Huntsville Metro Area Report

Alabama Business Confidence Index™

First Quarter 2025

Huntsville Businesses Anticipate First Quarter Expansion

Huntsville business leaders are forecasting economic growth with strong confidence in the Q1 2025 ABCI survey. The most recent ABCI registered at 61.4, which is a 12.2-point increase from Q4 2024’s mildly contractionary outlook and is the highest the index has reached since Q3 2021. All of the component indexes increased significantly this quarter as business leaders forecast growth compared to last quarter with moderate to strong confidence. Five of the six component indexes grew by more than 10 points, with the most significant change being the 18.1-point upward swing of the US outlook.

Index above 50 indicates positive outlook as compared to last quarter.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook compared to last quarter.

Huntsville Component Index Analysis

• Alabama Economy: The Alabama outlook grew 12.2 points to reach a strongly confident expansionary index of 63.1.
• US Economy: After increasing 18.1 points from last quarter to reach 60.6, Huntsville’s forecast for the U.S. economy in Q1 2025 is expansionary for the first time since Q3 2021.
• Industry Sales: Over half of Huntsville business leaders are forecasting an increase in their industry sales in Q1 2025 compared to last quarter, causing the index to rise by 10.8-points to register at a strongly confident 63.6.
• Industry Profits: The metro’s profits index increased 8.5 points in the Q1 2025 survey from a neutral outlook to a moderately confident expansionary index of 58.5.
• Industry Hiring: After dipping below 50 last quarter for the first time since Q4 2016, Huntsville’s hiring index rebounded this quarter, rising 11.9 points to reach a strongly expansionary 61.4. Only 3.4 percent of panelists are anticipating decreased hiring compared to Q4 2024’s levels.
• Industry Capital Expenditures: The index for industry capital expenditures increased 11.0 points to reach 61.0 in the Q1 2025 survey, indicating strongly confident expectations for increased capital spending compared to last quarter.

ABCI Huntsville in Context

After two years of expansionary forecasts, Huntsville’s ABCI registered as mildly contractionary in Q1 2023. In the subsequent years, the metro’s quarterly business confidence has oscillated between expansionary and contractionary forecasts as the metro’s generally optimistic expectations for the industry component indexes like sales and hiring balanced with the decidedly contractionary outlook for the US economy. In the Q1 2024 survey, the national economy index was expansionary for the first time since Q3 2021, the Alabama outlook is the highest it has been since Q3 2019, and Huntsville panelists are expecting industry growth across all four component indexes.

Panelists in Montgomery had the highest metro ABCI this quarter at 63.3, with strongly confident expansionary forecasts for all of the component indexes. With an ABCI of 61.4, Huntsville had the highest industry sales and hiring indexes of the four participating metros. Birmingham-Hoover followed closely with a Q1 2025 ABCI of 60.6 and notably high expectations for growth in capital spending compared to last quarter. Business leaders in Tuscaloosa expressed moderate confidence in their expansionary forecast with moderate to strong values for all their component indexes. There was not enough participation to include Mobile’s outlook this quarter.

The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank the Alabama business executives who completed the first quarter 2025 ABCI™ survey. This is the 93rd consecutive quarter this report has been recorded, and it would not have been possible without your participation.
Be sure to log in during the March 1–15 survey window to record your opinions about economic prospects and industry performance looking ahead to the second quarter of 2025.

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This report was produced in partnership between the Center for Business and Economic Research at the The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business and the Huntsville Area Chamber of Commerce.

Analysis provided by Susannah Robichaux, Socioeconomic Analyst, Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Business, The University of Alabama.