Migration is the Primary Driver of Alabama’s Uneven Growth: Findings from U.S. Census Vintage 2020–2025 Estimates
- April 24th, 2026
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Alabama’s total population grew by 167,651 residents between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2025, reaching 5,193,088. Annual growth peaked during 2023–2024 at 0.88 percent, with a comparable growth rate of 0.81 percent between 2022 and 2023. Migration, particularly domestic migration, reflecting residents relocating to Alabama from other states, has been the primary driver of population growth throughout the period.
The most recent year reveals emerging demographic headwinds. A broad national slowdown in international migration has also affected Alabama, with international migrants declining from 15,763 in 2023–2024 to 8,946 in 2024–2025, which is a drop of 6,817 migrants, or 43.7 percent. This sharp contraction in international migration contributed to downward population pressure in the state’s most recent estimate period, tempering what had been an accelerating growth trajectory.
Despite this recent deceleration in population growth, Alabama’s five-year growth trend remains solid, exceeding the national average. However, growth is uneven and is concentrated in a handful of metropolitan areas.
Figure 1. Alabama Total Population, April 2020–July 2025
Alabama’s Population Growth Compared to Other States
Alabama’s 3.34 percent cumulative growth rate between 2020 and 2025 exceeded the national rate of 3.10 percent but ranked ninth among the Census-defined region of the South, which comprises 16 south-eastern states and the District of Columbia. This region grew at 5.98 percent — nearly double Alabama’s pace — led by Florida (8.93%), South Carolina (8.83%), and Texas (8.78%), each sustained by high and consistent in-migration flows.
No comparison better illustrates Alabama’s relative rank than South Carolina. In 2010, Alabama’s population of 4,779,736 exceeded South Carolina’s 4,625,364 by 154,372 residents. By the 2020 Census, the two states populations diverged, and by July 2025, South Carolina’s population surpassed Alabama’s population by 377,186 residents, having grown at a rate more than two-and-a-half times faster over the 2020–2025 period.
Yet Alabama’s trajectory remains positive. Despite the widening gap with South Carolina, the state consistently added residents each year — a distinction not shared by Mississippi, Louisiana, and West Virginia, the only Southern states to record population losses since 2020.
Figure 2. Alabama Outpaces the Nation but Trails Most Southern Peers in Population Growth, 2020–2025
Figure 3 plots each U.S. state by its natural change rate (horizontal axis) and net migration rate (vertical axis) between 2020 and 2025, revealing the two demographic forces driving — or constraining — population change across the country. Southern states and the District of Columbia are labeled; the remaining states appear as unlabeled grey dots.
Alabama, distinguished in black, sits in the upper-left quadrant: natural decrease paired with positive net in-migration. Between 2020 and 2025, Alabama recorded 303,445 births against 331,008 deaths — a natural decrease of 27,563 residents. Net migration of 195,050 more than offset that loss, producing the state’s overall net gain of 167,651 residents. Domestic migrants accounted for 141,048 of that total, or 72.3 percent, with international migrants contributing the remaining 54,002. Alabama’s population dynamics are shared by several Southern states, including Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Delaware, Kentucky, and Arkansas, where deaths now outpace births, but in-migration more than compensates for the downward pressure of relatively high death rates on overall population change.
Alabama fared better than Louisiana, where the state’s population dynamics are the inverse of Alabama’s dynamics, in which there were more births than deaths, but net negative migration. In comparison, similar to Alabama, Mississippi and West Virginia experienced natural decrease; however, in-migration was too modest to compensate for the excess deaths over births, resulting in cumulative population decline over the period.
Figure 3. Migration Is Key to Population Growth in Alabama and Across Most U.S. States, 2020–2025
Population Growth by County
Alabama’s statewide growth obscures dramatic heterogeneity across its 67 counties. In absolute terms, Madison County led all counties with a net gain of 45,358 residents between 2020 and 2025, followed by Baldwin (35,983), Limestone (19,365), Lee (15,544), and Shelby (15,521). These five counties alone accounted for 131,771 residents — nearly 79 percent of Alabama’s entire statewide net population gain of 167,651, underscoring the geographic concentration of the state’s population growth.
In contrast, Jefferson County recorded the largest numerical loss at −8,588 residents, followed by Dallas (−3,325), Mobile (−3,154), and Montgomery (−3,062) counties. Alone, these four counties accounted for nearly 11 percent of all county-level population losses recorded over the period. Among Alabama’s 67 counties, 34, or just over half of all counties, recorded net population losses between 2020 and 2025, even as the statewide total continued to grow.
Figure 4. Numeric Population Change Across Alabama’s 67 Counties, 2020–2025
Across Alabama’s 67 counties, Figure 5 shows that the rate of population change ranges from nearly 19 percent growth to nearly a 13 percent decline — a 32-percentage-point spread that captures the magnitude of the state’s demographic divide.
Limestone County reported the highest growth rate at 18.7 percent, which is nearly five times the statewide rate of 3.3 percent, reflecting rapid in-migration. Baldwin (15.5%) and Madison (11.7%) round out the top three, each driven by strong and sustained domestic in-migration. Of the 67 counties, 33 grew faster than the statewide rate of 3.3 percent, while 34 grew more slowly or recorded outright population losses from 2020 to 2025.
Among counties with the steepest rate of decline, most are in Alabama’s Black Belt region. Perry (−12.8%) and Lowndes (−9.3%) recorded the steepest losses in the state. Figure 5 also illustrates significant proportional decline among small, rural counties. For example, Macon (−7.2%), Greene (−8.6%), Dallas (−8.6%), and Wilcox (−8.8%) each recorded population losses representing a substantial share of their relatively small 2020 base populations. Conecuh (−6.0%), Choctaw (−6.0%), and Sumter (−6.1%) also recorded notable declines.
Figure 5. Rate of Population Change Across Alabama’s 67 Counties, 2020–2025
Figure 6 illustrates all 67 Alabama counties by their natural change rate (horizontal axis) and net migration rate (vertical axis) between 2020 and 2025, highlighting the two demographic forces shaping population change at the county level. The quadrant structure organizes counties into four distinct demographic profiles based on the direction of each force.
Nine counties sit in the upper-right quadrant, recording both positive natural increase and net in-migration —dual population growth forces. Limestone, Madison, and Lee counties anchor this group, each benefiting from younger age structures and relatively high in-migration flows. The upper-left quadrant is the modal category, which consists of counties with a demographic profile similar to the state, where natural decrease (more deaths than births) offset by sufficient in-migration to yield net population gains.
All the counties in the lower-left quadrant experienced both natural decrease and net out-migration. Montgomery stands alone in the lower-right quadrant — the only county, in Alabama, that had natural increase alongside net out-migration.
Figure 6. Most Alabama Counties Experience Natural Decrease, but Migration is the key to Population Growth, 2020-2025
Figure 7 tracks shifts in county population rankings across Alabama’s 67 counties between April 2020 and July 2025, with black lines indicating counties that rose in rank, red lines indicating counties that fell, and grey lines indicating counties whose population rank remained unchanged over the period.
Henry County recorded the most dramatic upward rank of any county, climbing four positions from the 51st largest county to the 47th largest. Limestone and Autauga each rose two positions, while Randolph and Cleburne also gained two ranks — all reflecting sustained in-migration over the period. Jefferson, Baldwin, Morgan, Lee, and 28 other counties held their rankings entirely unchanged from 2020 to 2025.
The sharpest declines belong to Russell and Macon, each falling three positions, followed by Montgomery and Dallas, which each dropped by two ranks. Montgomery’s fall from 5th to 7th is notable, given that it is the only county in the state with a natural increase, but negative net migration. Mobile dropped one position, falling from 2nd to 3rd as Madison County’s rapid growth pushed it to now be the state’s second largest county.
Figure 7. Shifts in Alabama County Population Rankings, 2020–2025
Population Growth by MSA
Figure 8 shows that Huntsville MSA recorded the largest absolute gain of any Alabama metro at 64,723 residents, or a growth rate of 13.2 percent. The Huntsville MSA only consists of two counties (Madison and Limestone), and it is the second largest MSA in the state with a total population at 556,444 residents. The Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSA reported the highest growth rate at 15.5 percent, adding 35,983 residents, and has a population estimate of 267,761.
Birmingham, Alabama’s largest MSA, spans six counties, and has a population of nearly 1.2 million, but only added 17,134 residents — a modest 1.5 percent gain relative to the size of the metro.
The growth of the Birmingham MSA is largely driven by the growth of two counties in the MSA– Shelby and St. Clair. Auburn-Opelika (7.3 percent) and Tuscaloosa (4.5 percent) also recorded solid growth, driven in part by the presence of large and growing state universities.
The Mobile MSA had the largest population loss among all the metros, losing 3,154 residents, or a decline of 0.8 percent. Anniston-Oxford also loss population, falling by 605 residents (-0.5 percent). The Montgomery MSA, which includes four counties, recorded marginal growth of just 2,697 residents, or 0.7 percent, with Autauga and Elmore counties driving the MSA’s growth.
Figure 8. Total Population and Population Change among Alabama’s 12 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 2020–2025
Figure 9 reveals that the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSA recorded the highest net migration rate among all Alabama metros despite having more deaths than births. The Huntsville MSA recorded the second-highest net migration rate and sits in the upper-right quadrant, and it is one of four metros that recorded both positive natural increase and positive net in-migration from 2020 to 2025. Florence-Muscle Shoals, Dothan, and Decatur cluster in the upper-left quadrant with modest positive migration rates offsetting natural decrease.
The Mobile MSA is the only metro in the lower-right quadrant, with more deaths than births paired with net out-migration. Anniston-Oxford, also shown in red, has more people moving into the MSA than out, but it sits just slightly above the migration axis, and the MSA’s steep rate of natural decrease, results in cumulative population loss over the five-year period.
Figure 9. Natural Change Rate and Net Migration Rate, Alabama Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 2020–2025
Conclusion
In summary, this analysis unravels a consistent story about Alabama’s demographic trajectory between 2020 and 2025. The state grew by 167,651 residents and outpaced the national average, but that growth was not evenly distributed as more than half of Alabama’s 67 counties loss population over the period, and natural decrease (more deaths than births) was the norm across many counties and metropolitan areas. Migration was the key engine of statewide population gain, concentrated in a small number of high-growth counties and selected metropolitan areas that benefited from high rates of domestic in-migration.
Analysis and text by Nyesha Black, Ph.D., Director of Demographics and Socioeconomic Analysis at CBER.
