Author: hfoy

UA Economists Forecast Moderate Growth for Alabama in 2025

  • February 19th, 2025

TUSCALOOSA — Alabama’s economy will likely continue to grow in 2025, with real output at a rate of 2.3 % say economists at The University of Alabama. In the annual report from UA’s Center for Business and Economics Research, economists temper optimism with caution.

“The optimistic forecast is driven by an expectation of continued consumer spending, reduced inflation, and supportive fiscal policy,” said Dr. Kilungu Nzaku, an associate research economist at CBER. “However, current and ongoing events on trade have injected some uncertainty into the economy. If unchanged, the announced and proposed tariffs could usurp gains made in curtailing inflation and slow economic growth.”

CBER’s economists expect the most robust gains in sectors that heavily depend on consumer spending such as accommodation and food services; real estate, rentals and leasing; arts, entertainment and recreation; retail trade; and educational and health services. Sectors with a less favorable economic and employment outlook include mining and natural resources, textile mills, and industries related to printing.

CBER’s newly released Alabama Economic Outlook, unveiled at the 2025 Alabama Economic Outlook Conference in January, includes 2025 economic forecast for the nation, Alabama and the metro areas, as well as an overview of 2024 economic performance. The full report is available on the center’s website.

This year’s outlook features an article from demographer Dr. Nyesha Black detailing Alabama’s slowing population growth. Demographic analysis shows that the number of deaths now exceed births in Alabama for the first time since CBER began tracking vital statistics data in 1930. However, relocation to the state has allowed the population to continue growing.

CBER also previewed a new county economic impact calculator, developed by CBER’s economists, which will allow economic development practitioners to estimate the economic impact of new investment projects for all 67 counties in Alabama. The economic impact calculator will be available to the public in an online format later this year.

Part of the Culverhouse College of Business, UA’s Center for Business and Economic Research has produced forecasts of economic activity in Alabama since 1980. These forecasts cover Alabama’s gross domestic product, employment and income by industry group and are published in the annual Alabama Economic Outlook. Forecast updates are ran quarterly. The center incorporates data from the last 30 years, including cycles and recoveries captured over the years, into its statistical and economic models.

 

Source

Kilungu Nzaku, associate research economist of the UA Center for Business and Economic Research, knzaku@.ua.edu

The University of Alabama, part of The University of Alabama System, is the state’s flagship university. UA shapes a better world through its teaching, research and service. With a global reputation for excellence, UA provides an inclusive, forward-thinking environment and nearly 200 degree programs on a beautiful, student-centered campus. A leader in cutting-edge research, UA advances discovery, creative inquiry and knowledge through more than 30 research centers. As the state’s largest higher education institution, UA drives economic growth in Alabama and beyond.

UA Economists: Alabama’s Economic Growth Projected to Slow while Inflation Expected to Decrease

  • April 16th, 2024

Tuscaloosa, Ala – Alabama’s economic growth is projected to slow while inflation is expected to slightly decrease through 2024, according to researchers at The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER).

The state’s economy continued to grow in 2023, without being affected by stubborn inflation, monetary policy rate hikes, lingering labor shortages, and the continued effects of the Ukraine-Russian war, according to CBER.

Alabama’s economic output for 2024 is projected to increase 1.2%, compared to a projected increase of 1.4% for the United States. The projection comes after the state’s economic output grew by 1.9% in 2023, due to high consumer spending and a surge in exports. Nationally, the economic output grew by 2.4% in 2023, driven by pent-up demand and accumulated savings from the pandemic era.

“Most likely Alabama’s growth for 2023 will be revised upwards to slightly over 2.0%,” said Ahmad Ijaz, CBER’s executive director and director of economic forecasting.

Businesses and consumers spent almost $3 trillion in savings during the pandemic, which aided in avoiding a recession and sustain the economy . Economists estimate that approximately $1.0 trillion in accumulated savings are still remaining, and these funds could continue to keep both businesses and consumers buoyed despite high interest rates.

“Strong consumer spending in 2022 and 2023 was driven primarily by pent-up demand and accumulating savings built up during the pandemic era,” Ijaz said.

The Center for Business and Economic Research has produced forecasts of economic activity in Alabama since 1980. The center incorporates data from the last 30 years, including cycles and recoveries captured over the years, into its statistical and economic models. These forecasts cover Alabama’s gross domestic product, employment, and income by industry group and are published in the annual Alabama Economic Outlook, which includes and annual analysis into the national and state economy, including examinations of metro areas in Alabama. Forecast updates are provided quarterly. The 2024 Alabama Economic Outlook, available for free on the center’s website, reports consumer spending should increase by 1.9 percent in 2024 and 1.5% percent in 2025, which could be damped by high levels of consumer debt going forward.

“Alabama’s economy is still growing,” said Ijaz, “and will continue to do so despite recession fears triggered by higher interests rates.”

This year’s outlook includes the effects of population aging on labor force participation and whether Alabama really does have a labor shortage. The feature article highlights the need for economic stakeholders to incorporate a demographic perspective to improve the status of labor force participation in Alabama.

“There are clear patterns of population aging in Alabama that also shape the supply of the labor market,” said Dr. Nyesha Black, the director of demographics at CBER. “There are also significant shifts in the economic behaviors of younger male workers that are exerting a negative effect on Alabama’s overall labor force participation rate. In fact, Alabama’s labor force participation rates would be worse if it were not for the increased labor market engagement of women and workers who are 55 years and older.”

Medical manufacturer to shutter Alabama plant after receiving millions in incentives

  • November 27th, 2023

Baxter Healthcare Corp. accepted about $3.3 million in state and local government incentives tied to the expansion of its Alabama plant. In exchange, the company agreed to hire and keep at least 200 employees through last year.

This month, with the decade-long deal done, the company is closing the facility in Opelika and laying off 459 employees. So was this a good deal for Alabama? For Opelika?

“No question about it. It’s a huge capital investment,” Gary Fuller, Opelika’s mayor, told AL.com on Wednesday, emphasizing that the city’s incentives were performance-based. “It was an excellent arrangement for us.”

The small city paid Baxter $1.3 million in cash incentives over the last eight years, in addition to providing other tax breaks, according to city records obtained by AL.com.

The medical device manufacturer also received $2 million from the state, said Stefania Jones, spokeswoman for the Alabama Department of Commerce.

Representatives for the Commerce Department didn’t respond to specific questions about the impact of the incentives given the closure, though Jones said that Alabama and Baxter “fulfilled their obligations in the agreement.”

Fuller pointed to two ways the city directly benefited from Baxter’s presence: education-related taxes, which he said supported Opelika city schools, and the city’s occupational license fee, for which the city collects 1.5% of payroll.

Baxter was eligible for more than $5 million in total cash incentives through its decade-long agreement with Alabama, Opelika and Opelika Industrial Authority, per a copy of the original 2014 agreement. In exchange, Baxter invested $270 million into expanding the facility that’s operated since the early 2000s, doubled the existing space to 400,000 square feet and doubled its workforce to 350 employees.

As of Nov. 30, Baxter is laying off hundreds more employees than it was incentivized to hire. That’s per a WARN notice reported Sept. 27, which major employers are legally required to file to notify the state that it plans to cut a lot of jobs. The company reported to Opelika that it employed 564 full-time workers at the Alabama plant, as of June 2022, per a company memo obtained by AL.com.

Sam Addy, a senior research economist who has served on committees reviewing the state’s incentive program, said that the Departments of Revenue and Commerce examine what a company like Baxter presents early on while making incentive agreements.

“They get [incentives] for when they are meeting the terms on an annual basis, so we don’t lose out,” he said. “The main risk is, do they get successful enough to stay?”

Greg LeRoy, executive director and founder of Good Jobs First – a watchdog group for state and local economic development subsidies – said Alabama and Opelika could’ve made a stronger deal. The agreement could’ve required a longer maintenance period than the incentives and tax credit period, he said.

“Business basics drive these decisions, not incentives. In this case, obviously, the incentives apparently don’t matter, or marginally, because even if the company had left earlier they wouldn’t have had to pay back very much and still got a lot of benefits.”

The bigger question, he said, is: “Why isn’t Opelika sticky enough for this company to stay?”

Addy, who is also associate dean for economic development outreach at the University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Business’ Center for Business and Economic Research, noted that Baxter progressed further than some other companies have before closing. He pointed to the state’s “pay-as-you-go” incentive program as why it’s successful, as opposed to handing over the incentives up front.

“As a whole program, it’s really good. The ROI on it is very high,” he said. “But you will always find single firms that don’t achieve success as we wanted.”

Why Baxter’s plant is shutting down

The company announced the closure of its plant in July, blaming the closure on rising costs of production and a competitive market. The facility in Opelika’s Fox Run Business Park produces dialyzers used in the treatment of advanced kidney disease.

After layoffs, Baxter will shut down all operations of the plant during the first half of next year, a company spokesperson said in an emailed statement to AL.com. The spokesperson declined to comment on the incentives. In the meantime, the company said it’s offering employees severance packages and assistance programs as well as connecting employees with other jobs within the company.

“This decision was made with considerable thought for our employees, the Opelika community and our patients and customers, and only after exploring other options,” the spokesperson said. “Based on the strength of the Opelika community and its talented workforce, we are exploring possible alternative uses for our facility in the future, but don’t have anything specific to share at this time.”

Baxter International Inc. also pointed to the global competition of the dialyzer market in its quarterly report posted July 27, for the three-month period ending June 30. “We believe that there is more than adequate availability of dialyzers in the United States and globally,” the company said in the financial report.

It’s unclear what will happen to the plant. Fuller said he’s asked corporate leaders at Baxter about that, noting that the plant’s design is specific to medical or pharmaceutical production.

“The company has been pretty close-mouthed of what their intentions were with the facility,” he said. “That’s a lot of money sitting there on that piece of property.”

In the meantime, Fuller said he hopes to recruit more companies to the city – including one that could be interested in taking over the facility. The city’s current top employers include the hospital East Alabama Medical Center, auto parts manufacturer Mando America Corp., vitamin producer Pharmavite, meat processor Golden State Foods and bottling plant Niagara Bottling.

Opelika is working with Southern Union State Community College, Baxter, Alabama Industrial Development Training – the state’s workforce agency – and local employers to host several job fairs for the affected employees, Fuller said.

“Our number one concern is those employees and helping them get situated,” he said. “We’ve got industry in Opelika that definitely needs additional folks, and finding workforce has been a tremendous challenge for us.”

When the original Gambro Renal Products plant first opened in the early 2000s, it was the largest capital investment in Lee County at the time, Fuller said. Baxter Healthcare’s parent company, Baxter International Inc., based in Deerfield, Illinois, acquired Gambro in 2013 and took over the Opelika plant.

The company has recently landed itself more cash in a $4.25 billion sale of its spun-off biopharma solutions business to two private equity firms. The company has two other plants that continue to produce dialyzers in other states. For now, only Baxter’s Alabama facility is closing, per the company.

LeRoy, who previously worked at a grassroots organization to prevent plant closings, said that the closure of the Baxter facility doesn’t make sense to him, pointing to the facility’s recent upgrade and expansion.

“Why can’t they make it there? From the outside, it’s like, what’s going on here? I would love to know the backstory,” he said. “The mysterious press release about global forces, it’s just mumbo jumbo until you unpack it.”

Baxter’s government incentive deal

In addition to cash incentives, Baxter also qualified for millions of dollars in state and local tax breaks from Alabama and Opelika. Lee County didn’t have any agreement with Baxter, per county administrator Holly Leverette.

Alabama also pledged to help with recruitment and training through the state’s workforce agency as well as cover some road improvement costs, provide fast-track permits and help the company qualify for income tax credits and tax exemptions tied to its electricity use. The State Industrial Development Authority also offered to pay $150,000 of the company’s expenses, but a representative said there was no record of that payment to Baxter.

Over the past nine years, Opelika has paid almost all of its incentives that it had originally pledged to Baxter, including milestones in its facility’s expansion, reimbursements for purchases from local vendors, cash tied to hiring goals, tax rebates, and relocation stipends to Baxter managers who moved to Opelika, according to payment records between the city and Baxter.

The city’s most recent check to Baxter was on Sept. 29: a $110,736.80 tax rebate for the prior tax year, according to a review of receipts. The most recent payment from the city tied to Baxter’s employee count came in August 2022, for $70,000.

The Opelika Industrial Development Authority pledged more grants for training opportunities, and entered a ground lease with Baxter for the 10.35 acres of land it needed for its facility’s expansion.

“It bothers me to think of someone being without a job during the holidays,” Fuller said. “I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that Baxter will make us all smile here in a few months with something new and exciting for their Opelika facility.”

By 

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State Business Leaders Still Wary of U.S. Economy

  • October 18th, 2023

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – State business leaders continue to be concerned about the national economy, dampening their financial outlook, according to the latest quarterly survey by The University of Alabama.

The UA Center for Business and Economic Research’s latest Alabama Business Confidence Index, taken in early September, decreased slightly, indicating expectations for a mild drop-off from last quarter’s economic performance.

The drop in confidence comes after the last survey found signs state business were reversing their negative outlook.

“The outlook for the U.S. economy remained strongly contractionary,” said Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER. “This index has been negative for the past eight quarters and the lowest component index for the past nine quarters, indicating sustained expectations for worse national economic conditions.”

The ABCI for the fourth quarter of 2023 is 48.2, which is slightly below the third quarter’s neutral index but still a better outlook than the post-pandemic low of 45.7 in the first quarter of this year. An index over 50 indicates an expansionary forecast compared to the previous quarter, and the closer the number is to 100, the more confident the forecast.

ABCI is gathered from a broad group of business executives across the state with six key indicators and a composite index. The statewide and national forecasts, along with industry-specific components like sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures comprise the six indexes that combine to make the ABCI total.

Lingering concern over a possible economic recession could be why business leaders remain negative on the national economy. The rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve may finally start to slow the economy down now that business and personal savings built up during the pandemic are depleted, said Ahmad Ijaz, CBER executive director.

“Alabama’s economy is still doing relatively well, one reason businesses are more optimistic about the state’s economy than they are about the national economy,” he said.

CBER forecasts the state’s economy to grow 1.5% this year, about the same as in 2022 with both employment and state tax collections growing more slowly than last year.

This quarter, five of the nine industry groupings had an index above 50 showing a positive outlook for their own industry’s sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures. The industry grouping with the highest and largest increase in confidence includes panelists in transportation, information and utilities.

Only three industries are forecasting a decrease in their sales compared to the previous quarter: wholesale trade, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Of the five metro areas in the state tracked in the survey, business leaders in Montgomery and Tuscaloosa have mildly positive outlooks for their local economies while the rest had negative outlooks.

The breakdown of all the industry forecasts by sector can be seen in the statewide ABCI report on CBER’s website.


The University of Alabama, part of The University of Alabama System, is the state’s flagship university. UA shapes a better world through its teaching, research and service. With a global reputation for excellence, UA provides an inclusive, forward-thinking environment and nearly 200 degree programs on a beautiful, student-centered campus. A leader in cutting-edge research, UA advances discovery, creative inquiry and knowledge through more than 30 research centers. As the state’s largest higher education institution, UA drives economic growth in Alabama and beyond.

Contact

Adam Jones, UA Strategic Communications, 205-348-4328, adam.jones@ua.edu

Source

Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst for CBER, scrobichaux@cba.ua.edu

 

Business Just Might be Getting Better, Executives Say

  • July 26th, 2023

By Business Alabama Staff

The state’s business leaders expect the economy to do no worse than it has been and maybe even improve, according to the quarterly Alabama Business Confidence Index.

The survey is conducted by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama.

“For the first time since the second quarter of 2022, five of the six component indexes that go into the overall ABCI reflect business leaders are neutral or mildly positive,” the University said in announcing the results. “These offer insight into the near-term state economy and forecasts for panelists’ own business and industry. The only negative index is the U.S. economic outlook, a sour national expectation they’ve reported consistently for nearly two years.”

Susannah Robichaux, socioeconomic analyst at CBER, said, “Over 50% of panelists are forecasting worse conditions in the national economy next quarter compared to the second quarter, and while we can’t say exactly why, ‘uncertainty’ is a useful umbrella to catch a lot of the concerns those business leaders could have.”

To gather the results, the CBER surveys executives around the state, asking about topics such as sales, profits, hiring and capital expenditures and analyzing results by region and by industry.

Those surveyed were most positive about the chance for increased sales this quarter and they expect to hire more workers, the CBER reported, with six of the nine industry groups showing a positive outlook. “Only two industries had a positive outlook in the first quarter of the year and four last quarter,” the UA statement said.

By region, Huntsville had the most positive expectations and Mobile the least.

“Earlier in the year, most businesses were anticipating a recession, but now there is a good chance the Federal Reserve might be able to pull a soft landing of slower growth without becoming a full-blown recession,” said Ahmad Ijaz, CBER executive director and director of economic forecasting. “With the rate of inflation slowing down, we may be towards the end of Fed rate hikes, which lowers the cost of doing business for most firms. That makes these firms a bit more optimistic about the economy going forward.”

Complete results are available here.

 

© Copyright 2020 Business Alabama Magazine, All Rights Reserved.

Entrepreneurship in Alabama at All-Time High

  • May 22nd, 2023

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Small business entrepreneurship is healthy in Alabama, according to an analysis of websites registered with a popular web hosting platform. 

To better understand the nuances of Alabama’s entrepreneurial ecosystem, Dr. Nyesha Black, director of demographics for The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research, partnered with GoDaddy’s Venture Forward research initiative to analyze new data from a recent study and found entrepreneurship is at an all-time high in Alabama. 

In Alabama, Venture Forward estimates that there are over 150,000 online ventures — businesses with GoDaddy-registered domains and active websites. Most of the ventures are microbusinesses with fewer than 10 employees. 

GoDaddy is an internet domain registration and web hosting company, and Venture Forward quantifies the economic impact made by entrepreneurs by providing insight into their needs, demographics, challenges and behaviors. 

“Technology reduces the barrier of entry into entrepreneurship in the digital space,” Black said. “It became increasingly important for me to quantify the impact these entrepreneurs have on Alabama’s communities and economy. Through our partnership with Venture Forward by GoDaddy, I hope to attract the attention of local decision-makers willing to act and support these entrepreneurs and further the case to increase broadband access and speed across the state.” 

Since the onset of COVID-19, new businesses started at an increased rate across the country. Venture Forward research finds the same phenomenon in Alabama. Key findings from the study include:  

  • About one out of 10 microbusinesses want to grow into a corporation with a large employee base or a billion-dollar-valued company.  
  • Gen Z and Millennial entrepreneurship rates nearly doubled when compared to pre-pandemic rates from 23% at the start of 2020 to 43% in 2023.  
  • Among this new class of entrepreneurs in Alabama, Black entrepreneurs lead the charge as a fast-growing demographic across the state, currently at 30% of all Alabama online microbusinesses as of January 2023. 
  • When asked about the rationale behind launching their business, Alabama respondents’ top three answers were to support a cause or hobby, be their own boss, and make extra money. 

“Studying Alabama’s online microbusiness we were able to uncover new insights about these local entrepreneurs,” said Alexandra Rosen, senior director of Venture Forward. “The strong growth in numbers statewide, including the increasing diversity of business owners and the unique agility to launch an online venture with less than $5,000, stood out when analyzing Alabama’s economy.” 

To learn more about Venture Forward’s partnership with The University of Alabama and Dr. Black and to view the full results of the Alabama survey, please visit the Venture Forward site. 

Source

Dr. Nyesha Black, Center for Business and Economic Research, ncblack@culverhouse.ua.edu

Contact

Adam Jones, UA communications, 205-348-4328, adam.jones@ua.edu

The University of Alabama, part of The University of Alabama System, is the state’s flagship university. UA shapes a better world through its teaching, research and service. With a global reputation for excellence, UA provides an inclusive, forward-thinking environment and nearly 200 degree programs on a beautiful, student-centered campus. A leader in cutting-edge research, UA advances discovery, creative inquiry and knowledge through more than 30 research centers. As the state’s largest higher education institution, UA drives economic growth in Alabama and beyond.

CBER’s Socioeconomic Analyst has been Elected to SDC Steering Committee

  • March 22nd, 2023

We are excited to announce that CBER’s Socioeconomic Analyst, Susannah Robichaux, has been elected to the State Data Center (SDC) Steering Committee!

The SDC program is one of the Census Bureau’s longest and most successful partnerships. This partnership between the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the island areas, and the Census Bureau was created in 1978 to make data available locally to the public through a network of state agencies, universities, libraries, and regional and local governments. CBER has been the lead agency for the Alabama State Data Center (ASDC) since its inception in 1978.

The SDC Steering Committee consists of nine members, elected to represent the 56 states and territories in the State Data Center Program. These members advise the Census Bureau on the administration of the SDC Program; assist the Census Bureau with its surveys and programs; work with the Census Bureau to plan and conduct the Annual Training Conference; and help to improve the flow of information and ideas among member agencies and between member agencies and the Census Bureau.

Congratulations, Susannah!

Culverhouse Associate Dean Appointed to Branch of Atlanta Federal Board

  • March 15th, 2023

Dr. Samuel Addy, associate dean for economic development outreach in the Culverhouse College of Business and senior research economist for the Center for Business and Economic Researchwas appointed to fill out the remaining year of term on the board of directors of the Birmingham Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

“A key focus of our outreach efforts within the Culverhouse College of Business are those that make a positive impact on society and the greater community, and many of those efforts are led by Dr. Addy,” said Culverhouse Dean Kay Palan. “Dr. Addy’s appointment to the board is reflective of the important work he does here, and I look forward to the results of his contributions.”

Going forward, Addy will be eligible for two, three-year appointments on the seven-member Birmingham board.

“This is a win-win situation for the College of Culverhouse and UA,” Addy said. “This role will allow the opportunity to enhance and expand the positive impact our economic outreach at UA has on the state and beyond.”

The Federal Reserve System is overseen by a national Board of Governors who work with the 12 Federal Reserve Banks across the country that have a board of directors, and most have branch banks with individual boards of directors.

Directors provide a link between the system and the public, and their insights help to inform national monetary policy. In addition, directors perform an important corporate governance function for their respective reserve banks. They are expected to contribute to the Fed’s understanding of the economic conditions of their district and the effect of those conditions on the economy. Directors should be familiar with the economic and business community of their region.

Addy has worked with the Atlanta Fed and its Birmingham branch over the years, providing economic data and forecasting as well as information on workforce and business surveys from CBER.

The Atlanta bank’s focus on rural economic development within the six Southeastern states in its district will be an area Addy hopes to learn from and contribute to by relying on UA’s deep ties to the area.

“The breadth of what we do here at UA regarding economic development, particularly in rural areas, is highly visible, and I believe that is a big reason why I was appointed,” he said.

Addy has served in his current roles since 2015, but was previously associate dean for research and outreach from 2011 through 2015, the executive director of the Center for Business and Economic Research from 2007 to 2015, and has held various other leadership roles at the university since 1998.

He is a member of the Alabama Economics Club, University Conflict of Interest Committee at the University of Alabama, International Association for Energy Economists and the American Economic Association.

He earned his doctorate in mineral economics from Pennsylvania State University, his master’s degree in mineral engineering from the University of Minnesota, and a bachelor’s degree in metallurgical engineering from the University of Science and Technology in Kumasi, Ghana.

Contact

Adam Jones, UA strategic communications, 205-348-4328, adam.jones@ua.edu

The University of Alabama, part of The University of Alabama System, is the state’s flagship university. UA shapes a better world through its teaching, research and service. With a global reputation for excellence, UA provides an inclusive, forward-thinking environment and nearly 200 degree programs on a beautiful, student-centered campus. A leader in cutting-edge research, UA advances discovery, creative inquiry and knowledge through more than 30 research centers. As the state’s largest higher education institution, UA drives economic growth in Alabama and beyond.