Mobile Metro Area Report

Alabama Business Confidence Index™

First Quarter 2026

Forecasts for Growth from Mobile Business Leaders

Mobile business leaders are forecasting economic growth this quarter with a strongly confident index of 64.3, an increase of 7.3 points from last quarter’s moderately confident outlook. Metro panelists are anticipating improved economic conditions in the U.S. and Alabama economies in Q1 2026, as well as increased levels of industry activity compared to the previous quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter of expansionary forecasts for five of the six component indexes, indicating sustained expectations for growth. Only the hiring index was neutral last quarter, but this quarter, panelists are anticipating an increase in their hiring levels with strong confidence.

Index above 50 indicates positive outlook as compared to last quarter.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook compared to last quarter.

Mobile Component Index Analysis

• Alabama Economy: Mobile business leaders are forecasting improved statewide economic conditions in Q1 2026 with a strongly confident index of 67.2 after growing by 6.3 points from last quarter.
• US Economy: The US economic outlook increased 6.3 points to reach 65.6 in the Q1 2026 survey. This is the second quarter that the metro’s Alabama outlook has been strongly expansionary.
• Industry Sales: Mobile panelists are very confident that industry sales will increase this quarter compared to their Q4 2025 levels. The index increased 7.8 points to reach 67.2 in the Q1 2026 survey.
• Industry Profits: Industry profits are expected to increase with a strongly confident index of 62.5. This is a 4.7-point increase from Q4 2025’s moderately expansionary profits index.
• Industry Hiring: Mobile’s Q1 2026 hiring index grew by 10.9 points to register at 60.9 after last quarter’s neutral outlook. All of the metro panelists expect to either increase or continue hiring at last quarter’s rate.
• Industry Capital Expenditures: After a 6.3-point increase from Q4 2025 to reach 62.5 in the Q1 2026 survey, metro panelists are anticipating increased capital expenditures with strong confidence this quarter.

ABCI Mobile in Context

Though several recent quarters do not have data due to insufficient participation, Mobile’s business confidence seems to follow the same general trends as the statewide forecasts, though sometimes the magnitude of confidence is different. In 2023, the ABCIs for Mobile and the state were contractionary, with Mobile panelists forecasting worse economic conditions for the U.S. government as well as decreased levels of capital spending for all four quarters. Since Q2 2025, Mobile’s ABCIs have been above the state ABCIs, as Mobile’s panelists have forecasted growth with higher confidence than their counterparts throughout the state.

For the second consecutive quarter, all five of Alabama’s largest metro areas have an expansionary outlook, though the level of confidence in those forecasts varies significantly. Mobile had the highest metro ABCI at 64.3, communicating strongly confident expectations for improved economic conditions in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025. Tuscaloosa had a moderately confident outlook of 56.9, while business leaders in Montgomery, Huntsville, and Birmingham all had much milder confidence in their expansionary forecasts. More details can be found in the Statewide ABCI report.

The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank the Alabama business executives who completed the fourth quarter 2025 ABCI™ survey. This is the 96th consecutive quarter this report has been recorded, and it would not have been possible without your participation.
Be sure to log in during the December 1–15 survey window to record your opinions about economic prospects and industry performance looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026.

This report was produced by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business.

Analysis provided by Susannah Robichaux, Socioeconomic Analyst, Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Business, The University of Alabama.