It is likely to be a bleak Thanksgiving in much of Alabama, if the poverty rate estimates just released by the U.S. Census Bureau are any indication.

In the poverty estimates released today (11/22) for 1997, Shelby County is the only county in Alabama that doesn’t have double-digit poverty rates. The bureau estimated an overall poverty rate in Shelby County of about 6.8 percent in 1997. Shelby County is part of the Birmingham Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Annette Jones Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama, said the Census Bureau defines poverty according to guidelines set by the Office of Management and Budget.

“The poverty thresholds vary by family size and composition,” she said. “That is, a large family, and therefore every member in it, can be poor even if that family has somewhat more income than a small family. The poverty thresholds do not vary geographically, but they are updated annually for inflation. There is not a separate poverty threshold for Alabama from a state in the North or the West. The official poverty definition counts money income before taxes and does not include capital gains and non-cash benefits, such as public housing, Medicaid, and food stamps.”

Watters said after Shelby County, the next “least-poor counties” are not enough statistically different from each other to meaningfully rank one as more or less poor than another. The “least-poor counties” in Alabama are Autauga, Baldwin, Madison, and Morgan, which are located in the Montgomery, Mobile, Huntsville, and Decatur Metropolitan Statistical Areas, respectively.

According to Watters, Alabama’s poorest counties continue to be Black Belt counties with small populations.

“Perry, with 36.6 percent poverty, and Wilcox, with 36.1 percent poverty, seem to be tied for the poorest counties in Alabama. Greene, with 35.5 percent, and Sumter, with 33.1 percent, closely follow. Other Alabama counties with very high poverty rates are Macon, Lowndes, Dallas, Bullock, Conecuh, and Hale.”

Watters stressed that the new information is an estimate and not an actual count.

“The estimates have a range,” she said. “For example, the percent of Perry County’s population living in poverty could be as low as 28.4 percent or as high as 44.7 percent. The Census Bureau uses information form the Current Population Survey, the Food Stamp and Supplemental Security programs, summary data from federal income tax returns, and data from the 1990 census to derive the estimates.”

She also pointed that the just-released estimates “are much less precise than what we will learn from the long form of Census 2000. But we won’t get Census 2000 poverty data until 2002. Until then, these current estimates will be used to allocate federal funds to programs such as Head Start and numerous other programs that rely on formulas to calculate eligibility.”

But even in booming and affluent Shelby County, children fare the least well, according to Watters. About seven percent of Shelby County’s total population lives below the poverty line, but about 10 percent of the county’s children who are 17 or younger are living in poverty.

For poor counties, the plight of the children is worse. In Perry County about 45 percent of all children in the county live in poverty.

“If there is good news in this latest set of estimates, it is that poverty levels in Alabama have generally declined throughout the decade,” Watters said. “Even in very poor counties, fewer people are living in poverty now than at the beginning or the midpoint of the 1990s.”

The Alabama State Data Center, housed in the Center for Business and Economic Research at UA, is the lead agency in the state in a cooperative arrangement with the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The ASDA provides data, interpretation and analysis.

The UA Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, first began offering graduate education in 1924 and has been recognized repeatedly for offering a quality business program at a reasonable cost.

A chart of the counties is available.

Reapportionment numbers released in late December 2000 gave us a first look at Alabama’s actual population growth in the 1990s.  With an unadjusted total population of 4,447,100 as of April 1, 2000, Alabama has added 406,513 residents since the 1990 census.  This 10.1 percent growth rate lagged the U.S. gain of 13.2 percent and ranked Alabama twenty-fifth among the 50 states on percent change in population during the decade.  Rapid growth in Arizona’s population pushed Alabama’s total population ranking down one notch to twenty-third.

[Population counts and rankings are accessible at http://www.census.gov.]

Migration of College Graduates

More college graduates moved out of Alabama than moved in during 1999, according to a recent study.  Professors Beth Ingram and George Neumann of the University of Iowa used Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau data to calculate state-level in- and out-migration of college graduates.  An estimated 2.74 percent of all college graduates living in Alabama in 1999 had resided in a different state in 1998.  On the other hand, 5.35 percent of resident college graduates moved out of the state during the year.  Overall, Alabama saw a net loss of 2.61 percent of her college-educated residents from 1998 to 1999.  Nine states saw a higher percentage net outflow of college graduates during the year, including Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Washington.

State of Alabama and the South

Alabama’s economic progress over the 20 years from 1978 to 1997 was uneven, according to a recently released MDC Inc. study, State of the South 2000.  Both the state’s population and the number of jobs grew more slowly than the national average, with metropolitan areas far outpacing rural gains.  Among 14 southern states, Alabama ranked ninth on job growth from 1978 to 1997.  While 611,000 jobs were created in the state during this period, about 730,000 would have been created if job growth had progressed at the national rate.

The state made progress in improving its job mix, although it remained more reliant on old economy industries than most states.  During the 20-year period of the study, Alabama’s job growth flourished in retail, business and health services, transportation, and some durable manufacturing industries— including industrial machinery, electrical equipment, and motor vehicles.  But above-average job concentration in declining sectors—farming, nondurable manufacturing, and federal government— led to job losses.  As old economy industries have atrophied and new economy industries have grown, Alabama moved toward the mainstream of modern America.  With 32 high-tech employees per 1,000 workers in 1997 (compared to 45 for the United States), Alabama ranked twenty-ninth in the nation, but above average for the South.  Alabama’s 15.3 IT jobs per 1,000 and 23.4 professional, scientific, and technical services employees ranked in the top six among 14 southern states.

Foreign capital was a major impetus for growth in Alabama’s manufacturing sector.  Between 1977 and 1997, the number of foreign-owned enterprises jumped from about 100 to over 600 and employed almost 11 percent of the state’s manufacturing workers.

The State of the South report cautions that, while Alabama has made progress in improving its business mix, it must create more new economy enterprises if the pace of job growth is to accelerate.  And Alabama, like all southern states, must connect its lagging, mostly rural, areas to economic activity, with the goal of pulling all its people into the skilled labor force.

[The State of the South 2000 is available at http://www.mdcinc.org.]

Alabama’s Digital Divide

An August 2000 survey found digital inclusion increasing across states and the gap between the highest and lowest states narrowing.  Almost 770,000 (44.2 percent) of Alabama households owned computers in August 2000, up from about 580,000 households (34.3 percent) in December 1998.  According to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), Alabama households with Internet access at home increased from 365,000 (21.6 percent) in 1998 to about 618,000 (35.5 percent) in 2000.  For the nation as a whole, 51 percent of all households owned computers in 2000, while 41.5 percent had Internet access.  Alabama ranked forty-fourth among the 50 states on computer ownership and forty-third on home Internet access.

Carolyn Trent

Citizens also give significantly higher priority to funding benefits for poor people and to funding environmental protection efforts than they did two decades ago.  The popularity of benefits for poor people rose 16 percent during the twenty-year period, which was marked in the last five years by major welfare reform that removed thousands of Alabamians from the welfare rolls.  Since a separate question found that 51.2 percent of respondents to the recent survey also believe there are fewer undeserving people on welfare than there were ten years ago, the higher priority given to benefits for poor people may result from a perception that the people remaining on welfare are those who truly need and deserve help.

There was a 13 percent increase in support for environmental protection.  According to UA professor and specialist in environmental studies, Ed Passerini, greater support for environmental protection may be tied, at least in part, to the passage of the Forever Wild Act and significant purchases of land for conservation throughout Alabama.  State government functions that lost priority during the last 20 years were the judicial system, including prisons (down 16 percent), support for mental health centers and mental hospitals (down 16 percent) and support for highways and roads (down 13 percent).

Results from the recent study do not seem to be directly attributable to personal self-interest.  Support for elementary and secondary schools ranked first, but only 33 percent of respondents had school-aged children attending school in Alabama.  Support for programs for older people ranked second; yet only 21 percent of those responding had someone sixty-five years old or older in their household.  Benefits for poor people ranked third, but fewer than 18.2 percent of the persons who responded had ever received either food stamps or welfare benefits.

Support for K-12 education outranked support for colleges and universities in both the 1980 and 2000 studies.  Similarly, public support for K-12 education has grown compared with support for higher education in the twenty-year period.  Citizens thought it appropriate to allocate 55 percent of the total education budget to elementary and secondary schools in 1980 and 60 percent of the education budget to K-12 in 2000.

Comparison of the 1980 and 2000 studies shows remarkable consistency with a few noteworthy changes in Alabamians’ preferences for how their tax dollars should be distributed.  The six highest rated programs in 1980 were also the six highest rated programs in 2000.  Among these, elementary and secondary schools, benefits for poor people, and support for colleges and universities received higher priority in 2000.  Highways and roads, mental health centers and mental hospitals, and benefits for older people, received lower priority in 2000 than they did in 1980.

Results of the recent study are from a telephone survey of a probability sample of 467 adult Alabamians completed in the late summer of 2000.  Respondents were asked how they would allocate a hypothetical $100 of Alabama tax funds among ten different programs/services that the state currently funds.  They were told they could allocate zero dollars or as much as the full $100 to any program or service.  They were also told that they could divide the $100 among the ten programs in any way that they thought appropriate.  The accompanying table shows the average amount allocated to each program, its rank among the ten programs presented for both the current study and for the one conducted 20 years ago, and the percentage change in the dollar amounts allocated.

The 2000 study is a partial replication of a study published by Alabama Business in 1980.  The earlier study, a mailed survey of 1,015 Alabamians, also asked respondents to allocate a hypothetical $100 of tax funds among state programs and services.

The budget allocation methodology used in the two studies has several limitations, which should be considered as results are interpreted.  First, the ten program areas presented to respondents do not represent all current or potential uses of state revenues.  Public health, for example, is omitted.  Had it or another use of state dollars been included, a different set of budget priorities might have emerged.  Second, this approach assumes a “fixed pot” of state dollars.  Since some of Alabama’s programs are supported by special earmarked taxes, in the real world these ten programs do not all directly compete against each other in the annual budget process.  Finally, it is unlikely that respondents had accurate knowledge of the relative costs of state-supported programs and services.  The results are best viewed as indicative of priorities rather than as well-informed judgments about exactly how state dollars should be allocated.

Lucinda Lee Roff, David L. Klemmack, Debra M. McCallum, Michael B. Conaway 

Alabama’s transition from a predominantly rural, agrarian state in 1900 into a largely urban one, dependent on nonagricultural jobs, has defined the patterns of change seen across the 20th century.   In 1900 just 216,714 Alabamians lived in urban areas and more than seven out of eight residents were in rural settings.  Urban areas were defined in 1900 as incorporated places of 2,500 or more, plus areas classified as urban under special rules relating to population size and density.  After a slight definitional change in 1950, Alabama’s urban population reached 43.8 percent of the total.  By 1990 over 60 percent of the state’s residents lived in urban areas.  Although urban/rural numbers for 2000 have not been released, the share of Alabama’s urban population is expected to have continued to increaseVisit the table of Population of Alabama Counties, 1900-2000

While much of the state’s land area remains rural, many rural economies have withered as people have left in search of economic opportunity.  Several of today’s urban counties, including Jefferson, Montgomery, Mobile, Madison, and Tuscaloosa, have ranked in the state’s ten most populous from 1900 through 2000.  However, two of Alabama’s ten most populous counties in 1900, Henry and Lowndes, have remained predominantly rural.  Those counties have also witnessed the exodus of over half of their residents during the century.  Other counties, all predominantly rural, that also saw their populations reduced to less than half the 1900 number by 2000 include Bullock, Greene, Perry, Sumter, and Wilcox.  Thirty of Alabama’s 67 counties more than doubled in population during the 20th century.  Only two, Covington and Marion, are not either in or adjacent to a metropolitan area county.  Just two metro area counties, Lawrence and Russell, did not double in population during the last 100 years.

Looking back across the 20th century, seven Alabama counties grew in every decade.  They were Baldwin, Madison, Marshall, Mobile, Morgan, Shelby, and Tuscaloosa.  Another nine counties missed just one decade of growth.  And no counties saw their population drop in every decade.  During the last decade, twelve counties experienced losses ranging from a 0.6 percent decline in Choctaw to 8.5 percent in Sumter.

In 2000 Alabama remains a state of few large cities and many small cities and towns.  Identifying the state’s 67 counties by the size of the largest city or town in 2000 reveals just eleven counties with cities of 25,000 or more residents.  All these counties saw overall population gains across the 20th century.  Of the 20 counties with a largest city or town with 10,000 to 25,000 people, 18 saw population increases for 1900 to 2000.  And 11 of 13 counties with the largest city housing 5,000 to 10,000 experienced population growth during the century.  The largest city or town in 23 of Alabama’s counties had fewer than 5,000 residents in 2000.  Just nine of these counties gained population across the 100 years.  However, trends may be changing as nine counties in the small city category that failed to post an overall gain between 1900 and 2000 showed a population increase during the decade of the 1990s.

The racial composition of Alabama’s population has changed throughout the 20th century.  Although population growth and change has been affected by the age structure and fertility characteristics of white, black, and other residents, interstate migration has been the major factor.  Historically, population losses due to out-migration or relatively weak net migration gains have accounted for Alabama’s below average population growth rate.  In only two of the last 10 decades have more people moved into Alabama than moved out.  From 1970 to 1980, the state added 115,014 residents due to migration (both international and from other states).  The influx during the 1970s was entirely of white residents, however, as nonwhites continued to leave the state.  Only in the decade of the 1990s did both groups show substantial increases from net migration.  Alabama gained a total of 210,267 more residents than it lost due to migration between 1990 and 2000.  This includes a gain of approximately 89,306 white residents and 120,961 nonwhite residents, assuming all Alabamians who marked more than one race on the 2000 census are included in nonwhite.

At the beginning of the 20th century, 54.7 percent of Alabama’s residents were white.  This share steadily increased to 73.6 percent in 1970 and peaked at 73.8 percent in 1980.  From 1990 to 2000, however, the aging of Alabama’s white population relative to its nonwhite residents, coupled with a larger net in-migration of nonwhites, resulted in much stronger growth in the nonwhite population.  In 2000 Alabama was 71.1 percent white and 26.0 percent black.  Members of other racial groups have never had substantial numbers in Alabama.  From fewer than 250 in 1900 and just over 2,500 in 1950, residents who identified themselves as neither white nor black increased to 84,183 in 2000.  This is less than two percent of the population.  Another 44,179 Alabamians selected two or more races on the 2000 census.

As Alabama begins to move through the 21st century, economic development will strongly influence the location of population growth while migration will help determine racial and ethnic trends.  Gains throughout the 1900s have been concentrated in the state’s urban and adjoining suburban counties, and in rural counties that either are becoming an extension of suburbia or have developed their own economic strengths and identities.  In Alabama, as in much of the nation, population declines in mostly rural high-minority counties reflect their economic disadvantage.  Changing the population trends of the 20th century in the 21st century will depend on improving economic opportunity and quality of life in distressed areas of the state.

Carolyn Trent

The Alabama housing market took a hit in April, according to statistics released by the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center at The University of Alabama.

Total homes sold declined 6.76 percent from March’s 3,202 to 2,987. Montgomery had the biggest decline in number of homes sold with a loss of 40 sales (304 homes sold in April from 344 in March), while Phenix City saw the largest percentage decline with a 40.8 percent loss (42 homes sold in April from 71 in March).

Average selling price slipped 8.17 percent to $107,797 from $117,383. Total homes listed inched up 2.5 percent to 27,005 from 26,334. For all intents and purposes, average days on market held steady with a loss of only one day to 154 from 155.

“April’s decline was expected,” said Dr. Leonard Zumpano, director of the Center. “Eroding employment figures and consumer confidence together with rising mortgage rates were expected to ripple through the housing sector and will probably continue to do so in the short term.

“It is important to keep in mind, however, that when compared to April 2000, April 2001’s housing numbers are notably resilient. Total homes sold are actually up 6.79 percent from 2,797, while average selling price is down 6.84 percent from $115,707. Year to date, 2001 total homes sold is up 3.37 percent to 10,635 from 10,288 in 2000, while average selling price is up 2.72 percent to $115,789 from $112,722.”

The national housing market slowed as well. According to the National Association of Realtors®, April sales of existing single-family homes slipped 4.2 percent to 5.2 million from 5.43 million. Average selling price was up only 1 percent to $181,300 from $179,500.

April’s sales activity was still 4.4 percent above last year’s pace of 4.98 million, while average selling price is up 4.6 percent from $173,300 in April last year.

Zumpano noted the Commerce Department in April changed the method it uses to calculate new home sales.

“The new system no longer takes into account new homes under construction before permits were issued. This method caused a larger than normal discrepancy between National Association of Realtors’® numbers and the Commerce Department’s. For consistency, The Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center has used NAR’s housing numbers for comparison and analysis of the Alabama housing market with the national housing market.

“While the numbers do point to a slowing housing market, the state and national figures still look healthy when compared to last year,” Zumpano said. “It is also important to keep in mind that March set the second-highest home sales pace on record, so a decline from March could be expected in nearly any market conditions, especially with rising unemployment and eroding consumer confidence.

“Total non-farm employment shed 223,000 jobs in April, while the consumer confidence index dropped to 109.2 from 116.9. On a good note, the Consumer Conference Board reported on May 29 that the Consumer Confidence Index snapped back to 115.5 in May, which could signal that consumers are not ready to reign in their spending just yet. There is still a significant amount of strength remaining in the market, but if unemployment continues to rise, consumer confidence could falter, and further declines could be seen.”

The University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, founded in 1919, is home to the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center. The Center works with the Alabama Association of REALTORS, the Alabama Real Estate Commission and the research division of the National Association of REALTORS to compile a state housing affordability index each quarter.