Q1 2023 ABCI

• February 6th, 2023

Business confidence throughout the state remained mildly negative in the Q1 2023 Alabama Business Confidence Index (ABCI) survey. With over 60 percent of panelists forecasting worse conditions, the outlook for the US economy was the lowest for the quarter at 34.4. This quarter, the indexes for all of the industry categories fell: industry profits and capital expenditures are expected to decrease with mild confidence while sales are forecast to continue at the same rate as last quarter. Industry hiring was the only positive index for Q1 2023 with a mildly positive index of 53.6, with 34 percent of panelists anticipating an increase in their hiring compared to Q4 2022.

CBER’s forecasters expect very mild growth in 2023. The rebound of Alabama GDP is slowing, with only a 0.1-percent increase expected this year, and employment in the state is forecasted to remain somewhat stable and only decrease by 0.3 percent. Despite that, CBER anticipates significant growth in the Alabama tax receipts due to strong consumer spending.

The ABCIs for Alabama’s metro areas are all below 50 this quarter, but level of confidence in those forecasts varied. Huntsville had the highest ABCI at a mildly negative 47.9, followed closely by Mobile at 47.0. Both metros had moderately confident hiring indexes, which set them apart from the other metros. Tuscaloosa had an ABCI of 45.6, with neutral expectations for sales and hiring. Birmingham-Hoover and Montgomery had the lowest ABCIs of 43.5 and 42.9, respectively. The indexes in these metros were all mildly to strongly negative, with the exception of Montgomery’s mildly positive hiring forecast.

Panelists in professional, scientific, and technical services had the highest industry index at a moderately positive 55.9, with strongly confident expectations for increased sales and hiring compared to the previous quarter. Business leaders in construction are also forecasting increased hiring and sales, though with milder confidence, leading them to be the only other group to have a positive industry index at 52.5. Five of the nine industry groups still have positive expectations for hiring in Q1 2023, but most industries are forecasting decreased profits and capital spending compared to their Q4 2022 levels.

All three firm size groupings had negative ABCIs in the Q1 2023 survey. Midsize firms, those with 20 to 99 employees, had the lowest ABCI at a moderately negative 42.7, while the ABCIs for small firms, those with up to 19 employees, and large firms, those with 100 or more employees, were only mildly negative. This is the third consecutive quarter that the midsize firms have had a lower ABCI than their counterparts. Midsize firms had the lowest values for all of the component indexes in the Q1 2023 survey except hiring, where their moderately positive index of 55.1 was the most confident of all the groupings’ forecasts.

The ABCI is an initiative of the Center for Business and Economic Research located in the Culverhouse College of Business, The University of Alabama. This makes 85 consecutive quarters that the Center for Business and Economic Research in UA’s Culverhouse College of Business has measured sentiment about the economy and industry prospects in the state. Be sure to do your part by contributing to this unique forecasting tool in the Q2 2023 survey on March 1-17. You can view past and current reports by clicking on the buttons above or following this link: https://cber.culverhouse.ua.edu/alabama-business-confidence-index/.

State Business Leaders Still Sour on Economy – Q4 2022 ABCI Results

• October 25th, 2022

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – For the second consecutive quarter, state business leaders have a negative outlook on the economy, according to the latest quarterly survey by The University of Alabama.

The UA Center for Business and Economic Research’s latest Alabama Business Confidence Index, taken in early September, remains slightly negative following a similar outlook in the snapshot taken over the summer, the first negative outlook for the economy since early 2013.

“Panelists are still forecasting worse economic conditions in the U.S. with very strong confidence, in contrast with their more positive expectations for growth in industry hiring, sales, and capital expenditures,” said Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER.

The Alabama Business Confidence Index was 48.4, up slightly from last quarter, and marks the first time the index hasn’t dropped in a year. An index over 50 indicates a positive forecast compared to the previous quarter, and the closer the number is to 100, the more confident the forecast.

ABCI is gathered from a broad group of business executives across the state with six key indicators and a composite index. The statewide and national forecasts, along with industry-specific components like sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures comprise the six indexes that combine to make the ABCI total.

Panelists continue to be more negative about the U.S. economy than the state’s economy, registering a 34.6 confidence index nationally and a moderately negative 46.3 index for Alabama. Still, those were greater than indices from last quarter.

Earlier this year, CBER economists had predicted Alabama’s economy would grow about 3% in 2022, but have since revised that outlook to 1.8% growth.

The report also breaks down responses from nine industry groups surveyed. The healthcare and social assistance industry, in stark contrast to the last two quarters, had a positive outlook, registering a 50.6 index. In the past two quarters, this industry had the most negative outlook out of all sectors.

“Panelists in the industry are optimistic that they will have increased hiring, sales, and profits, indicating expectations for a rebound from their two quarters of depressed forecasts,” Robichaux said.

Firms of all sizes had mildly negative outlooks for their companies.

“Panelists in large firms are forecasting growth in all of the industry components, while small firms had a negative profits index counteracting their optimism for sales, hiring and capital expenditures,” Robichaux said. “Mid-sized firms are still anticipating increased hiring in the fourth quarter of 2022, but the rest of their component indexes were negative.”

The breakdown of all the industry forecasts by sector can be seen in the statewide ABCI report on CBER’s website.

In addition to the statewide ABCI report, CBER also collects ABCI data to write individual reports for Alabama metro areas. These metro reports offer insight into the forecasts for each specific region. Interestingly, the business leaders in Tuscaloosa are feeling most confident of the three metro areas represented in the latest survey that included Huntsville and Birmingham.

Source: Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER, scrobichaux@cba.ua.edu

Press release written by Adam Jones, UA Strategic Communications.

Free 2022 ASDC Fall Data Conference

• October 10th, 2022

The Alabama State Data Center (ASDC), housed in the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) hosted a Census data conference this fall on Wednesday, November 9, 2022 from 8:30am to 1:00pm CST. The virtual conference included presentations on the latest updates from Data.Census.gov; the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS); how to access PUMS data and make custom tables using the Census Bureau’s MDAT tool; an update on the urban and rural classification; and an overview of local geographic news. The speakers came from the Census headquarters as well as from the regional office in Atlanta.

Click on the red, bold titles below to view the slides for the presentations. For recordings of the webinars, reach out to Susannah Robichaux, CBER socioeconomic analyst and lead for the ASDC, at scrobichaux@ua.edu.

Alabama State Data Center Fall 2022 Conference
Wednesday, November 9, 2022: 8:30am – 1:00pm

Welcome and Introductions | Susannah Robichaux, ASDC Lead / Socioeconomic Analyst, The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research; and Devon Reed, Customer Liaison and Marketing Services Office, Data Users Branch, U.S. Census Bureau.

Data.Census.Gov Updates| Kanin Reese, Chief, Dissemination Outreach Branch – Center for Enterprise Dissemination, U.S. Census Bureau. Data.census.gov is the Census Bureau’s primary data search tool. This new platform allows users to spend less time searching for data and content by accessing available data from one centralized place. Since the platform is driven by user feedback, enhancements and upgrades to the tool are being implemented regularly. This webinar featured a how-to training for the tool, an overview if it’s latest functions, and upcoming enhancements and data releases.

Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS)| Monica Dukes, Alabama Data Dissemination Specialist, Data Dissemination and Training Branch, U.S. Census Bureau. Are you a data user that can’t find what you are looking for in the pre tabulated ACS data products? Then the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) may be what you are looking for. The PUMS files are a set of untabulated records about individual people or housing units, which allow data users to create custom estimates and tables free of charge. This presentation provided an overview of PUMS files and their usage.

Microdata Access Tool (MDAT)| Kanin Reese, U.S. Census Bureau. The Microdata Access Tool (MDAT), available through data.census.gov, allows users to create custom tabulations with various available Public Use Microdata sets and vintages. This webinar covered the basics of using the MDAT tool, including how to access microdata, and a demonstration on how to access data, and create custom tabulations, for topics like sex, age, race and ethnicity, income and poverty, and more.

Urban and Rural Classification and Criteria | B. Rush White, Geographer, Geography Division, U.S. Census Bureau. This webinar offered a review of the 2010 Urban and Rural classifications as well as the 2020 criteria by discussing changes in approaches to interpreting and understanding the growth of urban areas, improved technology making it easier to manage large amounts of data, and increased spatial resolution of statistical and geospatial data.

Geographic Partnership Updates | William Curry, Geographer, Atlanta Regional Census Center/Field Division, U.S. Census Bureau. *No slides were used.* This presentation touched on the various geographic updates using these helpful flyers: Count Question Resolution Program, 2020 Post Census Group Quarters Review, and 2023 Boundary and Annexation Survey.

State Business Leaders Uncertain on Short-Term U.S. Economy

• April 12th, 2022

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – Even with confidence in the state economy growing along with increasing industry profits and sales, state business leaders are decidedly negative in their outlook for the nation’s economy, according to the latest quarterly survey by The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

The UA Center for Business and Economic Research’s latest Alabama Business Confidence Index, taken in early March, showed nearly 58% of business leaders forecast worse economic conditions for the United States in the second quarter of 2022.

“Inflation is a big part of the concerns for the U.S. economy,” said Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER. “Small and mid-sized firms had notably lower U.S. economic outlooks than large firms, which makes sense since these smaller businesses have tighter margins and would feel the impact of inflation sooner than their larger counterparts.”

The Alabama Business Confidence Index was 54.6, meaning state business leaders have mostly positive economic expectations for their businesses and the state economy in the upcoming quarter, however the latest survey continues the downward trend. An index over 50 indicates a positive forecast compared to the previous quarter, and the higher the number, the more confident the forecast.

The ABCI dropped 2.6 points from the last survey and is down from 67 in a survey taken in June 2021, just before a resurgence of the coronavirus through the Delta variant.

ABCI is gathered from a broad group of business executives across the state with six key indicators and a composite index. The statewide and national forecasts, along with industry-specific components like sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures comprise the six indexes that combine to make the ABCI total.

While panelists have an overall positive outlook on the economy, nationally, business leaders aren’t as optimistic, reflected in an index of 38.5 for the national economy. In fact, state business leaders have not had a positive outlook for the U.S. economy since that survey snapshot before Delta.

“On one hand we have a relatively strong economy with very strong labor markets, both in terms of hiring and new job creation, labor force participation rate continues to tick upwards, corporate profits look great, and housing markets are doing well,” said Ahmad Ijaz, CEBR executive director. “But there are also signs pointing to the fact that the economy may be headed for a recession.”

Ijaz listed higher prices, falling exports, soaring inflation, rising interest rates, long-term interest rates currently lower than short-term rates, and the continued effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Earlier this year, Ijaz and economists at CBER had predicted Alabama’s economy would grow about 3% in 2022, but have since revised that outlook to 2.7% growth.

Six of the nine industry groups surveyed remain positive in their outlook for the second quarter, with healthcare and social assistance businesses reporting the lowest negative outlook.

The breakdown of all the industry forecasts by sector can be seen in the statewide ABCI report on CBER’s website.

In addition to the statewide ABCI report, CBER also collects ABCI data to write individual reports for Alabama’s five major metro areas. These metro reports offer insight into the forecasts for each specific region.

Source: Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER, scrobichaux@cba.ua.edu

Press Release by Adam Jones, UA communications, 205-348-4328, adam.jones@ua.edu