Alabama Population Gains Steady Through 2025

Alabama Population Gains Steady Through 2025

  • August 6th, 2019

Alabama Population Gains Steady Through 2025

Alabama will see the 17th largest net gain in population over the next three decades, enabling it to hold its place as the country’s 22nd most populous state. The state will continue to be home to 1.6 percent of the nation’s residents, according to new population projections for states from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. And while the average Alabamian will be older, the race and sex composition of the population will keep looking – statistically speaking – just about the same.

From an estimated 4,253,000 Alabama residents in 1995, a projected gain of 198,000 will bring the state’s population to 4,451,000 in the year 2000. This 4.7 percent increase is just below the 5.1 percent gain estimated for the first half of the 1990s. Another 773,000 new residents are expected between 2000 and 2025, for a gain of 971,000 during the three decades from 1995 to 2025. The Census Bureau projects that Alabama’s population will total 5,224,000 in 2025.

Two-thirds of the projected population increase will be due to net migration, which is a positive reflection on Alabama’s attractiveness as a place to live and work. In particular, about 577,000 more people are expected to move into the state from other states than move out between 1995 and 2025, ranking Alabama 9th in net internal migrants. The state will continue to see slower gains from international migrants, with an expected 71,000 ranking just 34th. Natural increase will account for another 196,000 residents.

One statistic that will change is the age composition of Alabama’s population. The population aged 18 and over is expected to increase from 3.2 million or 74.6 percent in 1995 to 3.3 million or 75.2 percent in 2000. By 2025, the voting age population should reach 4.1 million or 78.2 percent of the total.

The number of youth (under age 20) in the state will grow by just 67,000, or 5.6 percent, during the three decades. This lack of growth will have important planning implications for educators and employers. From 28.3 percent of Alabama’s population in 1995, the percentage under 20 will drop to 24.4 percent in 2025.

As the first of the Baby Boom generation reaches retirement in 2011, the growth of the population aged 65 and older will accelerate. Alabama is expected to see 20.5 percent of its population falling into the 65+ group in 2025, up from 13 percent in 1995. That should give the state the 20th highest proportion of elderly in 2025. Marketers and activities catering to this age group can be poised for the tremendous gains expected from 2011 to 2025.

Slow growth in the youth population and more rapid growth in the elderly will contribute to slowing growth of the labor force. The number of Alabamians aged 20 to 64 is expected to increase by 385,000 from 1995 to 2025, a 14.7 percent gain. The dependency ratio – the number of youth and elderly for every 100 persons of working age will rise from 70.4 dependents per 100 workers in 1995 to 81.3 in 2025.

During these three decades, the segment of the population that is very old will grow slowly but steadily. From 58,000 Alabamians 85 and over in 1995, it will reach 104,000 in 2025. Providers of care for the very old should be prepared for a surge in demand after 2030 as baby boomers enter this age group.

Alabama’s population will continue to be about 52 percent female throughout the projection period. And the ethnic composition of the population will change only slightly. The percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic white is expected to decline from 72.8 in 1995 to 71.3 percent in 2025. At the same time, the African American category will increase from 25.5 percent of the total population in 1995 to 26 percent in 2025. The Hispanic population is projected to grow from 0.7 to 1.2 percent. A little less than 2 percent of the state’s population will be Asian or American Indian in 2025.

Between 1995 and 2025, the number of non-Hispanic white Alabama residents should increase by 630,000, compared to a gain of 275,000 for African Americans. There are expected to be 7,000 more American Indians, 28,000 more Asians, and 32,000 more persons of Hispanic origin in 2025.

Finally, the number and proportion of Alabama’s voting age population that is non-Hispanic white is projected at 2.5 million, or 74.8 percent in the year 2000. At the same time, the African American voting age population should total 782,000, or 23.4 percent.