Year: 2019

Census Shows One County in Alabama Without Double-Digit Poverty; State’s Poverty Grows

  • August 20th, 2019

Shelby County, Alabama’s fastest growing county, can now add another superlative to its bragging list: In the poverty estimates released Monday by the Census Bureau for the year 2002, Shelby County is the only county in Alabama that doesn’t have double-digit poverty rates, according to the State Data Center at The University of Alabama.

“The Census Bureau estimates an overall poverty rate in Shelby County of about 6.5 percent in 2002,” said Annette Watters, manager of the state data center. “Shelby County’s poverty rate has not moved up or down much since the late 1990s.”

Alabama’s counties with the highest poverty rates continue to be primarily in Black Belt counties with small populations, Watters said. Perry, Wilcox and Bullock counties have poverty rates over 30 percent. That means, Watters said, that nearly one in three persons in each of those counties is living below the poverty line. Fourteen other counties have poverty rates above 20 percent.

The numbers released by the Census Bureau are estimates, and each county is assigned a range. For example, the percent of Perry County’s population living in poverty could be as low as 24.7 percent or as high as 39.9 percent, Watters said. The Census Bureau uses information from the current population survey, the food stamp program, summary data from federal income tax returns, and data from the 2000 census to derive the estimates.

“A low poverty rate doesn’t reveal some important information about poverty in a county,” Watters said. “A densely settled county can have a poverty rate that is not alarmingly high, yet that county can have a great many poor people. For example, Jefferson County’s poverty rate is 13.7 percent. But because Jefferson County has such a big population, that 13.7 percent represents 87,670 people—there are more poor people in Jefferson County alone than in all the counties of the Black Belt put together.”

Watters said Alabama’s overall poverty rate (15.4 percent) is higher than the national average (12.1 percent).

Other states with high poverty rates also tend to be in the South, with the exception of New Mexico, whose poverty rate is 18.0 percent. Louisiana, Mississippi and West Virginia have poverty rates higher than Alabama’s. Texas and Arkansas have rates that are roughly similar.

The poorest group in Alabama is its children, according to Watters. More than one in five (21.6 percent) of all children between the ages of birth and 17 in Alabama live below the poverty line. In some counties, more than one out of every three children is living in poverty.

“The discouraging news is that there are more people in poverty in Alabama now than there were in 2000,” Watters said. “In 2000 the estimate was that 637,119 Alabamians were poor and the poverty rate was 14.6 percent. In 2002 the estimate was 679,856 and 15.4 percent.”
The State Data Center is part of the Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration’s Center for Business and Economic Research. The Center was created in 1930, and since that time it has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its base of socioeconomic information.

One-Third of State’s Counties See Population Growth, According to Census Estimates

  • August 20th, 2019
Just more than one-third of Alabama’s counties have experienced population growth since 2000, according to the latest estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and analyzed by the manager of the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama.

Center manager Annette Watters said the estimated figures, made public Thursday, indicate the state’s 24 growing counties are a mix of urban and rural counties.

“All of Alabama’s growth rate since 2000 has occurred in 24 of the 67 counties,” Watters said. “Since the turn of the century, other counties have had populations that neither grew nor declined, and the others have lost population.”

Shelby, Baldwin and Elmore Counties, have grown the fastest of any counties in Alabama since the turn of the century.

“Since 2000, Shelby County has added 22,384 people, a 15.6 percent growth rate,” Watters said. “Baldwin County has added 16,286, an 11.6 percent growth rate. These are the only two counties in the state with double-digit growth rates.” Elmore showed a 9.2 percent growth rate.

Although Shelby County is the fastest-growing county in Alabama, it does not make the list of the Top 100 Fastest Growing Counties in the country since 2000, Watters said. To make that list, Watters said, a county had to have a population of at least 10,000 and a minimum growth rate of 15.9 percent.

Jefferson County remains Alabama’s largest county, but it has lost 3,552 people since 2000, according to the figures. Much of the population loss is from the city of Birmingham, Watters said.

“Although Jefferson County is not growing, the Birmingham metropolitan area is,” Watters said. Four of the seven counties in the metro areas (Shelby, St. Clair, Blount, and Bibb) are among the top 10 in Alabama for growth rates, and a fifth, Chilton, ranks 11th.

“Three of the 24 growing counties in Alabama are in areas usually thought of as very rural,” Watters said. Cherokee, Cleburne and Randolph counties, sit one atop the other on the eastern border of the state. “Each of these three counties has gained a few hundred people over the last four years.”

It’s helpful to remember the distinction between growth rate rankings and total number of people added, Watters said.

“A small population county may have a large growth rate if it adds even a small number of people,” Watters said. “A large population county can add thousands of people and still have a lower growth rate.

“All counties have had births, deaths, and people moving in and out,” Watters said. “Sometimes the net effect is population growth; sometimes it is population loss; sometimes it’s a wash.”

Four of the 24 counties that have grown during the 21st century are part of the new concept of micropolitan area, Watters said. DeKalb County is the Fort Payne Micro Area; Marshall County is the Albertville Micro Area; Cullman County is the Cullman Micro Area; Coffee and Dale counties together are the Enterprise-Ozark Micro Area. “The new terminology of micropolitan area recognizes that the designated counties anchor a small, but important, local economy centered around a city that is sizeable, but not large enough to be considered a metropolitan area,” Watters said.

Alabama Counties that Have Added the Most Number of People Since 2000

County

1. Shelby
2. Baldwin
3. Madison
4. Elmore
5. Lee
6. St. Clair
7. Houston
8. Blount
9. Autauga
10. Limestone

Number Added

22,384
16,286
16,121
6,068
5,622
5,503
4,160
3,964
3,797
3,711

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates Division, Release date, April 14, 2005.


Alabama Counties with the Fastest Growth Rates

County

1. Shelby
2. Baldwin
3. Elmore
4. Autauga
5. St. Clair
6. Blount
7. Bibb
8. Madison
9. Limestone
10. Lee

Growth Rate (%)

15.6
11.6
9.2
8.7
8.5
7.8
7.2
5.8
5.7
4.9

  View larger map     Download high-resolution map

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates Division, Release date, April 14, 2005.


Alabama’s Largest Population Counties

County

1. Jefferson
2. Mobile
3. Madison
4. Montgomery
5. Tuscaloosa
6. Shelby
7. Baldwin
8. Lee
9. Morgan
10. Calhoun

2004 Population

658,495
400,526
293,072
222,559
167,104
165,677
156,701
120,714
113,211
112,425

County’s Metropolitan Status
Birmingham-Hoover
Mobile
Huntsville
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope
Auburn-Opelika
Decatur
Anniston-Oxford

  View larger map     Download high-resolution map

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates Division, Release date, April 14, 2005.

 

U.S. and Global Iron and Steel Industries

  • August 20th, 2019

Iron and Steel Industry Overview

The iron and steel industry is defined to include iron and steel mills; electrometallurgical ferroalloy product manufacturers; and iron, steel, and steel investment foundries (NAICS codes 33111 and 33151). Iron and steel mills comprise integrated producers and mini-mills. Integrated steel producers generally begin the process by reducing iron ore to molten pig iron in a blast furnace, although some buy slabs and coke on the open market to reduce costs. The pig iron is then combined with scrap in a basic oxygen furnace to make molten steel. Mini-mills convert scrap metal into molten steel in an electric arc (EAF) furnace. Output from either type of mill is solidified into semifinished shapes and rolled, drawn, cast, or extruded to make flat-rolled, structural, and tubular products. EAF producers have a cost advantage, leaving integrated producers to focus on higher quality, more complex products. Foundries make metal mold or die castings from molten metal which are then subject to further manufacturing, such as machining, assembling, and finishing.

Demand for steel is highly dependent on both global and national economies. Development of sophisticated technology has improved both product quality and worker productivity. Capital requirements are very high in the integrated mills and all mills are greatly affected by commodity prices. Environmental regulations are also a major focus and cost. Productivity improvements have greatly reduced labor demands, with some U.S. producers cutting the number of man-hours required to produce a ton of steel by 90 percent over the last 25 to 30 years.

The Global Steel Industry

China dominates the global steel industry, with 2006 estimated pig iron production of 380 million metric tons amounting to 44.3 percent of the worldwide total and 420 million metric tons of raw steel accounting for 35 percent of global production. The country’s capacity is seeing fast growth; pig iron production increased 15.2 percent from 2005 to 2006 and raw steel production rose 20.3 percent during the year. While Chinese steel consumption has grown rapidly, production has increased faster and in 2006 China moved from a net importer of steel to the world’s largest exporter. Chinese exports have continued to increase rapidly in the first half of 2007; net exports to the U.S. were almost double exports during the same period in 2006. The country’s heavy government ownership and subsidization and its effect on production have caused concern about overexpansion in global steel capacity, given the cyclical nature of the industry. And the rise in consumption is pushing up the price of raw materials used in steelmaking.

Japan was the second largest producer of both pig iron and raw steel in 2006, claiming close to 9.5 percent of each market. U.S. raw steel production of around 96 million metric tons of raw steel ranked third, while 39 million tons of pig iron placed the United States fourth. The United States accounted for 4.5 percent of world pig iron production and 8.0 percent of raw steel during 2006. While U.S. output of pig iron increased 5.6 percent from 2005 to 2006, raw steel production rose a meager 1.6 percent. Russia was also a major player in world steel, with the third highest pig iron and fourth highest raw steel output in 2006.

2006 marked the fifth straight year for output and demand growth in the global steel market. The strong world economy and infrastructure and other investment in developing countries is helping drive global demand. The American Institute for International Steel forecasts steel consumption growth of 5.2 percent in 2007, or 2.6 percent if China is excluded.

The Steel Industry in the United States

In 2006 about 59 companies in the United States with around 106 plants were capable of producing approximately 112 million metric tons of raw steel. Also, in 2006 eight companies produced pig iron at 18 integrated steel mills. About 1,100 ferrous foundries contributed to 2006 steel industry output valued at approximately $150 billion. Primary steel-manufacturing states in 2006 included Indiana with 24 percent of production, Ohio (16 percent), and Pennsylvania and Michigan, each with around 6 percent. Major users of U.S. steel were the construction industry (16 percent), and transportation (mainly automotive producers) with a 13 percent share. Warehouses and steel service centers received 22 percent of steel shipments, much of it for further processing by industries that manufacture products including iron and steel pipes and tubes, bars, shapes, powder, and wire from purchased steel.

The U.S. steel industry is seeing significant consolidation, restructuring, and new capital investment in the 21st century. The number of companies producing raw steel declined by 24 between 2003 and 2006 and the number of plant locations was cut in half. Integrated steel mill locations with blast furnaces producing pig iron fell from 33 in 2003 to 18 in 2006. International Steel Group, U.S. Steel, and Nucor are among companies that have expanded significantly by acquisition. Technological developments have helped labor productivity to more than triple since the early 1980s, with the average number of man-hours per finished ton dropping from 10.1 to about three in 2004; many plants are able to produce a ton of finished steel in less than one man-hour. As a result, despite significant reduction in the number of plants and modest attrition in the workforce, production capacity rose from 103 to 112 million metric tons between 2003 and 2006.

Domestic raw steel production in 2007 totaled 56,437,000 tons through mid-July, with average capacity utilization at 84.1 percent compared to 90.2 percent for the same period in 2006. Imports of finished steel mill products amounted to 14.4 million tons, up 14.3 percent on an annualized basis from 2005, but 19.9 percent below record-high imports of 17.8 million tons in the first half of 2006. Canada, followed by China, South Korea, Mexico, and Brazil were the largest sources of U.S. imports. While U.S. imports of steel mill products exceed exports, the country is a net exporter of iron and steel scrap. Weakness in the U.S. housing industry and constrained consumer spending are negatively impacting domestic demand for steel. Global Insight’s industrial production index for iron and steel products is forecasted to dip from 116.9 in 2006 to 114.2 in 2007, but then rebound to 118.6 in 2008 and continue to climb steadily to 126.9 in 2012.

International investment in the U.S. Steel industry is growing, with Russia’s Evraz Group buying Oregon Steel, Brazilian steel producer Gerdau in the process of acquiring Chaparral Steel, Swedish subsidiary SSAB Canada purchasing IPSCO, German steel-producer ThyssenKrupp AG beginning work on a U.S. plant, and Russia’s Severstal involved in a joint venture in Mississippi. Industry analysts expect intercontinental mergers and acquisitions to continue.

Tariffs are an important concern for both U.S. steel producers and industries that utilize significant amounts of steel. Undertaking a five-year review, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted to leave antidumping orders on steel concrete reinforcing bars from seven countries, including China and Ukraine, in place. Countervailing and antidumping duties on hot-rolled carbon steel imports from 11 countries are currently being reviewed.

Alabama’s Iron and Steel Industry

Industry beginnings. The iron and steel industry has a storied history in Alabama. With ample supplies of iron ore, coal, and limestone, north Alabama, and in particular the Birmingham area, was well-positioned to be a center for iron and steel manufacturing. The industry began to flourish around Birmingham in the late 1800s, with southern investors and northern bankers coming together to finance the large capital investments required, while northern and midwestern engineers provided technological expertise. The largest of these blast furnace complexes were owned by the Tennessee Coal, Iron, and Railroad Company and the Sloss-Sheffield Steel and Iron Company. Industry development brought new rail lines to Birmingham and enabled the rapid post-Civil War growth that earned it the “Magic City” label and spawned the cities of Bessemer and Fairfield. Cast iron production flourished as well, with the raw materials in the area good for certain types of pipe—American Cast Iron Pipe Company (ACIPCO) was founded in Birmingham in 1905. Ultimately, however, the phosphorus content of the iron supply limited the area’s ability to produce high-quality steel products, although they were ideal for foundry pig iron, to the extent that in 1940 Birmingham provided 40 percent of the U.S. supply. Early iron and steel production also spread northeast of Birmingham to Gadsden, where Gulf States Steel began integrated steel mill operations around 1904.

Steel Mill Developments. The integrated steel mill founded in 1886 by the Tennessee Coal, Iron, and Railroad Company was acquired by Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel in 1909 and continues operation today as U.S. Steel-Fairfield Works. It is the state’s largest iron and steel mill with about 2,200 workers and a capacity of 2.4 million tons of raw steel and 640,000 tons of seamless tubular products annually. Gulf States Steel in Gadsden declared bankruptcy and closed in August 2000, idling about 1,700 employees. Despite local attempts to restore some operations, purchasers of the site dismantled the mill and shipped the equipment to a buyer in China.

With the growing use of electric arc furnace technology to produce steel in a mini-mill environment, location of a plant became more dependent on ease of transportation of scrap metal rather than on availability of basic raw materials. The earliest mini-mills were located in the Birmingham area, however. Birmingham Steel was incorporated by AEA Investors in 1983 and began operation with the acquisition of Birmingham Bolt Company’s rebar and merchant product mini-mills. Nucor bought its Birmingham operations after bankruptcy in 2002; Nucor-Birmingham has capacity for 600,000 tons of carbon steel reinforcing bars used in the construction industry annually. Also in 1983 CMC Steel Alabama became the second steel mini-mill for the Commercial Metals Group, producing structural steel materials in Birmingham; the plant’s workforce in 2006 numbered about 400.

Tuscaloosa Steel was created in 1984 as a joint venture of Tippins, O’Neal Steel, ACIPCO, and British Steel. British Steel (now Corus) became the sole owner in 1991. The plant began as a steckel mill using imported steel slabs, but the addition of an electric arc furnace in 1996 expanded capabilities and boosted capacity to 0.8 million tons annually. Corus Tuscaloosa was purchased by Nucor Steel in July 2004 and employed 345 in 2006. Trico Steel, a joint venture of LTV, Corus, and Sumitomo Metals Industries, constructed a $465 million plant in Decatur that became operational in 1997, with 300 employees and capacity of about 1.9 million tons of finished sheet steel per year. However, Trico filed for bankruptcy just four years later and in 2002 Charlotte-based Nucor purchased the assets of the company for over $116 million. Renamed Nucor Steel-Decatur LLC, the mill was upgraded and currently employs more than 600. The plant was named Alabama’s large Manufacturer of the Year in 2007. Nucor also purchased the adjacent former Worthington Industries cold rolling mill in 2004. IPSCO’s $425 million Mobile Steelworks mini-mill began production in April 2001, making discrete plate and hot rolled coil for machinery, rail car, ship, bridge, and other industrial products; capacity is 1.25 million tons per year. IPSCO was recently acquired by a Canadian subsidiary of Swedish company SSAB.

Foundry Developments. Birmingham’s iron and steel production continues to have a strong foundry emphasis. American Cast Iron Pipe maintains the headquarters it set up in Birmingham in 1905 and employs about 2,400 at its steel pipe and ductile iron pipe operations there. The 2,100 acre site with almost 60 acres of plant is the world’s largest iron pipe casting plant. U.S. Pipe’s Bessemer operation, which was founded as the Howard-Harrison Iron Company in 1889, is one of the original plants acquired by the company incorporated in 1899 as the United States Cast Iron Pipe and Foundry Company. After merging with the Sloss-Sheffield Steel and Iron Company in 1952, U.S. Pipe relocated its headquarters to Birmingham. U.S. Pipe was acquired by Jim Walter Corporation in 1969. The Bessemer plant employed over 300 in 2006 and another 200 employees work at the company’s Anniston plant. Jim Walter was renamed Walter Industries in 1991; Walter spun off Mueller Water Products in 2006, with operations including U.S. Pipe and a plant that employs around 600 in Albertville manufacturing fire hydrants. Sloss Industries continues operation under the Walter umbrella and produced 400,000 tons of furnace and foundry coke in 2006.

The Birmingham-based McWane Corporation was founded as McWane Cast Iron Pipe in 1921 by former American Cast Iron Pipe Company president, J.R. McWane. The company’s cast iron pipe operations in Birmingham employed about 300 in 2006. M and H Valve Company was acquired by McWane in the 1980s—the company had begun its history in 1854 in New York City; its cast iron valve operations relocated to Anniston in 1925 and employed almost 440 in 2006. Also headquartered in Birmingham, Citation began operation in 1974 with the purchase of Jones Foundry Company in Bessemer. Through acquisition, Citation also has metal components foundries in Brewton, Marion, and Columbiana and employs more than 1,200 at its Alabama foundry operations.

Looking to the Future. Although Alabama is not among the largest iron and steel producing states, the industry is a significant part of the state’s economy. In 2006 Alabama’s iron and steel industry had sales of almost $2.4 billion from approximately 47 iron and steel mill operations, four ferroalloy manufacturers, and around 37 foundries. Employment totaled more than 10,500. About 18 plants in the state that purchase iron and steel to manufacture pipes and tubes, rolled steel shapes, and steel wire provide a market for some of these iron and steel products. Largest among these companies are Hanna Steel, Southland Tube, and Tubular Products. Alabama’s industrial consumer base for steel products has grown markedly over the last decade with the state’s burgeoning auto industry and a strong commercial construction sector. The National Alabama Corporation railcar manufacturing plant to be built in the Florence-Muscle Shoals area will also be a heavy consumer of steel. The state’s solid base in the industry has helped attract new iron and steel producing companies and expansions of existing firms.

Current development includes ongoing construction of Nucor’s $167 million sheet steel galvanizing facility in Decatur. With capacity for about 500,000 tons annually, the plant will employ about 100 at completion in mid-2008 and utilize another 100 contract workers. In May 2007, U.S. Pipe announced that it will invest $45 million in a new, state-of-the art ductile iron pipe plant adjacent to its existing facility in Bessemer. The operation could come online early in 2009 with close to 100 jobs; it is the first new ductile iron pipe plant built in the United States in over 55 years. Alabama’s steel pipe production capacity will expand with construction of a Berg Spiral Pipe Corporation plant in Mobile. A venture of Panama City-based Berg Steel Pipe, the $75 million facility will employ more than 100 making spiral pipe used by the oil and gas industry. The state’s growing steel industry is bringing a related business to Millport in Lamar County—Steel Dust Recycling expects to recycle 110,000 tons per year of steel mill dust that is a byproduct of the EAF process. The plant should be operational in the second quarter of 2008 and employ 40.

Alabama’s iron and steel industry will see significant expansion with the state’s most recent economic development recruitment success—the massive $3.7 billion plant to be built by German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG in northern Mobile County. Slated for completion in 2010 with employment of 2,700, the plant will manufacture and process carbon and stainless steel for high-end manufacturers, including the automotive, construction, utility, appliance, and machinery manufacturing industries. Steel slabs will be imported for further processing from a ThyssenKrupp plant under construction in Brazil. The Alabama plant is expected to have a capacity of 4.1 million tons of carbon steel end products annually. Location of the plant in the United States gives a boost to the country’s steel industry outlook—prior to its announcement, industry analysts had thought a project of this magnitude unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Alabama Iron and Steel Industry 2006 (revised)


Employment
Business Sales
(millions)
Iron and steel mills
4,760
$1,390
Ferroalloy manufacturers
285
$77
Iron and foundries
5,460
$907
Total
10,505
$2,374

Source: Dun and Bradstreet.

 

Avoid Fear During The Economic Downturn

  • August 20th, 2019
AVOID FEAR DURING THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
February 16, 2009


Samuel N. Addy, Ph.D., Center for Business and Economic Research
Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama

So what is a business to do in an economic downturn, especially one that is as severe and complicated as what we are currently experiencing? The business cycle includes downturns, recessions, recoveries, expansions, booms, busts, and stagnation. Downturns and recessions are painful, but they occur less frequently and are of shorter duration. As a result, firms are usually unprepared for them. There is justifiably more focus on maximizing profits in the more frequent or longer periods of economic growth. Clearly, the strategy should switch to loss minimization during downturns without excluding the possibility of making some profit.

Business conduct and actions in a downturn typically run counter to those in economic recoveries or expansions for good reason. But should that always be the case? After all, the downturn affects industries and firms differently and there are still economic opportunities to be had. Fortunately, at least two guiding principles of business conduct apply in good times and bad: optimality and sustainability. The first, optimality, deals with doing what is best always because that is how payoff is guaranteed. The second principle helps in business decision making as regards right-sizing, exit, or entry. The suggestions provided in the rest of this article are guided by these two principles and borrow from five steps used in policy analysis as shown below.

Steps in Policy Analysis General Business Actions
1. Define the problem 1. Assess the situation realistically
2. Identify policy options 2. Identify possible actions (responses to assessment)
3. Estimate the impacts 3. Estimate the impacts of possible actions
4. Value the outcomes 4. Value the outcomes of each action
5. Make recommendation 5. Take preferred action(s)

Assess the situation realistically. Information and insight are necessary for this first step. It is important to know what is going on globally, nationally, regionally, and locally irrespective of the geographic coverage of the business’ market. For example, it is important to know that the United States, Europe, Japan, and several large developed countries are in recession. Many developing countries economies are slowing; including Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Commodity prices are falling and deflation is now the new focus of many central banks, at least for 2009. The U.S. economy was already slowing before the worst of the financial crisis hit in Sept/Oct 2008. Households, businesses, and governments are facing tighter credit and experiencing huge wealth (home value and equity) losses with high debt levels. Assessment is essential because increased uncertainty during economic downturns makes leadership and decision-making particularly difficult.

Market research, including communication with suppliers and customers, should be ongoing. Networking, including membership in associations and attendance at events, must continue. These activities do not cost much, but many businesses, especially small ones tend to reduce or eliminate them in a downturn. Ironically, this is when businesses have more time to engage in such activities and they are crucial to making realistic assessments. Information needs to be gathered on economic forecasts, industry projections, input price trends, demand projections, financial health of customers and suppliers, workforce issues, expected length of the downturn, company contracts in effect, etc. Two questions that must be answered in the assessment step are; (i) can the company withstand the downturn and (ii) what are the company’s prospects long term? The answers to these two questions will help with the second step.

Identify possible actions. In response to the assessment, possible actions that may need to be considered include closing shop, filing for bankruptcy, continuing business as usual, and restructuring. Business-as-usual is one case of restructuring which includes improving internal processes (to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance productivity), expanding and diversifying clientele, and right-sizing. It may be necessary to consider downsizing permanently, downsizing followed later by an expansion, or a permanent expansion. The possible actions to consider are influenced by whether or not the company is service-providing or goods-producing as well as the downturn’s effects on company operations and prospects. It is important to consider different options. For example, downsizing may involve laying workers off, reducing hours, or furloughs.

Estimate the impacts of possible actions. This step is essentially an estimation of the costs and benefits of each possible action and must recognize both quantitative and qualitative benefits and costs. As an example, if downsizing requires laying off workers, the intangibles those workers provided (e.g., team-building, leadership, productivity, institutional knowledge) must be listed. Wrong estimates of the true costs and benefits of each possible action can have devastating consequences as regards the preferred action(s) taken in the final step.

Value the outcomes of each action. Here, the net quantitative benefits of each possible action are determined and some value is placed on qualitative impacts (e.g., lost team-building and leadership skills, lost productivity and institutional knowledge, loss of unproductive workers). Valuing qualitative outcomes is especially critical to identifying the preferred action(s).

Take preferred action(s). The best action(s) is(are) selected here. The decision is also made as to the pace of taking these actions. For example, a downsizing could be undertaken gradually if certain contracts so require and so as to keep customers satisfied.

So what should businesses do in this downturn? Don’t just hunker down or retreat. Be wise in facing the challenges. Do not be afraid to spend. Expand networking and gather information. Determine if you can withstand the downturn. Diversify and expand revenue base and streams, if possible. Your workers are your ultimate resource; if you ask them to make sacrifices, assure them of rewards (e.g. profit-sharing, bonuses) when things get better. Thoroughly reconsider and make changes to the business plan. Try to stem losses and close shop if that is the best thing to do. One certainty is that so long as businesses are guided by optimality and sustainability principles, whatever actions they take will be the right ones.