Mobile Metro Area Report

Alabama Business Confidence Index™

Fourth Quarter 2023

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Business Confidence Ticks Upward but Remains Contractionary

Mobile’s ABCI grew 1.2 points to register at a moderately negative index of 44.2 in the Q4 2023 survey, signaling continued expectations for economic contraction. Metro business leaders are optimistic about increased industry hiring this quarter with a mildly expansionary index. The other five component indexes remained contractionary with values below 50, though four of the six component indexes did increase this quarter from their Q3 2023 levels, indicating milder levels of confidence in their negative forecasts. By far, the most confidently negative outlook was for the US economy, which has been contractionary since Q2 2022.

Fourth Quarter 2023 Outlook

Mobile Statewide
ABCI 44.2 48.2
Alabama Economy 45.2 48.0
US Economy 35.7 37.7
Industry Sales 46.4 53.3
Industry Profits 42.9 48.8
Industry Hiring 54.8 51.7
Industry Capital Expenditures 40.5 49.4

Index above 50 indicates an expansionary outlook as compared to last quarter.
Index below 50 indicates a contractionary outlook compared to last quarter.

Mobile Component Index Analysis

  • Alabama Economy: The metro’s economic index for Alabama decreased 4.8 points to reach a moderately contractionary 45.2 in the Q4 2023 survey, indicating renewed expectations for worsening statewide economic conditions.
  • US Economy: The Q4 2023 US economy outlook remained the Mobile’s most contractionary index after increasing 1.3 points to remain strongly negative at 35.7.
  • Industry Sales: Business leaders are forecasting a decrease in sales this quarter though with milder confidence. Mobile’s sales index registered at 46.4, which, though still contractionary, is 4.2 points higher than the Q3 2023 index.
  • Industry Profits: Mobile’s outlook for industry profit is moderately contractionary this quarter at 42.9 after a 2.3-point increase from Q3 2023.
  • Industry Hiring: Mobile panelists are forecasting increased hiring in Q4 2023 with a mildly confident index of 54.8, which is only 6.4 points above last quarter’s index. Hiring is the only component index to be expansionary this quarter.
  • Industry Capital Expenditures: The metro’s capital spending index decreased again this quarter, dipping 1.7 points to reach 40.5. This is the fourth quarter the index has been contractionary, indicating sustained expectations for decreasing capital expenditures.

 

Mobile Response Breakdown

Historical Mobile ABCI™ and Industry Component Indexes

ABCI Mobile in Context

Mobile’s business leaders have had contractionary forecasts since Q3 2022. The metro’s ABCI was initially pulled down by negative outlooks for the US economy and industry profits. In the subsequent quarters though, forecasts for profits have fluctuated between moderately contractionary and mildly positive while the US economic outlook has remained strongly contractionary. Expectations for sales were positive in the first half of 2023 but turned contractionary in Q3 and Q4. Capital spending forecasts have been contractionary for the entirety of 2023. The hiring index has registered as expansionary for most of 2023, briefly dipping to a mildly contractionary forecast in Q3.

Business confidence varied by metro in Q4 2023, with two metros’ ABCIs registering as expansionary while the remaining three had contractionary outlooks. Business leaders in Montgomery and Tuscaloosa are forecasting economic expansion this quarter with mildly confident ABCIs of 51.5 for both MSAs due to optimistic forecasts for industry growth. Huntsville’s ABCI was a neutral 49.8, indicating expectations for an overall continuation of last quarter’s economic conditions. Birmingham–Hoover had the lowest ABCI at a moderately confident contractionary index of 42.9, though Mobile was nearby at 44.2.

ABCI™ by Metro Area

Mobile ABCI™ Compared to Statewide ABCI™

 

The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank the Alabama business executives who completed the fourth quarter 2023 ABCI™ survey. This is the 88th consecutive quarter this report has been recorded, and it would not have been possible without your participation.
Be sure to log in during the December 1–15 survey window to record your opinions about economic prospects and industry performance looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024.

 

  &  Logo of the Birmingham Business Alliance

This report was produced in partnership between the Center for Business and Economic Research at the The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business and the Mobile Area Chamber of Commerce.

Analysis provided by Susannah Robichaux, Socioeconomic Analyst, Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Business, The University of Alabama.

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